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re: "If BH could just be average...."

Posted on 9/3/15 at 6:51 pm to
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422561 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 6:51 pm to
quote:

Yards per play and points per play (offense and defense)are considered pure stats because they arent skewed by anything.

points are via field position and sometimes how scoring
Posted by Rickdaddy4188
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2011
46625 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 6:53 pm to
quote:

He's not doing it with a true sophomore with 1 start under his belt. 


Exactly. Posters on here saying 250 passing yards per game is doable and isn't expecting too much ,are crazy. Jamarcus Russell' s 2006 season was the 2nd best passing season in lsu history and he threw for 240 yards per game. Mett in 2013 threw for 237 yards per game.
Asking a true sophomore to average more passing yards per game than JRUSS and Mett is crazy.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422561 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 6:57 pm to
quote:

Jamarcus Russell' s 2006 season was the 2nd best passing season in lsu history and he threw for 240 yards per game.

well, to be fair, CFB in 2015 is nothing like CFB in 2006
Posted by Peazey
Metry
Member since Apr 2012
25418 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 7:07 pm to
quote:

Les Miles has had 3 qbs start in the NFL. what other team in the sec can claim that in the same time frame?




Those 3 Qb's accounted for 3 years of high level QB play out of 10 years. That's 30% of the time. Regardless of how it may stack up against other teams that is a minority of the time. The safe bet is to understand that it probably won't happen and be pleasantly surprised if it does.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422561 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 7:11 pm to
and 2 of those QBs were saban's recruits developed by saban's OC (who miles did not like or get along with)

#Hadtosayit
Posted by Guava Jelly
Bawston
Member since Jul 2009
11651 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 7:33 pm to
quote:

saban's recruits

These words make me more angry than anything else in all of sports. Give me a fricking break, man.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422561 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 7:37 pm to
well if miles had more success (esp at QB) after saban's recruits left, the argument wouldn't be nearly as popular

miles has yet to recruit a QB from HS who has been a good college QB

hopefully harris breaks the pattern of miles' tenure at LSU
Posted by Rickdaddy4188
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2011
46625 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 7:44 pm to
quote:

well, to be fair, CFB in 2015 is nothing like CFB in 2006


But lsu's offense has remained a run first ball controlled offense. I'm comparing 2015 lsu qb to past lsu seasons.
Posted by Rickdaddy4188
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2011
46625 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 7:48 pm to
quote:

Those 3 Qb's accounted for 3 years of high level QB play out of 10 years.


2009 JJ had a decent year too.
2200 yards
17tds -7 ints
61.5 completion %
138.7 qb rating


Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
422561 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 7:51 pm to
that's the low end of mediocre

now 2009 did instill a hope in JJ, which was destroyed by his slide from that peak
Posted by Rickdaddy4188
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2011
46625 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 7:55 pm to
quote:

points are via field position and sometimes how scoring





It's still a pure stat because it shows how much scoring per play your offense achieved and isn't skewed by scheme or tempo.
Posted by Rickdaddy4188
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2011
46625 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 8:09 pm to
quote:

that's the low end of mediocre


Not by lsu standards.


If you were to ask LSU fans if they wanted to sign a qb that would have less than 3 years worth of starts and he would finish top 6 in every major passing statistic in lsu history , everyone of them would say yes.
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
26648 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 8:38 pm to
quote:

I think the word you are looking for is experienced. He's not doing it with a true sophomore with 1 start under his belt.


I guess Jarrett Lee, Jordan Jefferson, and Mett never existed.
Posted by Peazey
Metry
Member since Apr 2012
25418 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 8:41 pm to
Really just talking about expecting anything more than average here. Even if you count that year as a "high level of qb play" we're still only at 40%.

Really I don't like the position where people's assumptions are putting me in a position to feel like I said something I didn't. All I said was to not have unreasonable expectations.
This post was edited on 9/3/15 at 8:42 pm
Posted by c on z
Zamunda
Member since Mar 2009
127411 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 8:46 pm to
quote:

Really just talking about expecting anything more than average here. Even if you count that year as a "high level of qb play" we're still only at 40%.


Nearly half of Miles tenure consisted of 2 QB LSU was basically stuck with. During that stretch on the recruiting trail, there has been some misses and some bad luck.
Posted by Rickdaddy4188
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2011
46625 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 8:47 pm to
quote:

Even if you count that year as a "high level of qb play" w


Na I wasn't considering 2009.as high level, just a average season that didn't have crap qb play.
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
26648 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 8:54 pm to
quote:

and yet you think 250 passing yards per game is doable with a 1st year starter that's a true sophomore.


I didn't say 250 passing yards per game . You really don't think it's possible that Brandon Harris could hit 207 yards passing and 38.5 yards rushing per game? Sure I know it hasn't happened before, but we haven't had a game 1 starter QB (not talking Perriloux who only started two games) with Harris' combo of arm strength, and mobility.

You have to let go of the past. Just last year Fournette broke the LSU freshman rushing record with an awful passing game, the OL not being able to block the first 5 or so games, and musical chairs at RB.

Jordan Jefferson, the guy so many people think sucks, put up nearly 2200 passing yards and 17 TDs with awful support around him (minus LaFell and Toliver), as a true sophomore in less than 12 games. You don't think a guy as talented as Harris couldn't do better with a talent overload and experienced squad around him?

Am I taking crazy pills now?
This post was edited on 9/3/15 at 9:00 pm
Posted by KingofthePoint
Member since Feb 2009
10134 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 10:28 pm to
quote:

I guess Jarrett Lee, Jordan Jefferson, and Mett never existed.

Lee's existence is a big reason Les is hesitant to let a young QB throw it around.

Jefferson is closer, but the 2009 team did not have the running game that this team will have. We won't need to throw it as much.

I guess I missed the part where Mett started as a true sophomore.
Posted by Datbayoubengal
Port City
Member since Sep 2009
26648 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 10:55 pm to
quote:

guess I missed the part where Mett started as a true sophomore.


You also said experience. Mett did not have any D-1 experience. I don't care about JUCO crap. Mett didn't have any SEC or power 5 experience unless you consider the garbage snaps against Ole Miss experience.

Miles didn't hesitate to throw it 27 times per game. With Jefferson 25 times per game, with Lee nearly 29 times per game. With 320 attempts, that would put him right in the average of Jefferson. If you split the difference in Mett's 10.4 ypa and Jennings 7.1 ypa, you get 8.75 ypa. I think he could hit around 8.4 ypa with our experienced vertical passing threats and close to 60% completion if not more because he has better accuracy than Jennings.

You guys are waaay too safe. You're pretty much saying that he's going to do slightly worse than Jefferson, and if that's the case, then that's disappointing given all the pluses he has over Jefferson during the same point in their careers.
Posted by LosLobos111
Austere
Member since Feb 2011
45385 posts
Posted on 9/3/15 at 11:18 pm to
Something like

61.5 comp pct
8 YPA
2600 yards
20 tds
<10 picks

couple of rush TDs

I'd be very happy

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