- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Bama opens as 7 pt favorite over LSU
Posted on 11/1/15 at 2:38 pm to Captain Crown
Posted on 11/1/15 at 2:38 pm to Captain Crown
It seems like they want a lot of money to go to Bama with that money line.
0
Posted on 11/1/15 at 2:45 pm to Last call
quote:
Of course it is how it works.
No. N it is not
quote:
Why was an unranked usc team favored over top 6 utah?
Because MORE people know of USC than Utah. More money would be on USC if just an even bet. The line is set to entice people to bet evenly on either side. USC bias (in the betting PUBLIC) accounts for that.
Bama has the same public "respect" bias.
I have family that works in the industry. A bookmaker has stated that IF "vegas" knew that the New England Patriots were going to wear LSU uniforms and play in the game....AND the public did NOT know it...the line would be exactly the same.
The opening line is ONLY a guess as to where the money wants to go. Otherwise, the line would never MOVE. It moves because of betting. So, BETTING controls the line. Not the expectation of the "vegas"
Posted on 11/1/15 at 2:50 pm to thegreatboudini
I started watching that and was all
stuck it out to the end and was like
Posted on 11/1/15 at 2:50 pm to BlackHelicopterPilot
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 11:57 pm
Posted on 11/1/15 at 2:52 pm to The Baker
quote:
Haydel
you make a point
Posted on 11/1/15 at 3:04 pm to Lsu101205
quote:The team that opened as the favorite beat the shite out of the one people swung the spread by betting on.
Florida opened at like -3 and by game time Georgia was at -1.
How did that work out.
So you just proved his point.
It's not an arbitrary, meaningless number. Some of you who believe this are idiots. It's definitely a concern.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 3:06 pm to BlackHelicopterPilot
Totally disagree with that assessment. Knowing a bookie is not knowing someone in the industry. The lines are not 'guesses' based on how they think they will get it 50/50. How they truly come up with a point spread will never be known to the public and certainly wouldn't be openly discussed on Tigerdroppings. I've followed Vegas and spreads for close to 20 years-not how it works.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 3:08 pm to PurpleNGoldFan
quote:
Knowing a bookie i
I never said a thing about a bookie.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 3:10 pm to TigerBR1111
Well if that's the case... the Ritter Hustle will be off the charts Saturday!
Posted on 11/1/15 at 3:17 pm to TigerBR1111
quote:
Should work down to 51/2 by kickoff
it's down to 5 1/2 within an hour after the opening.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 3:22 pm to Last call
quote:They were certainly wrong when we were 2 1/2 point favs on 1996.
This is not good news for tiger fans. Vegas is better than anyone knowing who the better team is. Hope they are wrong on this one
Posted on 11/1/15 at 3:57 pm to Lsu101205
Vegas sets the lines based on perception. The perception of most betters is that Bama is the better team.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 4:03 pm to Lsu101205
Any bama fans wanna play???? I'll give you bama and 3 points. Yup the Tigers win by 4 at least.......
Posted on 11/1/15 at 4:31 pm to BlackHelicopterPilot
quote:this is not what i have read. the opening line is their best guess as to how the game will play out. the line is moved to entice betting so they will make money. i don't know that all books work that way, just the ones i read about.
The opening line is ONLY a guess as to where the money wants to go
Posted on 11/1/15 at 4:36 pm to TigerBR1111
this is about the 27th thread over the last 3 weeks saying this line has "opened" at X. 
Posted on 11/1/15 at 4:38 pm to Lsu101205
FWIW the big books have not opened yet.
LSU already moving to +5.5
11/01 2:55pm ALA-7 -105 LSU+7 -115
11/01 3:00pm ALA-6.5 -105 LSU+6.5 -115
11/01 3:10pm ALA-5.5 -110 LSU+5.5 -110
11/01 3:55pm ALA-5.5 -115 LSU+5.5 -105
LSU already moving to +5.5
11/01 2:55pm ALA-7 -105 LSU+7 -115
11/01 3:00pm ALA-6.5 -105 LSU+6.5 -115
11/01 3:10pm ALA-5.5 -110 LSU+5.5 -110
11/01 3:55pm ALA-5.5 -115 LSU+5.5 -105
This post was edited on 11/1/15 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:20 pm to bfniii
quote:
this is not what i have read. the opening line is their best guess as to how the game will play out.
then read this...
quote:
"The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it's much more complicated, but it's not."
What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers' prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all - their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as 'dividing the action').
LINK
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:26 pm to Last call
Actually fpi is more accurate than Vegas.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 5:27 pm to Purplengoldtigerfan
LSU +6.5 on 5dimes right now
Page 2 of 5
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News