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Message
re: Bama opens as 7 pt favorite over LSU
Posted on 11/1/15 at 7:02 pm to GRTiger
Posted on 11/1/15 at 7:02 pm to GRTiger
quote:
Are you sure? It moving around is why I thought it was the ML. Do we know it is?
No, that's just the cost of the bet. A money line would have one positive and one negative number. Right now, for example, the VI consensus on the World Series tonight is Mets -145, Royals +130.
I don't fully understand the specifics around moving the bet around (adjusting the juice) on a spread bet, but it's their attempt to further balance the pool without moving the line.
0
Posted on 11/1/15 at 7:02 pm to TigerBR1111
And?? Memphis was a 20 point dog to Ole Miss, FL was too how'd that end!!
frick Vegas!!
frick Vegas!!
Posted on 11/1/15 at 7:13 pm to Last call
quote:
Of course it is how it works. Why was an unranked usc team favored over top 6 utah? Vegas thinks bama is the better team. They have their own poll and its always the most legit poll. Lets hope the tigers can prove them wrong!
"Vegas" = global betting market. The wisdom of crowds is probably better wisdom than any individual, but it is still just a probabilistic statement and not an absolute one.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 7:19 pm to Tigerinthehollow
quote:They don't care about perception.
If you think perception doesn't influence a line, you are absolutely ignorant.
And no one said Vegas knows exactly what the final margin will be, just that they base the line on what they believe to be an advantage by one team over another.
Stop being a nut. No one is saying that Bama is absolutely going to win.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 7:54 pm to blueboy
They want the LSU betting early and people are gonna take LSU +7.
They'll get Bama betting when it gets -5 or less (to even out the betting)
They'll get Bama betting when it gets -5 or less (to even out the betting)
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:08 pm to GRTiger
When you see Bama -7 -130 it means they dont want to move the number off a key number 7. So they adjust its price.
If you take bama you bet 130 to win 100. If you take LSU its 100 to win 120.
It means money is coming in on bama and they dont want to move it to -8 so they simply adjust its price.
If you take bama you bet 130 to win 100. If you take LSU its 100 to win 120.
It means money is coming in on bama and they dont want to move it to -8 so they simply adjust its price.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:08 pm to Last call
quote:
Of course it is how it works. Why was an unranked usc team favored over top 6 utah? Vegas thinks bama is the better team. They have their own poll and its always the most legit poll. Lets hope the tigers can prove them wrong!
You're an idiot and clearly have no clue how Vegas operates when it comes to sports betting.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:16 pm to TigerBR1111
Have to go there and earn some respect 
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:17 pm to grape nutz
quote:
If you take bama you bet 130 to win 100. If you take LSU its 100 to win 120.
Where are you seeing these numbers?
This post was edited on 11/1/15 at 8:18 pm
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:18 pm to BlackHelicopterPilot
Jesus, some of y'all are confused. Its a market. With rational agents(smart money) who price out the irrational agents. Joe Blow from Tuscaloosa irrationally betting $100 on his favorite team isn't going to matter. There are bankrolled cappers who do this for a living. If the line gets far from their expected result, they jump on it. How many people are on each side are irrelevant. How much money is is what matters. So the finite "stupid money" ends up being without effect. It will return itself to equilibrium. No different than the stock market or anything.
Vegas isn't magically perfect because some people who work for casinos are really big football fans. Its just a reflection of a market made relatively perfect by the fact that if the line is wrong by more than the 10% juice leeway, the most rational sports betters(pro handicappers) will bet on the favorable line. And they won't stop. If its high positive equity value, they will bet it until its not.
Vegas isn't magically perfect because some people who work for casinos are really big football fans. Its just a reflection of a market made relatively perfect by the fact that if the line is wrong by more than the 10% juice leeway, the most rational sports betters(pro handicappers) will bet on the favorable line. And they won't stop. If its high positive equity value, they will bet it until its not.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:19 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
"Vegas" = global betting market. The wisdom of crowds is probably better wisdom than any individual, but it is still just a probabilistic statement and not an absolute one.
Vegas is about that action, boss
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:20 pm to GRTiger
I think he's just using those numbers as an example, although that is a money line example...
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:22 pm to RB10
quote:
You're an idiot and clearly have no clue how Vegas operates when it comes to sports betting.
Not really. That is, more or less, how it works.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:32 pm to ForeLSU
yes it was just an example. But no a moneyline is without a spread. Im explaining why a line sometimes has different juice than -110.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:34 pm to grape nutz
Are there no actual ML numbers out there for this game yet? I understand how ML works, I just assumed wrongly that those numbers in the link were the ML numbers.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:40 pm to RB10
quote:
RB10
Vegas has had this as. -7.5 to -6.5 line for two weeks. Take emotion out of it and it will start to make sense.
At the end of the day it's one score, potentially one play. But Bama is at home, their defense is legit, ours has given up big plays against every opponent we've played. And that's not counting special teams.
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:45 pm to GRTiger
quote:
Are there no actual ML numbers out there for this game yet?
don't know, I admittedly don't follow this much, are there ever money lines for CFB?
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:53 pm to TigerBR1111
Bama is 3-5 ATS this yr and 0-5 at home ATS. Last yr they were 5-9 and 3-4 at home ATS. Public bets em and Vegas takes their money
Posted on 11/1/15 at 8:53 pm to alajones
quote:
They were certainly wrong when we were 2 1/2 point favs on 1996.
LSU lost QB Tyler to injury on the first series of the game. Tyler threw a TD pass which was flagged before he was injured.
This post was edited on 11/1/15 at 8:54 pm
Posted on 11/1/15 at 9:01 pm to GRTiger
Not yet. They come out later with the totals. LSU will be about +200 at -7 on the ml.
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