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re: Lumber prices anyone building new Const
Posted on 9/1/20 at 8:53 pm to jkcooper92
Posted on 9/1/20 at 8:53 pm to jkcooper92
We ran into permitting issues and the bank extended our construction loan no problem. We got delayed 3 months.
0
Posted on 9/3/20 at 2:22 pm to jkcooper92
Rarely post but mostly lurk. I'm in the truss industry. Lumber is still rising. My lumber prices have nearly tripled, and that's if you can even find it to buy. When I find a load, I have to buy it no matter the cost, it will be gone within hours, someone else will snatch it up. It makes quoting extremely difficult when you don't know what you'll be paying for materials.
Here's how we got here. When Covid happened, mills either shut down completely or went to 50%. At the same time people that were sitting at home started building decks, remodeling, etc.. Contractors and suppliers like me never slowed down, we were still using as much lumber as we ever were. At the same time, when restrictions were lifted and mills started calling their workers back, they were now making more sitting at home than working. Until they get the mills staffed at 100%, the shortage will continue. Prices will not drop until there is unsold lumber sitting on the yard at the mills. There's no shortage of logs to process, there's a shortage of manpower to process them.
It's a scary time all the way around, people that are in the middle of a build, contractors, and suppliers like me. One of my customers at a lumber yard was quoting materials to a contractor about a week ago. The contractor asked him how long the quote is good for. He told him it's good until we hang up the phone.
Here's how we got here. When Covid happened, mills either shut down completely or went to 50%. At the same time people that were sitting at home started building decks, remodeling, etc.. Contractors and suppliers like me never slowed down, we were still using as much lumber as we ever were. At the same time, when restrictions were lifted and mills started calling their workers back, they were now making more sitting at home than working. Until they get the mills staffed at 100%, the shortage will continue. Prices will not drop until there is unsold lumber sitting on the yard at the mills. There's no shortage of logs to process, there's a shortage of manpower to process them.
It's a scary time all the way around, people that are in the middle of a build, contractors, and suppliers like me. One of my customers at a lumber yard was quoting materials to a contractor about a week ago. The contractor asked him how long the quote is good for. He told him it's good until we hang up the phone.
Posted on 9/3/20 at 2:30 pm to Cracker
meanwhile I paid more for one treated 2x6x10 than I can get per ton of pine chip-n-saw used to make lumber
Posted on 9/3/20 at 6:13 pm to chief2791
I spoke to a gentleman that runs a mill assembling crane mats yesterday. He said he was approached by a few different people to start cutting lumber when it started to spike but they opted out being prices will start correcting soon. I hope he’s right!
While you’re here how much difference (pricing wise) would it be for prefabbed trusses and walls compared to a traditional stick framing? I’ve always wondered that.
While you’re here how much difference (pricing wise) would it be for prefabbed trusses and walls compared to a traditional stick framing? I’ve always wondered that.
Posted on 9/4/20 at 10:00 am to jkcooper92
I hope that gentleman is correct. I bought a load of 2x4 this morning, was approx. $200 per board ft higher than what I bought the last one at 2 weeks ago, but I had to have it. Broker said they are seeing signs of it easing. But again, there will have to be unsold lumber sitting on the yard at the mills for them to back off prices.
There's a pretty significant difference in pre-fab and stick framing when you're talking about strictly material cost. Where the cost savings comes in on pre-fab is labor, it's going to get done much quicker. I recently did a job for one of my contractors approximately 3500 s/f with bonus room on second floor, shed porches on both sides all incorporated in the truss, overall truss length 65'. He set the trusses and had most of the roof sheeted in a day. He said to field frame it would have taken him roughly a week. Significant labor and time savings.
The truss industry has done several studies over the years pre-fab vs field frame. I attached a link that you can look at if it's any interest.
LINK
There's a pretty significant difference in pre-fab and stick framing when you're talking about strictly material cost. Where the cost savings comes in on pre-fab is labor, it's going to get done much quicker. I recently did a job for one of my contractors approximately 3500 s/f with bonus room on second floor, shed porches on both sides all incorporated in the truss, overall truss length 65'. He set the trusses and had most of the roof sheeted in a day. He said to field frame it would have taken him roughly a week. Significant labor and time savings.
The truss industry has done several studies over the years pre-fab vs field frame. I attached a link that you can look at if it's any interest.
LINK
Posted on 9/4/20 at 10:10 am to chief2791
There’s always a dip in October. 20 years doing this shite and I see it every year. Let’s see if it happens. Feel bad for people who get stuck with high inventory. I haven’t bought a truck of lumber in a few months just because I’m scared of getting stuck.
Treated lumber is even a bigger shite show. They can’t get the lumber or the chemicals to treat.
Treated lumber is even a bigger shite show. They can’t get the lumber or the chemicals to treat.
Posted on 9/4/20 at 8:41 pm to Cracker
Built my house using ICF. Benefits over stick frame houses are endless (storm protection, insulation, noise reduction, lower heating and cooling costs, no wood rot or termites, lower insurance costs, etc) the only drawback was the cost.
With lumber prices that high you may look into it. Costs probably the same. You will have a far superior home as well.
With lumber prices that high you may look into it. Costs probably the same. You will have a far superior home as well.
This post was edited on 9/4/20 at 9:10 pm
Posted on 9/5/20 at 10:03 am to chief2791
quote:
mills started calling their workers back, they were now making more sitting at home than working.
I also heard from my suppliers that they can't get lumberjacks back on the job either. So even if the mills were at 100%, there aren't any logs to be cut up.
And it's not just in the US, but Canada also, which doesn't help.
Posted on 9/5/20 at 11:21 am to LSURN98
Built my first house with this. Never do it again and I sold the blocks. Beside the storm benefit all others can be achieved with stick. I’m actually 1000 sq ft bigger living and I’m about $100 less in electricity cost. Noise reduction is only as good as your windows and doors. Termites love foam. They’ll live in it and use it to get from the ground to the ceiling joist or rafters. Unless you had blocks with the termite resistance foam.
Still cheaper to stick build even with the price increase. It’s a cost that you will never get back. Nobody gave a shite about it when I sold my house.
Still cheaper to stick build even with the price increase. It’s a cost that you will never get back. Nobody gave a shite about it when I sold my house.
Posted on 9/5/20 at 12:13 pm to Art Vandelay
quote:
It’s a cost that you will never get back
I guess everything is relative. Out of town all the time for work. I remember being out of town with tornado warnings while I’m gone for work, wife and kids freaking out huddled into bath tubs, etc. For me, knowing that no matter what comes through, they are safe, and my house isn’t going anywhere gives me a piece of mind I cannot put a price on.
You are also right about the doors and windows, but why would you build an ICF house and put in cheap windows and doors? Seems silly. And my electric bills are 1/3 of what my neighbors are. And we keep it super cold. 65 at night.
We also were able to do things you simply can’t with wood. My entire living area and kitchen (about 1500 sf) is completely open. Zero walls. The load bearing ability of the walls allows you to do things you just can’t do with stick walls.
Will never even consider building stick again. But then again, this is probably forever house.
Posted on 9/5/20 at 4:25 pm to LSURN98
Is ICF a big departure from traditional stick-built framing for a competent home builder? If ICF is slightly more expensive in a normal market, would it be on par or less expensive in the current inflated lumber market? Also, are there framing contractors who use ICF in south Louisiana? I’m surprised it’s not more common with all the benefits, like fire and termite resistance.
Posted on 9/5/20 at 4:55 pm to GoIrish02
I discussed ICF with my builder and while he liked it he said one issue is appraisals. He had issues with a few of his ICF homes appraising for the purchase price because not all appraisers are willing to account for it's extra cost especially VA appraisers.
Posted on 9/5/20 at 5:03 pm to humblepie
Thanks for the input. Presumably the cost of construction be considered at market rates these days, so lumber would be about on par with ICF, it would seem.
Posted on 9/5/20 at 6:39 pm to GoIrish02
Even at double the cost of wood I doubt it’s even close. A lot of cost is labor and time. I don’t regret doing it the first time. It’s just a cost you can’t recoup. You won’t even see any kind of reduction in insurance. It’s like they didn’t even give a shite that I put in the extra effort. I put best of best windows and doors. Marvin. But you have to put the sound glass. I didnt and did on my new house. Much better. I think it’s much better for colder temp than Louisiana. I find that I the winter it would never get cold. It would take so long for the cold to get into the house.
I helped install when I did mine. It sucked balls. It was me and a guy and his son who was young and just out the marines. We would start at 5 am and couldn’t work past 1-2 in the afternoon. You would bake on the concrete. The blocks I used originally were gray. But they switched to white when I did my house. It was like being in a heat igloo. Plus we came back and cut windows and doors so there was no vent.
I helped install when I did mine. It sucked balls. It was me and a guy and his son who was young and just out the marines. We would start at 5 am and couldn’t work past 1-2 in the afternoon. You would bake on the concrete. The blocks I used originally were gray. But they switched to white when I did my house. It was like being in a heat igloo. Plus we came back and cut windows and doors so there was no vent.
Posted on 9/6/20 at 1:41 am to Cracker
My truss guy went to the mills because his cost are skyrocketing. They have plenty of stock, they are price gouging because they can.
Posted on 9/6/20 at 8:07 am to Cracker
Are the mills taking wood ?
Supply and Demand
Supply and Demand
Posted on 9/6/20 at 9:39 am to GoIrish02
quote:
Is ICF a big departure from traditional stick-built framing for a competent home builder?
I don’t think so. There was a guy in our area that built ICF. The builder we liked didn’t, so he basically subbed it out to a company that we bought the forms from recommended. Some builders were terrified of it.
quote:
If ICF is slightly more expensive in a normal market, would it be on par or less expensive in the current inflated lumber market?
Ours was not that much more. About 20k for us, But my house was 600k so it’s a small amount overall. The contractor who did the walls had an experienced crew and “framed” or formed the blocks, ran rebar and cleaned the channels in one day, poured concrete the next. Took a total of 2 days.
A lot of our costs was having to pay a structural engineer to calculate foundation needs. Plus, our foundation used a lot of concrete. To support those walls post tension slab that goes down 5 ft along the perimeter.
quote:
Also, are there framing contractors who use ICF in south Louisiana?
Sorry man I really don’t know.
quote:
I’m surprised it’s not more common with all the benefits, like fire and termite resistance.
It’s gotten really popular in tornado alley. Google pics of an ICF house after a tornado, hurricane, etc, vs rest of a neighborhood. We pay 600 a year for insurance (agent gave us an ICF discount). My utility bills are really low for my size house. It’s usually mid July before our AC starts running more due to thermal mass of the walls. So it may take a long time but we will get that money back eventually. If we added solar I’m pretty sure we wouldn’t even have an electric bill.
It’s extremely quiet. When Laura came through (was only cat 1 when it got to us) I thought it had changed course because I didn’t even know it was bad outside until I got up and looked outside to find my fence down, outdoor furniture turned over, etc. You will never have cold or hot spots or drafty rooms.
Posted on 9/6/20 at 6:04 pm to Cracker
Question for you guys in the industry:
1. What's the best place to check prices? I see this site, but I don't know where the data is from, and also NASDAQ lumber prices. The prices at those two sites are different... which one seems to most closely match what you're paying by the truckload?
2. Should X% change in wholesale prices result in a similar % change at retail?
3. What sort of lag time should I expect from a price change to hit retail?
I'm planning to do a few large projects in the back yard, and I'd like to snipe my wood purchases when the prices are back down to earth.
Timing this right could save me more than $1k, so it's worth it for me to put in a couple hours' work writing some scripts to monitor prices on various websites. If anyone is interested, shoot me an email at my username at gmail and I will make the tool public.
1. What's the best place to check prices? I see this site, but I don't know where the data is from, and also NASDAQ lumber prices. The prices at those two sites are different... which one seems to most closely match what you're paying by the truckload?
2. Should X% change in wholesale prices result in a similar % change at retail?
3. What sort of lag time should I expect from a price change to hit retail?
I'm planning to do a few large projects in the back yard, and I'd like to snipe my wood purchases when the prices are back down to earth.
Timing this right could save me more than $1k, so it's worth it for me to put in a couple hours' work writing some scripts to monitor prices on various websites. If anyone is interested, shoot me an email at my username at gmail and I will make the tool public.
Posted on 9/16/20 at 7:06 pm to Korkstand
It’s tanking boys. The crash is going to be as fun as the climb. Saw a down print for the first time since March. Inventory is catching up
Posted on 9/16/20 at 8:30 pm to Art Vandelay
Great news. My house plans should be done this week. My wife and I are excited to start building our first home but the lumber prices were making us nervous
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