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Message

Split winnings or nah

Posted on 12/13/15 at 7:26 pm
Posted by Athletix
:pels:
Member since Dec 2012
5067 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 7:26 pm
Here it is guys

4900 pot
Base payouts
1st-4000
2nd-900

Previous years guys have mostly split the first place money and played for the 900
1st-2900
2nd-2000

Much better guarantee after a long year of fantasy football. The question is should I split this year?!? By far the best fantasy team I've ever assembled, and arguably the best team assembled in any of the 3 leagues I've been playing in for the past 10 years.

Avg 142 points a game. 12 team ppr
T. Brady
A. Peterson
A. Brown
Aj Green
A. Robinson
J. Reed
D. Walker

The team I am likely to play just lost Rawls and I have waiver wire money to pick up any SEA rb.
C. Newton
E. Lacy
M. Crabtree
B. Marshall
R. Gronk
SEA DEF/K/SP
(2 of these)
J. Starks
D. Sproles
K. Aiken
T. Austin


The other team I could play
Waiver QB
J. Stewart
D. Williams
E. Decker
L. Fitz
D. Hopkins
G. Olsen

Also has TY Hilton on bench



SOOOO the question is... Do I agree to a change in the pay structure.

I'm leaning towards
1st-3500
2nd-1400
Posted by Fusaichi Pegasus
Meh He Co
Member since Oct 2010
14566 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 7:27 pm to
Wtf
Posted by Athletix
:pels:
Member since Dec 2012
5067 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 7:30 pm to
I think I laid it out pretty well. Average intelligence should be able to give an opinion on the situation
Posted by pwejr88
Red Stick
Member since Apr 2007
36179 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 7:31 pm to
Is that in pesos?
Posted by dj30
New Orleans
Member since Feb 2006
28724 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 7:39 pm to
I
quote:

SOOOO the question is... Do I agree to a change in the pay structure.

I'm leaning towards
1st-3500
2nd-1400


I would try this.
Posted by CE Tiger
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
41584 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 7:42 pm to
what was the buy in? if you have a chance to guarantee 2k you should probably do it
Posted by RedMustang
Member since Oct 2011
6851 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 7:49 pm to
quote:


I'm leaning towards
1st-3500
2nd-1400


I was going to suggest this before you posted it. I wouldn't do the $2900-$2000 as you have the best team, and in the long run it's a bad deal as a bettor. Anything can happen in the playoffs though, so $3500-$1400 seems like a happy medium.
Posted by Athletix
:pels:
Member since Dec 2012
5067 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 7:50 pm to
500 buy in

top 2 teams during regular season get 500 each
quote:

what was the buy in? if you have a chance to guarantee 2k you should probably do it

I've had this stance all year. But my team is much better than the guy I am likely to play
Posted by CE Tiger
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
41584 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 8:10 pm to
Today proves there is no guarantees ever

Dalton Eifert Rawls hurt in game. Big Ben throws up a stinker. Take your 4-1 return in your investment and play for the rest
Posted by Cecil D Diesel
Shaolin
Member since Mar 2011
9269 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 8:11 pm to
I'd go $2k a piece and play for the $900.
Basically the four outcomes could be(my math may be off):
1. 8x entry fee, if you dont split and win.
2. 1.8x entry fee, no split and lose.
3. 5.8x, if you split and win
4. 4.0x, if you split and lose

I'd take the higher guaranteed amount.
Posted by TheWalrus
Member since Dec 2012
40518 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 8:12 pm to
If you can afford a 500 buy in, you might as well let the dice roll.
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30574 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 8:14 pm to
You have the better team. I think we all agree on that. My concern would be players being benched last week or two with seeds locked up, if you're doing standard 2 week game format. The last week of the regular season is always very shaky when many good teams with good fantasy players don't have anything to play for. And there's always the possibility of your players having a terrible week, your opponent getting a fluke explosion by one of their players, etc

Considering all of that, plus the possibility of injury, I'd ensure I was making the $2000 if I was in your position. However I'm only playing for a 75/25 split of $300 with $30 invested, so I can't say how I'd feel with thousands on the line. Plus I have no idea what the money is worth to you. Thousands of dollars is a ton of money for me right now being a college student, but it might be play money for you if you're 30-40 with a good job.
Posted by BilJ
Member since Sep 2003
158761 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 8:19 pm to
quote:

Today proves there is no guarantees ever


this

a lot of awful scores and injuries today. The guarantee, play for $900 IMO
Posted by Athletix
:pels:
Member since Dec 2012
5067 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 8:22 pm to
Next week is our championship game. With the money involved we started the playoffs last week.

The money is enough to where I'm considering hedging. It makes sense to guarantee myself more money, but where is the sweet spot? Like I said I'm leaning 3500/1400 but a guaranteed 2k sounds nice....but so does 3500
Posted by oleyeller
Vols, Bitch
Member since Oct 2012
32021 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 8:24 pm to
never split the pot! shite no
Posted by swamie
Where opportunity meets hard work
Member since Jan 2007
27253 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 8:24 pm to
The other team with the waiver QB I might be tempted to roll the dice and go for the $4,000. But the first team you listed, I'd probably go for the split.
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30574 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 8:46 pm to
One week playoff champ game? I'd def split the pot then. Tom has an off game? You lose. AP gets hurt? You lose. Cam puts up 3 pass TDs, 2 rush TDs? You lose. I think there's a lot of risk there if you don't split at all. The middle split should be your minimum. But i would try to set the low one at whatever amount you think should be the minimum you take home. But here I am seeing you have the option to guarantee quadrupling your investment as consolation for losing, and multiplying it times 6 for winning. Yea you could possibly multiply it by 10 if you don't split at all, but you lose that and you aren't even doubling
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30574 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 8:52 pm to
If equate this to going to the casino, working hard and patiently in poker, slowly building your winnings over 8 grueling hours, then getting up right before the casino closes, going to the roullete table, and putting all your winnings on black. Your luck has been really good all night, and you might have won 80-90% of your hands even. But betting everything on one hand after all that work over 8 hours? That would be way too much of a risk with too much time invested
Posted by AbitaFan08
Boston, MA
Member since Apr 2008
26565 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 8:59 pm to
Change the pay structure during the playoffs? Why was this not settled preseason?

I don't think I'm understanding the problem entirely. I've never been in a league where therewasn't an understood pay structure at the start of the season.
This post was edited on 12/13/15 at 9:02 pm
Posted by Athletix
:pels:
Member since Dec 2012
5067 posts
Posted on 12/13/15 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

Upperdecker

I appreciate the thought behind the responses. I've pretty much come to the conclusion that I will at least go 3500/1400, but it's trying decide if I should guarantee the extra 600 and go 2900/2000

3500/1400
vs
2900/2000
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