re: Inputs on Afiganistan from reputable people

They have some mineral interests in Afghanistan, but security would be the big one. A stable Afghanistan is a stable Pakistan, and they're building a major supply line through Pakistan.

Dozens of tribes.
Regional fragmentation.
No central authority.

Pashtuns are spread over northeast paki and southern afgan.
border is
invention of outsiders.
Drug trade dependency.
Muslim.
Literacy not.
Gnp not.

I will eat my yarmulke if we "win".
Do you fans of trump really see taliban just giving up? What would be reason?

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The problem with our military leadership is that they can't, won't, consider withdrawal. They're also political creatures. They'll keep hammering away with a token military effort until the very end.

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Weeeelllll then if what you say is true, then, our premise is wrong. I set up a premise that our highest-ranking military people were the most learned that we have ever had. The basis for that premise is that they've been educated and experienced so much more than in previous eras such as Vietnam.

IF you are correct and indeed all of this experience and training cannot purge their political instincts and motivations from them, then we do face a worst case scenario in which our Officer Corps is STILL not worth a shite because they are all political careerists like Hackworth says.

WE already know for sure that it traditionally took a real political "manimal" to make General Officer. But since 2001 we have a new generation of warfighting Officers who presumably made rank on their practical rather than political talents.

I'm going with my theory that the new guys way at the top are not so political and can clearly analyze and advise without political influence and motive. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I guess I'm just a Dreamer.

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I just find it interesting that NSA McMaster wrote "Dereliction of Duty", placing blame for Vietnam on the decisions of Johnson & McNamara.

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I really need to read that book. I agree with the above quote.

To what extent McMaster places blame on the Officer Corps of the US military for failures in Vietnam, I can't say. I haven't read the book. But I can say that our military education system for Officers back in the years leading up to Vietnam were off the mark for training Officers to analyze and fight that kind of war. The Officer Corps made lots of mistakes because they were not trained for that kind of war.

Whose job is it to train up the high-ranking warfighters? Our military leaders have to figure out how to prepare the military leadership for the Next War. The civilian leadership of the USA doesn't have the expertise for that task.

So, we have done a better job over the decades since Vietnam than we did during the decades preceding Vietnam. I think that we have done MUCH better, but, maybe I'm just dreaming.

I am going to take a wait and see approach. Try not to jump to conclusions.
I was convinced Afghan was a lost cause with no practical solution. But if Mattis and McMaster have a plan that has convinced POTUS, then I am willing to see if it works.
It will not be the usual "hearts & minds"/ "perpetual occupation with no objective" war of the Neocon politicians. Even though they may be on board. (McCain/Graham)

Does explain Bannon being forced out. That's for sure.
That makes me sad, but maybe he was too much of an idealist.

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I know the navy has done large natural resource surveys and there are tons of exploitable mineral and metals resources, but their infrastructure is dogshit. There's no way they could ever secure those routes, especially without a central government. Hell the Russians have had geologists stationed there since 1979.

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There is a pretty good show on Netflix

about Norwegian SF being deployed there that actually touches on this. Only down part is its all subtitled.

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For nothing at all.

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We disagree.

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For nothing at all.

We disagree.

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But are not able to articulate even a single sentence in explanation.