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re: Freakonomics podcast on marriage and income
Posted on 7/7/17 at 2:19 pm to slackster
Posted on 7/7/17 at 2:19 pm to slackster
quote:
If a racial component exist, it isn't the one you think it is. Since 2000, white non-Hispanics and Asian or Pacific Islanders are the only two races to increase their unwed birth rates, 13.6% and 3.8% respectively. The unwed birth rate for blacks and Hispanics has come down significantly, -12.8% and -21.4% respectively.
Hell, since 1990, non-Hispanic white unwed birth rates have climbed 30.4% while black unwed birth rates have decreased 32.0%.
I'm not sure where you are getting those numbers. It's around 72% for blacks, 54% for Hispanics and 36% for whites.
LINK
1
Posted on 7/7/17 at 2:24 pm to Sun Ra
quote:
It also states "Since just 1980, the share of marriages between spouses of different races has almost quadrupled, up to 6%, a new Pew Research study on multiracial Americans has found. At the same time, though, a large share of mixed-race babies (43%) are not living with a married parent, suggesting that it’s probably not just interracial marriage, but interracial dating in general that is driving the demographic change."
This is roughly 15% higher than the overall % of babies born to white mothers out of wedlock. The math isn't really that complicated.
35% of all white moms were single in 2014
Posted on 7/7/17 at 2:47 pm to Dire Wolf
Towards the end of the pod, steven asks something like "should government pay folks to get married...?"
Her response was interesting. She said something like "well i think a lot of people would be hesitant to provide financial incentives for people to jump into something like marriage..."
that sounds to me like: It's ok for a single woman to decide to jump into parenthood via adoption or spermbank or whatever, but something as serious as marriage deserves lots of thought before jumping in. makes no sense
Her response was interesting. She said something like "well i think a lot of people would be hesitant to provide financial incentives for people to jump into something like marriage..."
that sounds to me like: It's ok for a single woman to decide to jump into parenthood via adoption or spermbank or whatever, but something as serious as marriage deserves lots of thought before jumping in. makes no sense
Posted on 7/7/17 at 2:48 pm to Dire Wolf
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/19/17 at 4:10 pm
Posted on 7/7/17 at 2:58 pm to Dire Wolf
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:02 pm to Sun Ra
quote:
It also states "Since just 1980, the share of marriages between spouses of different races has almost quadrupled, up to 6%, a new Pew Research study on multiracial Americans has found. At the same time, though, a large share of mixed-race babies (43%) are not living with a married parent, suggesting that it’s probably not just interracial marriage, but interracial dating in general that is driving the demographic change." This is roughly 15% higher than the overall % of babies born to white mothers out of wedlock. The math isn't really that complicated.
We get it - you think black fathers are largely to blame for the increase in unwed pregnancy rates among white mothers, despite mixed-race children accounting for less than 6% of all babies being born in 2015.
quote:
Just because the others have decreased (if true) does not mean the rates for those races aren't still higher than whites (which they are).
The decrease among the races I mentioned is true, and it is also true they're still higher than whites.
quote:
BTW, if you're going to quote a stat please link it, even if irrelevant such as this one.
You can find search Census.gov using their Fact Finder, as well as the CDC Vital Statistics logs just like I did. There is no link to a table that has it all nice and pretty for us.
quote:
You're willfully omitting the overall rates. Why?
I'm not omitting the rates for any purpose, but I think the downward trend is something to appreciate and study further. If you read the first few pages of the thread, you'll see that we discussed the rates for whites are really just a product of the head start minorities had. These numbers continue to get worse across time, but recently they've improved in a few minorities, and hopefully that trend continues.
If you'd like the birth rates from 2015:
40.4 for whites
31.6 for non-Hispanic whites
59.6 for blacks (Hispanics included)
67.4 for Hispanics
20.4 for Asian or Pacific Islanders
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:04 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
that's because these idiots believe in subjective experience over scientific data
Hey now, how dare you use real data to disprove my anecdotal data.
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:06 pm to jdeval1
quote:
I'm not sure where you are getting those numbers. It's around 72% for blacks, 54% for Hispanics and 36% for whites.
Those numbers are the percentages of children born out of wedlock. They're largely dependent on both the amount of children born in wedlock and the children born out of wedlock.
Birth rates are defined using the population "at risk", which is a measure of the amount of births to the amount of women in between age 15-44 that fit that population (unwed, particular race, etc.).
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:20 pm to slackster
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/19/17 at 4:10 pm
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:26 pm to Dire Wolf
I think this has more to do with income than marriage.
If a single mom is holding down a 100K a year job, the odds of that kid falling behind are pretty low.
Poor, uneducated single women having kids is a huge, massive, growing problem in this country.
Also, the government, via the tax code, is a massive DISINTEREST to marriage. If the government wanted successful people to marry, the married tax brackets would be exactly double the single tax brackets at every level of income.
In many financial ways, if two adults are both successful financially, it makes more and more sense for them to stay unmarried, even if they have kids.
If a single mom is holding down a 100K a year job, the odds of that kid falling behind are pretty low.
Poor, uneducated single women having kids is a huge, massive, growing problem in this country.
Also, the government, via the tax code, is a massive DISINTEREST to marriage. If the government wanted successful people to marry, the married tax brackets would be exactly double the single tax brackets at every level of income.
In many financial ways, if two adults are both successful financially, it makes more and more sense for them to stay unmarried, even if they have kids.
This post was edited on 7/7/17 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:29 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
I think this has more to do with income than marriage.
If a single mom is holding down a 100K a year job, the odds of that kid falling behind are pretty low.
Poor, uneducated single women having kids is a huge, massive, growing problem in this country.
And that single mom making $100k is more than likely highly-educated and a product of a dual parent household.
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:31 pm to Golfer
quote:
And that single mom making $100k is more than likely highly-educated and a product of a dual parent household.
and/or had the child later in life. Kind of hard to be pulling 100k at 16-25, despite the large percentage of O-T'ers that do it.
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:32 pm to Golfer
quote:
highly-educated
Agree
quote:
dual parent household.
Agree only because we haven't had a lot of time in history with single women making 100K having kids who grow up and become successful. Let's check this stat 30 years, until then, I don't think this is something that is crystal clear.
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:45 pm to LSUFanHouston
I know this topic should be devoid of anecdotes but of my wife and I's group of close friends (approx 10-15 couples), all but one isn't married and they are engaged. The group ranges from 35-30 years old, and marriages from 7-2 years. All have 3 or less kids (most are still just at 1 or zero) and only one of the 26-30 people does not have a college degree...with most having graduate or professional work completed as well.
Every. Single. One of us comes from a dual parent household whose parents are still married today.
Only one of these people comes from generational wealth. Some of us even came from lower class backgrounds. Nothing they've done has been revolutionary, but we're all living proof it works.
Every. Single. One of us comes from a dual parent household whose parents are still married today.
Only one of these people comes from generational wealth. Some of us even came from lower class backgrounds. Nothing they've done has been revolutionary, but we're all living proof it works.
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:49 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Agree only because we haven't had a lot of time in history with single women making 100K having kids who grow up and become successful. Let's check this stat 30 years, until then, I don't think this is something that is crystal clear.
i think you misunderstand the meta data
those women are primarily NOT single parents. marriage skews to the higher class, ie, women making $100k are more likely to be married
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:51 pm to Golfer
quote:
Golfer
My anecdotes are the same as yours, and they prove my point.
We won't know the rate of young educated single moms having successful kids, until we get a couple of generations down the line.
The single moms of the 70s and early 80s, the time when myself and my peers were born, have children that are not as successful as my peers who like me came from married couple families.
But, there are a lot more well-educated single women with money in 2017 then there were in the late 70s/early 80s.
Will their children, 30 years from now, also be successful? Or will they be unsuccessful? That we don't know.
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:52 pm to anc
quote:
I have a doctorate and my wife has a master's degree. We have two children and do not plan on more. My two brothers have three combined, my wife's two siblings have one combined. That's six kids in a family with five educated couples. There are hundreds of single moms on welfare with six or more kids in Jackson, MS alone.
The basis for the movie Idiocracy
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:53 pm to Sun Ra
quote:
I do wonder why you broke whites into hispanic/non-hispanic and didn't do the same for blacks?
Unfortunately the data isn't broken down that way. The CDC lists whites, whites non-Hispanics, and Hispanics, but they don't separate black non-Hispanics. Hispanic is an ethnicity, not a race, but that's the way they're listed.
quote:
Again, this whole debate started when someone proclaimed race had nothing to do with it. I'm in analytics by trade and incorrect absolute statements such as this trigger me. I believe I've disproved this statement quite effectively. It is a factor. One of several factors, but a factor nonetheless.
It is hard to isolate what factor race plays when neither race started with the same baseline. That has been my point all along - whites are now at the point that blacks were at in 1970ish. If the rate continues to climb, is race to blame, or is the head start the only thing that separates the two?
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:54 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
those women are primarily NOT single parents.
Agree, but it's a higher percentage than any time in our history (although that percentage is still rather small).
Given millennials seeming desire to delay/eschew marriage, and the fact women are more successful now than at any time in history, it seems like this will be more likely in the future
I'm more worried about how the next 30 years will go than the last 30 years.
Posted on 7/7/17 at 3:56 pm to LSUFanHouston
It isn't just about income. Having two parents means twice the amount of times you have a parent reading to the kid, twice the supervision, etc. Even a single mom with a good job will struggle.
This post was edited on 7/7/17 at 3:58 pm
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