Are we at a generational housing peak?

I think the big cities are going to appreciate well, especially prime parts as people move towards the large cities more. I dont know how much value the suburbs will have moving forward. People seem to want the more urban experience, even houston finally after having lived here my whole life finally has a somewhat cool downtown. It was trash my whole life and just now has decent condos,bars,restaurants you can all walk too and the inner loop properties are really soaring. When I was a kid everyone wanted to live in katy,spring,the woodlands in these big sprawling homes but now everyone I know seems to want to an inner city townhome that has a better location.

I just remember as a kid always going 30-45 min in a car with my parents to visit friends all over houston and today none of my friends live outside the loop. Nobody seems to care that you can get 4000 sq ft in kingwood or spring with a yard 45 min away for the same price as a 2000 sq ft townhome in the city without a yard. The younger generation just doesn't seem to care about the things the older generation did in terms of real estate.

Livingston and Ascension have multiple factors that will continue to support their markets as suburbs in the 5-Parish Metro BR area.

1.) There is a metric shite ton of grant money on its way over the next 12-18 months to the aforementioned 5 Parish Metro BR area through FEMA and other forms of federal assistance to elevate and reconstruct homes. They'll be freshly remodeled and elevated out of the flood zone in a desirable location with good schools and preferable forms of #2....

2.) Local Government. Between Chauna Banks, Denise Marcelle, newly minted mayor Sharon Weston Broome, people are going to soon see attempts at wealth redistribution and focus on NBR that don't appeal to anyone outside of those areas. Increases in taxation, money grabs, and boondoggle social programs and public invest,wants will continue to drive people to LP/AP and-more and more-the Tangipahoa Parish area.

3.) Public Schools. They get a bad rap, but LPPSS is one of the better public systems in the state, and far more preferable to many than the shite show that is EBRPPS and even AP, as well (though just how much more is debatable I agree). LP for example is having DSHS completely rebuilt. Live Oak just opened a massive brand new HS less than 5 years ago, and Walker HS is in the midst of a $25,000,000 expansion of an already 5A school. There is a significant investment of tax dollars here into public education and we see good outcomes as a result educationally.

It isn't Catholic High and it's not U-High. But when you don't have to know someone or get your kids into Pre-K to get them into U-High or pay thousands in tuition to get them into relatively decent public schools, the savings are significant.

3.) Rural Development. RD Loans are the only 100% financing option that's stuck around through the Recession. LP/AP continued demarcation on census maps as Rural Areas mean that young homeowners-the backbone of a community's future tax base-will gravitate towards them not only because of cheaper educational options but cheaper homeownership costs and qualification. East Baton Rouge outside of a few slivers down Greenwell Springs and Tiger Bend simply can't offer 100-102% financing based on appraised value and not just sale price.

So at least locally I see a healthy market with continued appreciation.

Do you consider millennials to be pent up demand or a paradigm shift?


There will always be local trends to consider. I was speaking more in macro terms.

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I think the big cities are going to appreciate well, especially prime parts as people move towards the large cities more. I dont know how much value the suburbs will have moving forward. People seem to want the more urban experience, even houston finally after having lived here my whole life finally has a somewhat cool downtown. It was trash my whole life and just now has decent condos,bars,restaurants you can all walk too and the inner loop properties are really soaring. When I was a kid everyone wanted to live in katy,spring,the woodlands in these big sprawling homes but now everyone I know seems to want to an inner city townhome that has a better location.

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There is still one aspect that will keep the suburbs in demand and limit somewhat the price growth of the urban core.

K-12 education.

Unless things have recently changed, HISD, outside of the magnet schools, still sucks. And private schools inside the loop are still very, very expensive.

So as all these people move inside the loop and eventually have kids, are they going to be able to continue, with their increased earnings, to pay both the ever-increasing property tax, as well as drop 15K a year per kid for private school?

Some will, of course.

I don't think prices will fall... because even if these new parents do move out to the better school districts, there will be younger, kid-free adults who will move into the urban core.

Even when I left Houston at the end of 2011, the downtown area still sucked pretty bad. But when I was there last summer for a weekend series at Minute Maid, I was stunned to see everything they had going on.

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The selfie generation is being raised to believe that they are the most important things in their lives. There is no such thing as personal sacrifice for like a family or a stable home to raise that family, so why would you Burden yourself by having kids? How does that help you have fun? Why have a house? Marriage is fun but if it gets tough, you can't be stuck with a house. Maybe around 35 when their looks start to fade you can find someone with no debt and a good resume to settle with. Perhaps get a dog for the first 10 years and then have a kid in mid 40s. If all goes well. In the mean time, look at me! Look at me! Snap snap snap omg this dinner is to die for!

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Put that crap on the OT, not here.

Don't post this crap on the MTB.

You mad.

Selling a home in the local market in in isn't difficult at all. In a much less active market coming up on 24 months ago, my parents sold three separate pieces of property-an acre with a mobile home, 2+ acres with our childhood SFR and another 1.1 acres of unrestricted property beside the SFR in a rural neighborhood.

The mobile home was on the market for about 1 week. The Home got a full price offer after 2 hours on the market before the walk through. The unimproved acre in the same hood sold in 3 weeks.

A lease on an apartment is quicker and easier. But it's also far less lucrative and provides less tax and credit advantages compared to home ownership. To say nothing of the potential for passive income generation and/or realizing liquid assets via appreciation and the equity paying at closing.

If a younger generation doesn't see the value in it, it's because they are less financially literate IMO. The curious thing is that I interviewed in a group setting for a loan officer gig way back when and I heard incredibly similar statements about the market being saturated, homeownership levels plateauing, and it being less difficult to move based on opportunity if needed or wanted. All as reasons for the guy interviewing us to prefer to rent.

It's been 20 years or so since that time and I still hear the same comments about housing starts, the market, etc...and things keep moving forward. I think each successive generation keeps thinking they're unique, different and somewhat special.

Not just Millenials. But Gen Y'ers and X'ers too. They have all said the same things and the RE market and the biz surrounding home ownership doesn't seem to stop moving forward.

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Not just Millenials. But Gen Y'ers and X'ers too. They have all said the same things and the RE market and the biz surrounding home ownership doesn't seem to stop moving forward.

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This time though I legit see concern bc automation is here and going to come like a freight train and take away jobs. Obviously people will still live places, but I imagine the wealth gap will expand over time and higher end areas will be fine but lower middle class to bottom properties will struggle. I hope I'm wrong I just dont see how long term we're not on some sort of basic income like bernie sanders supporters want to take care of those displaced by automation