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What are you guys actuall expecting from our rookie?
Posted on 5/19/16 at 7:55 am
Posted on 5/19/16 at 7:55 am
Just from reading most posts, I feel like most people are penciling in our rookie to start and contribute in a big way. History says that this won't be the case, especially if you want the team to be a winning team.
How many rookies have had: Moderate to high usage, started, and been on a 45+ win team? I can think of less than 3 in the last ten years.
Heck, when we got Baron, who was more talented than anyone we will get this year, he was a role player year 1. Lillard was good, but they ended up in the lotto. I can go on and on. History says that either your rookie will put up good numbers and your team will be bad, or your team will be good but it is because your rookie is just a role player
So, what are you guys expecting? Would Hield be better than Gordon has been the last two years, in his rookie year? Would Bender even give you a Jason Smith level impact? Would Dunn be much better than Tim Frazier was last year?
Not talking about 2017 and beyond, but next year, what are you guys honestly expecting from the rookie?
How many rookies have had: Moderate to high usage, started, and been on a 45+ win team? I can think of less than 3 in the last ten years.
Heck, when we got Baron, who was more talented than anyone we will get this year, he was a role player year 1. Lillard was good, but they ended up in the lotto. I can go on and on. History says that either your rookie will put up good numbers and your team will be bad, or your team will be good but it is because your rookie is just a role player
So, what are you guys expecting? Would Hield be better than Gordon has been the last two years, in his rookie year? Would Bender even give you a Jason Smith level impact? Would Dunn be much better than Tim Frazier was last year?
Not talking about 2017 and beyond, but next year, what are you guys honestly expecting from the rookie?
14
Posted on 5/19/16 at 8:05 am to Crewz
If we draft Hield I don't see why he can't immediately replace Gordon's production. Whether Monty or Gentry, this team has generated a ton of open shots, even rookies should be able to knock open shots down, and since Hield would be replacing Gordon, my defensive expectations would be low.
I think the biggest effect Dunn would have as a rookie is forcing the team to move Tyreke. I'm not sure he beats out Frazier for minutes, but I think that would be good for getting him to focus on what he needs to improve to be John Wall and not MCW.
I honestly haven't studied Murray much, but from what I've seen I'd have similar expectations as with Hield except he might actually be worse than Gordon on defense.
I see Valentine as a super sub playing 1-3 and I would expect more from him as a rookie than anyone else because he's supposed to be coming in with shooting, passing, and rebounding skills.
I think the biggest effect Dunn would have as a rookie is forcing the team to move Tyreke. I'm not sure he beats out Frazier for minutes, but I think that would be good for getting him to focus on what he needs to improve to be John Wall and not MCW.
I honestly haven't studied Murray much, but from what I've seen I'd have similar expectations as with Hield except he might actually be worse than Gordon on defense.
I see Valentine as a super sub playing 1-3 and I would expect more from him as a rookie than anyone else because he's supposed to be coming in with shooting, passing, and rebounding skills.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 8:41 am to Crewz
quote:
History says that either your rookie will put up good numbers and your team will be bad, or your team will be good but it is because your rookie is just a role player
This is a terrible way to look at it. The good teams 1) aren't drafting in the lottery 2) typically don't have starting spots open and 3) there's little usage available for rookie on a good team.
The bad teams are picking in the lottery, getting the best rookies, and have minutes to give instantly.
Last year : KAT, D'lo, Okafor, Porzingis, WCS, & Mudiay all played key roles on their team. Stanley Johnson, Kaminsky, Winslow, & Myles Tuner all were solid role players on playoff teams.
2015 similar, top 10 littered with rookies who had immediate impacts on their "bad" teams, followed by bunch of role players on playoff teams.
Pels are a bad team with essentially 3 starting spots open. The expectation should be a rookie will start and contribute in a big way.
This post was edited on 5/19/16 at 8:42 am
Posted on 5/19/16 at 8:51 am to Crewz
quote:
Just from reading most posts, I feel like most people are penciling in our rookie to start and contribute in a big way. History says that this won't be the case, especially if you want the team to be a winning team.
It really depends on the player. I don't think any starts, but some of the seniors could certainly contribute on a this team.
quote:
How many rookies have had: Moderate to high usage, started, and been on a 45+ win team? I can think of less than 3 in the last ten years.
Not many, but this probably isn't a 45+ win team unless major changes are made to the roster.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 9:21 am to Crewz
I'm expecting us to get a role player who over time will develope into a solid starter. This franchise needs some youth and excitement, there is no better place to get that than the draft.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 9:28 am to Crewz
Quite simply' I expect our draft pick to bring us hope.
And that, in return, will add a little bit of excitement.
And that, in return, will add a little bit of excitement.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 9:41 am to Crewz
quote:
What are you guys actuall expecting from our rookie?
Injuries
I don't expect a lot from rookies, especially the one-and-dones. They rarely make huge impacts right out of the gate. I'd hope for a healthy guy who shows they can develop into a high level player.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 9:44 am to Crewz
20 points per game
10 Assists per game
10 Rebound per game
lock down defense on the other teams best player
90% Free Throw shooter
40% on 3s
50% on 2s
and the most unrealistic.......
ability to stay healthy with the Pelican's training staff
10 Assists per game
10 Rebound per game
lock down defense on the other teams best player
90% Free Throw shooter
40% on 3s
50% on 2s
and the most unrealistic.......
ability to stay healthy with the Pelican's training staff
Posted on 5/19/16 at 9:51 am to Crewz
If they can get a rotation player for next year out of 6, that's a win. This past season's rookies fooled people to some degree with their play. Even a guy like Porzingis, with a very bright future, really tailed off badly down the stretch.
Even the most "pro ready" guy like Hield will struggle some. Dudes are bigger, longer, more athletic, and just better in the NBA. It's hard at this level. There will be a learning curve.
If he can be healthy for 70 games, yes. Gordon would still be the better player, but he's played in ~200 games over the past 4 years. Just from a MP and cap perspective, Hield shooting 40/35/75 and playing rookie level (i.e. bad) defense in 65-70 games, would still be better for the team next year.
Even the most "pro ready" guy like Hield will struggle some. Dudes are bigger, longer, more athletic, and just better in the NBA. It's hard at this level. There will be a learning curve.
quote:
Would Hield be better than Gordon has been the last two years
If he can be healthy for 70 games, yes. Gordon would still be the better player, but he's played in ~200 games over the past 4 years. Just from a MP and cap perspective, Hield shooting 40/35/75 and playing rookie level (i.e. bad) defense in 65-70 games, would still be better for the team next year.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 9:58 am to Crewz
As others have suggested, too many unknown variables to really be able to state expectations for our draft pick this year...which player, who do we sign in FA, injuries...etc.
I expect any rookie would at least have a role to play, but unless crazy injuries strike again I expect them to come off the bench and be low usage players this year. I think we adress the SF spot in free agency (S. Hill) as well as add a SG (make a play at Fournier). The only real expectation I have is that our draft pick should be an above average starter and make our team better in year 3.
Barring some homeruns in free agency, I also expect us to be in the lotto again next year. I don't think most fans care about the wins and losses next year so much as we just want to see some signs of hopefrom the rookie as well as some progression and cohesion from the team. I think most fans realize this team isn't competing in one year with just a rookie and some mid level free agents.
I expect any rookie would at least have a role to play, but unless crazy injuries strike again I expect them to come off the bench and be low usage players this year. I think we adress the SF spot in free agency (S. Hill) as well as add a SG (make a play at Fournier). The only real expectation I have is that our draft pick should be an above average starter and make our team better in year 3.
Barring some homeruns in free agency, I also expect us to be in the lotto again next year. I don't think most fans care about the wins and losses next year so much as we just want to see some signs of hopefrom the rookie as well as some progression and cohesion from the team. I think most fans realize this team isn't competing in one year with just a rookie and some mid level free agents.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 10:49 am to Crewz
quote:
What are you guys actuall expecting from our rookie?
coherency
Posted on 5/19/16 at 12:23 pm to Crewz
Damian Lillard came into a very similar situation that Kris Dunn could be walking into next year. A top flight PF with some veteran talent around him. I'm not saying Dunn or Hield would put up that type of year, but it's easy to see how a 2014 Davis and 2015 Holiday could free up responsibility and make the transition less painful than others, particularly for 4 year college players who come in with an established skill set and the confidence of their coach.
Do I expect much? No. But let's not forget Davis still has MVP candidate potential and that wild card makes this situation unique.
Do I expect much? No. But let's not forget Davis still has MVP candidate potential and that wild card makes this situation unique.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 9:37 pm to Crewz
ROY.
Posted on 5/19/16 at 11:42 pm to Crewz
Roy playoffs and save our franchise, buddy
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