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Posted on 4/17/14 at 4:31 pm to corndeaux
There's another overlong response in me, here. But it really doesn't matter. Agree to disagree.
Posted on 4/18/14 at 11:07 am to eyeran
GREAT read on all the different options for defending the Pick and Roll.
LINK
Also, Flannery had a good read on the Celtics looking to make moves this summer. Specifically mentions Sullinger and Olynyk as being potential bait for a big fish.
LINK
quote:
The pick and roll is the genesis of the modern NBA offense. It forces the defense to make a decision on each and every possession. That decision then opens up a multitude of offensive options: the pull-up jumper, the drive to the paint, the pass to the rolling or popping man, the kick-out pass, the dish to someone coming off an action on the opposite side, etc. There is so much going on.
As a result, NBA defenses have come up with a smorgasbord of defensive coverages to combat it. Every team has multiple ways to play the pick and roll, depending on individual matchups and their overall defensive philosophy. Almost every defensive decision in the NBA begins and ends with how you choose to play the pick and roll.
This leads to a variety of questions. What are you willing to give up? What is the number one thing you're trying to take away? How does your personnel fit with what you would ideally want to do? Or, a better question: how can you play the pick and roll with your existing personnel?
The goal: try and make it so the pick and roll can only beat you one way. That one way must be something that's most different than their successful habits. If you ask the offense to make decisions that are new to them, you've blown up the foundation of their offensive actions.
Also, Flannery had a good read on the Celtics looking to make moves this summer. Specifically mentions Sullinger and Olynyk as being potential bait for a big fish.
Posted on 4/18/14 at 11:08 am to corndeaux
quote:
Specifically mentions Sullinger and Olynyk as being potential bait for a big fish/Eric Gordon.
It's happening!
Posted on 4/18/14 at 2:03 pm to corndeaux
quote:Despite all their winning, Boston has never been a destination city/team for high level free agents, for many reasons. So you'd figure, just like with KG and Ray Allen, if Ainge is going to get a star player there, it would have to come in a trade.
Also, Flannery had a good read on the Celtics looking to make moves this summer. Specifically mentions Sullinger and Olynyk as being potential bait for a big fish.
I don't think Sullinger, Olynyk and middling draft picks get it done though.
But, assuming they'll be terrible again next year, maybe around the deadline they're willing to throw in their 2015 lottery pick if they want a star. Otherwise, its tough to see how they get it done.
That pick should be really valuable. I think Jahlil Okafor is Demarcus Cousins without the attitude issues.
eta: Forgot they'll also have whoever they select this year, to put in a deal too.
This post was edited on 4/18/14 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 4/23/14 at 4:27 pm to eyeran
Pulling this from an ESPN article on Portland's style of play vs. Houston's style of play.
LINK
I'm not posting this to say we need to play like Houston. I just wish the Demps/Monty tandem would show more signs of creative problem solving, market knowledge, and the basic concept of playing to your strengths.
Simple enough idea.
Can't really see Demps saying this. Maybe I'm wrong.
LINK
I'm not posting this to say we need to play like Houston. I just wish the Demps/Monty tandem would show more signs of creative problem solving, market knowledge, and the basic concept of playing to your strengths.
quote:
If you're wondering, here's the astonishing midrange shot count in the 2013-14 regular season:
Midrange shots
ESPN
Aldridge: 899
Rockets: 728
The Rockets have all but abandoned the midrange game as part of a team-wide philosophy to pound the holy trinity of high-efficiency areas on the floor: the basket, the free throw line and the 3-point line. This has come to be known as "Moreyball," named after Rockets GM Daryl Morey. Midrange shots, on average, don't have a high payoff because they rarely don't yield foul calls and they are just about as likely to go in as 3-point shots. So they avoid them.
quote:
The day will come when Morey acquires a midrange maven like Aldridge. It just hasn't happened yet.
So, would Morey ask the player to change his stripes in the name of Moreyball? Or would he let the player shoot his shot like the Blazers have?
To Morey, it's an easy answer.
"If we had a player like Aldridge, we would play to his strengths as well," Morey says. "The key in this league isn't to be dogmatic to a certain idea, but to play to the strengths of your players and to put them in a system that's most effective for them."
Simple enough idea.
quote:
If it helps increase the odds of coming out on top, Morey is on board regardless of how it fits with their present scheme. If you haven't noticed, Howard hasn't started taking 3-point shots
"For sure, we wouldn't do that," Morey said. "That'd be crazy. If we had a player like Aldridge, I think we'd comfortably be letting him bomb away from the midrange if it helped us win games."
The insights of analytics is constantly changing because the market is constantly changing. As teams smarten up about the payoffs of certain shots, they'll become more sought after on the open market. It's Economics 101. And as demand for certain types of players rises, so, too, will the price of those players.
At some point, the 3-point shooting bubble will burst and other shots will become more valuable. There is a natural cycle to these things. In the same way that players with high on-base percentages ceased to be a market inefficiency after "Moneyball" became a national bestseller, guys like Kyle Korver will be making $10 million annually, not the current $6 million. And then the market will react.
And soon, the midrange shot won't be passé for long.
"That's the very nature of market dynamics," Morey says. "It question is not 'What is the best shot?' It's 'What is the best relative to what everyone else thinks?' That's the challenge that you're trying to solve."
Can't really see Demps saying this. Maybe I'm wrong.
Posted on 4/23/14 at 5:21 pm to Spitting Venom
Nice catch. It's a really fascinating topic.
I don't think you can just abandon mid range shots, but the numbers are quite convincing in terms of FT, RA, and 3FG being the shots you typically want. Pretty sure I've linked to Zillers Green Triangle post before. If not here, google it if you're interested.
I have some trouble with the way the article uses the baseball analogy and Moreys quote at the end. Either faulty writing or faulty logic there.
What's interesting about what you linked is that Aldridge isn't THAT great from mid range. Smiht shot it at 45% and we are likely unanimous that he shot way too often. Aldridge is at 42% and his 13 FGA/G from mid range are great offense?
Portland was really cooking when they were bombing away from 3 early in the season. They got tired, lazy, and teams started to stick to shooters instead of helping on Aldridge and things got troublesome for them.
I don't think you can just abandon mid range shots, but the numbers are quite convincing in terms of FT, RA, and 3FG being the shots you typically want. Pretty sure I've linked to Zillers Green Triangle post before. If not here, google it if you're interested.
I have some trouble with the way the article uses the baseball analogy and Moreys quote at the end. Either faulty writing or faulty logic there.
What's interesting about what you linked is that Aldridge isn't THAT great from mid range. Smiht shot it at 45% and we are likely unanimous that he shot way too often. Aldridge is at 42% and his 13 FGA/G from mid range are great offense?
Portland was really cooking when they were bombing away from 3 early in the season. They got tired, lazy, and teams started to stick to shooters instead of helping on Aldridge and things got troublesome for them.
This post was edited on 4/23/14 at 5:25 pm
Posted on 4/25/14 at 4:32 pm to corndeaux
There have been some lazy so-called arguments put forward here for just abandoning the "long 2" or whatever disparaging, poorly-defined term said poster is using to try to incorrectly repeat what they misunderstood from what someone else said or wrote, so it's nice to see someone like Morey flat-out say that defenses adjust, which affects efficiency, a point which I raised in the face of the paper-thin lobs.
It just goes to show, not all analysis is good analysis, and that dude has been given the keys to car, held onto them, and delivered the goods . . . he's worth listening to. Why some slavishly take in what writer A says over writer B with absolutely no consideration for what they are uploading into their precious mental real estate is beyond me, but I expect it to continue to happen.
Sad, sad annoyance.
Thanks for the find.
It just goes to show, not all analysis is good analysis, and that dude has been given the keys to car, held onto them, and delivered the goods . . . he's worth listening to. Why some slavishly take in what writer A says over writer B with absolutely no consideration for what they are uploading into their precious mental real estate is beyond me, but I expect it to continue to happen.
Sad, sad annoyance.
Thanks for the find.
Posted on 4/25/14 at 4:34 pm to Spitting Venom
quote:
I'm not posting this to say we need to play like Houston. I just wish the Demps/Monty tandem would show more signs of creative problem solving, market knowledge, and the basic concept of playing to your strengths.
I get what you are saying, but at this point, I'm not convinced these guys have the roster they are trying to build.
If we assume that Dell, etc. thought this roster, at least in terms of key players, is complete, then I think you are correct in assessing the deficiencies of the brass.
If we assume that the roster is very fluid, then we reserve judgment.
I tend to fall in the latter camp.
Posted on 4/25/14 at 9:12 pm to 42
Its fascinating.
Context is everything in basketball. We know what shots are the best in an ideal setting, but rarely do you get that setting
Just look at how few corner 3s WAS and SAS have taken in the playoffs v regular season. You still need an cohesive identity (hello, OKC) but do you have the tools on the coaching bench and on the roster to adapt?
The key to me seems to be getting enough guys who are Swiss Army knives (or just a few superduper stars- so easy
). Shoot and drive. Drive and finish or pass to the open man. Et al
I do wonder what the natural reaction to layups and 3s is. Maybe amoeba zones (like Dallas is running and similar to the Spurs in the Finals) become the trend?
Context is everything in basketball. We know what shots are the best in an ideal setting, but rarely do you get that setting
Just look at how few corner 3s WAS and SAS have taken in the playoffs v regular season. You still need an cohesive identity (hello, OKC) but do you have the tools on the coaching bench and on the roster to adapt?
The key to me seems to be getting enough guys who are Swiss Army knives (or just a few superduper stars- so easy
). Shoot and drive. Drive and finish or pass to the open man. Et al I do wonder what the natural reaction to layups and 3s is. Maybe amoeba zones (like Dallas is running and similar to the Spurs in the Finals) become the trend?
Posted on 4/28/14 at 9:20 am to corndeaux
Reading GMIB and reports are Jack Ramsay passed away. Sad day for hoops lovers.
Everyone should go read Breaks of the Game by David Halberstam. Arguably the best sports book ever written and it focuses on Ramsay's great Walton led Portland teams of the late 70s
Everyone should go read Breaks of the Game by David Halberstam. Arguably the best sports book ever written and it focuses on Ramsay's great Walton led Portland teams of the late 70s
Posted on 4/28/14 at 9:29 am to corndeaux
And to lighten the mood, Shaq tripping over a trash can
Posted on 4/28/14 at 10:04 am to corndeaux
Saw that last night. I didn't get the whole context of Shaq racing Kenny to the stage every time Kenny got up, but it was pretty funny seeing the big man hustle. The trash can was the icing on the cake.
Posted on 4/29/14 at 10:19 am to Galactic Inquisitor
Really interesting break down of Houston's defense on Aldridge w/ Howard and Jones v w/ Asik.
Lots of pictures and analysis
LINK
Lots of pictures and analysis
quote:
The game looks quite a bit different when Asik is tasked with guarding Aldridge. Quite unlike Jones and Howard, Asik has a keen understanding that defense begins when the opposing team gets the ball, not when your specific man gets the ball. Compared to the free-range roaming that Howard and Jones allow LaMarcus, Asik is already bothering Aldridge from the earliest seconds of the shot clock.
LINK
Posted on 4/29/14 at 10:58 am to corndeaux
Honestly, that's a huge part of covering Aldridge. He's quick to pull the trigger with just a foot of room, so if you are sliding to cover after he receives a pass you have a much smaller chance of defending him at all. I guess Howard just likes to prowl the paint, but when you are playing against a big man who can shoot 15-20 footers, that's the wrong type of defense to be playing.
Posted on 4/29/14 at 6:27 pm to Spitting Venom
quote:
He's quick to pull the trigger with just a foot of room
Yeah. That one picture of Asik literally covering him up on a jumper that he made is ridiculous. Sometimes there is just nothing you can do.
Heres another one from the great Zach Lowe. This focuses on the value of mid level ($5-$10M) contract guys. Much of the league has shied away from those deals, for good reason. But Lowe argues they can be a huge difference in the playoffs
quote:
The “pretty good” NBA veteran has taken a beating over the last half-decade.
He reads PT
quote:
In that hothouse atmosphere (playoffs), it becomes much harder to hide one player’s glaring weakness, and that is where the “pretty good” veterans renew their value — where the extra 20 percent shows up.
He then looks at Houston, Washington, and OKC/MIA and how their rosters are holding up
LINK
This post was edited on 4/29/14 at 6:28 pm
Posted on 4/29/14 at 10:27 pm to corndeaux
Posted on 4/30/14 at 9:22 am to eyeran
Yep. Heard that yesterday. Lot of truth in what Jones says.
Glad they finally booted Sterling. Long overdue and justly celebrated but it's a sad commentary that bigoted comments about his mistress's Instagram feed elicit this reaction while real, institutionalized racism was given a pass. Still have a long way to go to get to an honest conversation on race in this country.
By far, Silver's worst moments yesterday were questions about Sterlings previous actions and the NBA's silence
Glad they finally booted Sterling. Long overdue and justly celebrated but it's a sad commentary that bigoted comments about his mistress's Instagram feed elicit this reaction while real, institutionalized racism was given a pass. Still have a long way to go to get to an honest conversation on race in this country.
By far, Silver's worst moments yesterday were questions about Sterlings previous actions and the NBA's silence
Posted on 5/1/14 at 1:31 am to corndeaux
Finally got around to listening to the full Bomani clip. That was great.
Didn't want to throw Stern under the bus IMO
quote:
By far, Silver's worst moments yesterday were questions about Sterlings previous actions and the NBA's silence
Didn't want to throw Stern under the bus IMO
Posted on 5/1/14 at 8:36 am to Cap Crunch
I don't get what's so hard to understand about the situation. Social Media amplifies the damage caused by mistakes which in turn amplifies the measures you must take to remedy said mistakes. On top of that you have a brand new commissioner who will set the tone for his reign based on how he handles this, his first crisis. Not only did he win the players respect by going nuclear in a way they wanted him to, he probably scared them a little. I know I didn't think he had the power to do what he did. Now everyone knows Silver is not a man to be trifled with.
This post was edited on 5/1/14 at 8:38 am
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