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re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)

Posted on 12/31/12 at 12:39 pm to
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27813 posts
Posted on 12/31/12 at 12:39 pm to
LINK

updated as of a few minutes ago. Still in first
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126824 posts
Posted on 12/31/12 at 1:38 pm to
You omitted PlanoPrivateer's oil prediction.

When you include it, $95.00, he has the Gold Medal with a deviation of 8.95% to your 9.41%.

Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27813 posts
Posted on 12/31/12 at 3:23 pm to
Ok just added his. Which price listing are we going to use? Right now we are virtually tied.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126824 posts
Posted on 12/31/12 at 5:25 pm to
quote:

Which price listing are we going to use?

CNBC-US Markets: As of 5 PM CST 12/31/12

Overall Best Average Predictions:
Gold Medal: PlanoPrivateer: 9.16% average deviation
Silver Medal: C: 9.20% average deviation
Bronze Medal: lynxcat: 10.02% average deviation

DJ30: Actual = 13,104.14
Gold Medal: LSUtoOmaha: (Prediction 13,094.62) .07% deviation
Silver Medal: LSURussian: (Prediction 13,250.00) 1.11% deviation
Bronze Medal: PlanoPrivateer: (Prediction 12,800.00) 2.32% deviation

S&P500: Actual = 1,426.19
Gold Medal: C: (Prediction 1,430.00) .27% deviation
Silver Medal: LSU0358: (Prediction 1,400.00) 1.84% deviation
Bronze Medal: Chris Farley: (Prediction 1,480.00) 3.77% deviation

NASDAQ: Actual = 3,019.51
Gold Medal: LSURussian & lynxcat (tie) (Prediction 2,950.00) 2.3% deviation
Bronze Medal: C: (Prediction 3,100.00) 2.67% deviation

EUR/$: Actual = $1.3197
Gold Medal: PlanoPrivateer: (Prediction $1.2500) 5.28% deviation
Silver Medal: LSU0358: (Prediction $1.4000) 6.08% deviation
Bronze Medal: GumboPot: (Prediction $1.23) 6.80% deviation

10 Year Bond: Actual = 1.761%
Gold Medal: LSU0358: (Prediction 1.80%) 2.21% deviation
Silver Medal: ProjectPat: (Prediction 2.0%) 10.73% deviation
Bronze Medal: Tigress & PlanoPrivateer (tie) (Prediction 2.000%) 13.57% deviation

30 Year Bond: Actual = 2.953%
Gold Medal: ProjectPat: (Prediction 2.950%) .10% deviation
Silver Medal: Tigress: (Prediction 3.000%) 1.59% deviation
Bronze Medal: LSU0358 (Prediction 2.8000%) 5.18% deviation

Gold: Actual = $1,675.80/oz
Gold Medal: Zilla: (Prediction $1,650.00) 1.54% deviation
Silver Medal: C & ProjectPat (tie) (Prediction $1,500.00) 10.49% deviation

Silver: Actual = $30.227/oz
Gold Medal: GumboPot: (Prediction $34.00) 12.48%% deviation
Silver Medal: ProjectPat (Prediction $26.00) 13.98%% deviation
Bronze Medal: PlanoPrivateer (Prediction $25.20) 16.63%% deviation

Oil: Actual = 91.82
Gold Medal: LSURussian & Tigress (tie) (Prediction $90.00) 1.982% deviation
Bronze Medal: PlanoPrivateer & Chris Farley (tie) (Prediction $95.00) 3.46% deviation

Best Single Category Prediction: LSUtoOmaha: Dow Jones 30, Prediction of 13,094.62, actual = 13,104.14 for a deviation of .07%!


Worst Single Category Prediction: goodgrin: Silver, Prediction of $65.00/oz, actual = $30.227/oz for a deviation of 115.04%!


Thanks to everyone for playing!
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27813 posts
Posted on 12/31/12 at 6:42 pm to
Really surprised at the bump oil had over the last few weeks. Was feeling really good about my 85$ prediction...
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24118 posts
Posted on 12/31/12 at 8:28 pm to
I'll take the bronze
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27813 posts
Posted on 12/31/12 at 10:28 pm to
Funny thing, I just added the beginning prices for 2012 to the bottom of the spreadsheet and got a 7.12% deviation... not sure what it really means.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
126824 posts
Posted on 1/1/13 at 9:30 am to
Wouldn't that mean that prices changed by an average of 7.12% since 12/31/11?
Posted by Chris Farley
Regulating
Member since Sep 2009
4180 posts
Posted on 1/1/13 at 10:04 am to
I got 3rd in the only two things I have actual big ETF positions in, S&P and Oil. I'm a wizard.
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27813 posts
Posted on 1/1/13 at 11:44 am to
Haha I meant what it means as an indication for how we predicted. Are we predicting way to much volatility vs reality?
Posted by Projectpat
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2011
10521 posts
Posted on 1/10/13 at 7:43 pm to
quote:

Gold Medal: ProjectPat: (Prediction 2.950%) .10% deviation




WHIFFED on the market indices.
This post was edited on 1/10/13 at 7:45 pm
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