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Started By
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re: Oil Spill and Offshore Fishing (Latest Developments)
Posted on 5/1/10 at 6:52 pm to baytiger
Posted on 5/1/10 at 6:52 pm to baytiger
quote:
BP just said they estimate 5,000 bbl/day and didn't explain how they got to that number
While I don't doubt BP could or would be underestimating this spill they at least have likely seen visual images of the oil through their ROV cameras. SkyTruth probably cannot claim the same.
This post was edited on 5/1/10 at 6:54 pm
2
Posted on 5/1/10 at 7:00 pm to TigerDog83
Any website that has "truth" in its name probably pushes a hardcore leftist political propaganda. Al Gore approves.
Posted on 5/1/10 at 7:02 pm to tiger91
Google it.
Fyi...I was calling for B and C 3 days ago.
Fyi...I was calling for B and C 3 days ago.
Posted on 5/1/10 at 7:03 pm to Tbobby
quote:it's a play on "ground truth"
Any website that has "truth" in its name probably pushes a hardcore leftist political propaganda. Al Gore approves.
ground truth is based on in situ observations
sky truth is based on remote sensing
Posted on 5/1/10 at 7:03 pm to paulie
How often is the BOP checked and is the checking regulated?
Posted on 5/1/10 at 7:06 pm to TigerDog83
quote:
While I don't doubt BP could or would be underestimating this spill they at least have likely seen visual images of the oil through their ROV cameras.
cool
so how about they release that data for fact checking/peer review?
Posted on 5/1/10 at 7:07 pm to tgrbaitn08
Posted on 5/1/10 at 7:09 pm to meauxjeaux2
That's great news. I'm prob. heading to St. Bernard. A lot less red tape from what I'm hearing
Posted on 5/1/10 at 7:11 pm to tiger91
Not sure if they can do anything in 5000' of water.
Posted on 5/1/10 at 7:35 pm to jlc05
Fairly regular intervals. In between wells, they are serviced and tested heavily. When they are on the well, tests are regularly scheduled to fit in between drilling operations. I think after a casing section has been cemented, before they drill out of the casing and make new hole.
Posted on 5/1/10 at 7:39 pm to GeauxDeep
In an interview ( link a few pages back) one of the rig workers said the BOPs had been tested the day before.
Posted on 5/1/10 at 7:44 pm to baytiger
There's a picture in the first few pages of this thread showing one of the leaks. There's no definitive way to gauge flow out of the well.
Without controlling the well, alot of the variables in the equation can't be know...I would think.
Without controlling the well, alot of the variables in the equation can't be know...I would think.
Posted on 5/1/10 at 8:00 pm to GeauxDeep
quote:
There's a picture in the first few pages of this thread showing one of the leaks. There's no definitive way to gauge flow out of the well.
I realize there is no way to accurately estimate flow but BP knows the ID of the riser and drill pipe the oil is coming out of so they probably can determine a better estimate through their ROV images than some website looking at sheen from satellite images. From what info is available this particular reservoir had never been flow tested it appears.
This post was edited on 5/1/10 at 8:02 pm
Posted on 5/1/10 at 8:27 pm to TigerDog83
quote:
ID of the riser and drill pipe the oil is coming out of so they probably can determine a better estimate through their ROV images than some website looking at sheen from satellite images. From what info is available this particular reservoir had never been flow tested it appears.
I'm with you on who would know better. They drilled into a productive area and controlled it. Probably analyzed it and planned their temp abandonment. I'm not sure where they were at in the abandonment stage, or if they were in that phase at all. With Halliburton's involvement, maybe it was during the cementing phase, which can get tricky.
So their "estimates" probably take those initial findings into account.
Just using the hydraulic equation for flow rate, if we could figure a velocity for the oil flow, you can get do the math on the rest. Highly inaccurate still because the riser is crimped....big time.
I don't want to take away from the seriousness of this spill; but, place one drop of motor oil into a swimming pool. The sheen will spread out like crazy. But the main concentration of oil is still very small and getting smaller as it dilutes across the water surface. Just sayin', pictures can be deceiving.
Posted on 5/1/10 at 9:05 pm to GeauxDeep
quote:BP has the one thing no one else does... reservoir data. The PG guys are pretty accurate, especially if the well was already in a pay zone.
That's more than BP showed with their "oh, it's 5000" that they said on Thursday morning.
They could be lying through their teeth, but the MMS also has BHP data (presumably). I trust the people with the knowledge more than assuming a thickness over a sketched area on a map. Just me.
Posted on 5/1/10 at 9:39 pm to Taxing Authority
They should have had an accurate handle on the initial flow rates from the well,which as I recall were 8000 bopd. So I would say the 5000 bopd current estimates are probably accurate. The reports of the well flowing 20,000 bpd are ridiculous.
I'm not aware of any way of testing the shear rams during operations. And the shear rams are the last and most trusted line of defense. So i dont see how they couldhave known the BOP was working fine. I am sure they probably recentlyhad performed test to ensure the casing would hold though.
quote:
In an interview ( link a few pages back) one of the rig workers said the BOPs had been tested the day before.
I'm not aware of any way of testing the shear rams during operations. And the shear rams are the last and most trusted line of defense. So i dont see how they couldhave known the BOP was working fine. I am sure they probably recentlyhad performed test to ensure the casing would hold though.
Posted on 5/1/10 at 9:58 pm to lsugradman
quote:Don't know what choke was used for the test. But at that depth, back pressure would be 2,100-2,200 psi?
They should have had an accurate handle on the initial flow rates from the well,which as I recall were 8000 bopd. So I would say the 5000 bopd current estimates are probably accurate. The reports of the well flowing 20,000 bpd are ridiculous.
Posted on 5/1/10 at 9:59 pm to lsugradman
So if the estimates of 5000bpd is accurate what would be the estimate if the well was free flowing around or outside of the BOP?
Posted on 5/1/10 at 10:03 pm to TigerFred
quote:
So if the estimates of 5000bpd is accurate what would be the estimate if the well was free flowing around or outside of the BOP?
Could it possible that that number could be over 100,000 bbls a day?
Posted on 5/1/10 at 10:07 pm to TigerFred
quote:Probably not much different. The only thing restricting flow now is a kink in the riser. If it bridged over and came around the casing the flow would probably be less. More restrictive than flowing through nice clean pipe as it is now.
So if the estimates of 5000bpd is accurate what would be the estimate if the well was free flowing around or outside of the BOP?
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