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Message
re: Arsenal 2015/2016 Season Long Thread
Posted on 10/6/15 at 2:47 pm to DestrehanTiger
Posted on 10/6/15 at 2:47 pm to DestrehanTiger
quote:
It was good to see Harry get his second goal this past weekend.
Clinical. Clearly shows last year was no mistake and that his not a poacher.
0
Posted on 10/6/15 at 3:34 pm to Mr. Shake
quote:
The only thing that could've made the match better is if AOC's chip had gone in at the 90th minute.
Poor Ox. He's the master of the almost amazing goal.
Also, the key pass thing, at least on Who Scored, is a pass that leads to a shot, not a pass that leads to an assist.
Ramsey's had some delicious balls the last few games that have lead to assists or would-be assists. I mean, his balls are always delicious, but they've been even more so of late, as long as he's not taking shots.
This post was edited on 10/6/15 at 3:40 pm
Posted on 10/6/15 at 4:01 pm to Stewie Griffin
quote:
Also, the key pass thing, at least on Who Scored, is a pass that leads to a shot, not a pass that leads to an assist.
For me a key pass should mean a pass that unlocks a defense. Think of Cazorla's pass to Gibbs against Middlesbrough. The assist should be termed something like chances created, because the pass I'm describing in the first scenario is one that won't lead to any statistic, when it is in fact the most important pass in the move, in my view. The square ball that Gibbs gave to Giroud was no doubt difficult, but the chance wouldn't have been created if not for Cazorla unlocking the defense.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 4:08 pm to crazy4lsu
I'm pretty sure WhoScored only considers passes that lead to shots as key passes. I agree with your reasoning.
Also, from Twitter.
From Reddit:
Also, from Twitter.
quote:
Mesut Özil & Theo Walcott have played 1,495 minutes together, contributing 51 goals; a goal every 29.3 minutes. #afc
From Reddit:
quote:
In the 18 games that Özil & Walcott have started together, they've got a combined total of 18 goals & 13 assists.
This post was edited on 10/6/15 at 4:09 pm
Posted on 10/6/15 at 4:12 pm to Stewie Griffin
quote:
If we are going to be successful, we're going to have to press, to invite teams to create chances, so as to open up space behind them.
We have to employ both strategies. The problem is that we are inconsistent in the high press. Hell it's been rare when we've been consistent in it. I think the only time we were really superb at it was the first 15 minutes of the Everton game in March of 2012, when Ramsey scuffed a brilliant chance in off a Van Persie header, which Van Persie apparently eviscerated him for in the locker room. It had the vaunted TV5-LK6 CB pairing, and we were absolutely amazing the first 15 mins.
The way I see it is that we have to invite teams into the low block and over run them, but position Theo and Alexis high and wide so that the break is always there. The passage where I think it was Coquelin won the ball and Ozil recovered and passed it to Ramsey, who played it by Young who took the yellow rather than let play continue, was the perfect strategy for the low block.
Basically what we need is consistent communication on when to press and when to retreat. If a player decides to press and has no one with him, then he's effectively out of the play for the entire possession. You have to press in pairs and trios, as groups rather than individuals. Individual closing down does nothing in the modern game.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 5:32 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
You have to press in pairs and trios, as groups rather than individuals. Individual closing down does nothing in the modern game.
That is what made Dortmund under Klopp so effective. They pressed in waves and when they got it right were unplayable.
Posted on 10/6/15 at 9:13 pm to Stewie Griffin
quote:
I mean, his balls are always delicious
Posted on 10/7/15 at 12:21 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
For me a key pass should mean a pass that unlocks a defense. Think of Cazorla's pass to Gibbs against Middlesbrough. The assist should be termed something like chances created, because the pass I'm describing in the first scenario is one that won't lead to any statistic, when it is in fact the most important pass in the move, in my view. The square ball that Gibbs gave to Giroud was no doubt difficult, but the chance wouldn't have been created if not for Cazorla unlocking the defense.
I've never found one that really attempts to measure this but you can bet coaches write them in those little notes they take.
In fact, I think there should be a stat, perhaps called "Pivot Play", that's simply the main play that "makes all the chips fall into place" before an assist/ goal or perhaps even clear chances on goal.
In watching Roma, a friend and I recorded these for a couple of seasons (due to having a DVD comp of all buildups to goals) but only for actual goals (which is problematic of course in that many of the best result in a missed shot, amazing save etc). . . .
For example, we included the type clever touch or pass usually under duress (often even in the defensive third) where the opposition has players committed to press and that one play "turns the tables" and creates the resulting space/imbalance where then the "key pass" and "assist" and goal is made.
However, being defensive midfield connoisseurs, we also included the tackles / takeaways that accomplish the same thing. For example, Naingollan and De Rossi have a lot of these where they tackle to break up an attack in numbers but also manage to come up clean with the ball in a single motion and quickly to play it ahead to "flip flop" the numbers.
A couple of things we gleaned for Roma:
Pjanic --who already is the top of Serie A in "key passes" every season-- was even more off the charts with these type unexpected touches or passes in our own half that completely threw the defense out of kilter. I know Cazorla was a master of those moments too with those Villarreal teams that were so much fun to watch.
Gervinho -- can look like a clown at times but the amount of times his dribbles were the "pivot" in an eventual goal even if he didn't assist or score (or even if he was dispossessed but only after three defenders were drawn over) were surprising even in matches Roma fans railed on him for blowing his own easy scoring chances and demanded Rudi Garcia be fired for playing him.
For all the great players and dizzying tactical nuances: a surprising number of "pivot" plays were much more "luck" than anything else like a long ball that's headed into someones back and bounces off an unknowing heel right into the perfect path for a counter attack.
This post was edited on 10/7/15 at 12:24 am
Posted on 10/7/15 at 7:40 am to glassman
quote:
Former Aston Villa striker Juan Pablo Angel's son has been on trial at Arsenal.
Tomy Angel, 12, has spent a stint training at the Gunners' highly-respected Hale End academy.
The youngster has developed his talents in the USA while his father finished his playing career in the MLS with New York Red Bulls, LA Galaxy and Chivas USA.
daddy angel was fun to watch. i think arsenal almost signed him around 2004
This post was edited on 10/7/15 at 7:41 am
Posted on 10/7/15 at 11:40 am to wm72
quote:
In fact, I think there should be a stat, perhaps called "Pivot Play", that's simply the main play that "makes all the chips fall into place" before an assist/ goal or perhaps even clear chances on goal.
I really like this, because it uses stats with context. Once you agree on a context, stats can be useful. If you fundamentally disagree with the meaning of a "key pass" then you can't completely trust the metric. If there were context with it, then it would have a nuance which would reflect the actual game rather than simply measuring an event.
quote:
For all the great players and dizzying tactical nuances: a surprising number of "pivot" plays were much more "luck" than anything else like a long ball that's headed into someones back and bounces off an unknowing heel right into the perfect path for a counter attack.
That can be also be a metric if you can agree upon what events count as "luck" or "good fortune." I wish someone would attempt move toward a more nuanced use of statistics which can take into account contextual details, because all statistics do at the moment is reflect a very small portion of what is actually taking place.
Posted on 10/7/15 at 2:20 pm to crazy4lsu
From Arseblog today:
Link
quote:
TITLE: ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF A SPOTLESS CARRICK
INT. SUPERMARKET. DAY.
Michael Carrick is walking around pushing a trolley. It’s full to the brim with boxes of Pop Tarts, all strawberry, and Dr Oetker cake decorations. He makes his way to the cereal aisle.
A smile begins to form on his face as he reads the back of a box of Coco Pops. What crazy antics is that monkey up to now? Look at him hanging from a tree! Holding a bowl of cereal! He’ll spill it, silly monkey!! He almost begins to laugh but then something occurs to him and his face crumples into sadness.
FLASHBACK
Carrick against Arsenal on Sunday watching a tiny Spaniard do things to him. Footballistacally.
END FLASHBACK
The Coco Pops packet is on the floor. The trolley has been abandoned.
CUT TO: REAR SHOT
Michael Carrick walks slowly, head down towards the exit, like a member of the Bluth family.
Link
Posted on 10/7/15 at 6:16 pm to thenry712
When I saw Carrick paired with Jesus, I had a feeling we would be dominant in midfield. I couldn't believe that Schneiderlin wasn't starting.
Posted on 10/8/15 at 12:29 pm to glassman
Posted on 10/8/15 at 9:50 pm to Stewie Griffin
Posted on 10/8/15 at 10:02 pm to CapitalCityDevil
We can only hope.
Posted on 10/8/15 at 10:36 pm to crazy4lsu
Aguero got hurt for Argentina today. I would never revel in an opposing players' injury (unless he played for Chelsea), especially one as good as Aguero but that's obviously a boost to Arsenal's title chances.
Quoting from Reddit, as it sums up how I feel:
Minus the Hazard bit.
Quoting from Reddit, as it sums up how I feel:
quote:
Sucks, I love watching him play. There's a category of players that are above team allegiances and hatred. He definitely belongs there. Regardless of who they play for and what it means in the title race and stuff, guys like Aguero, Iniesta, Hazard, etc are always going to be special for me.
Not that I'm complaining about gaining that advantage in the title race but I'd rather win and enjoy watching Aguero play.
Minus the Hazard bit.
Posted on 10/9/15 at 5:41 pm to Stewie Griffin
So Alexis, Theo, and Santi (Twice!) have all scored for their respective national teams 
Gotta love the form Alexis and Theo are in right now. Santi finally getting to see the ball go in has to be great for his confidence.
Ozil seemed to be brimming with confidence in Germany's first game.
Hopefully Ramsey finds the back of the net for Wales in one of their games.
Gotta love the form Alexis and Theo are in right now. Santi finally getting to see the ball go in has to be great for his confidence.
Ozil seemed to be brimming with confidence in Germany's first game.
Hopefully Ramsey finds the back of the net for Wales in one of their games.
Posted on 10/9/15 at 6:39 pm to RTR America
We are in great form as a team right now. Amazing turnaround since the Olympiakos debacle. I don't root for injuries, but Silva and Aguero are missing time for City. It isn't easy playing in the EPL without your two best players.
Posted on 10/9/15 at 8:02 pm to RTR America
If Ramsey rediscovers his goal scoring form we are in great shape. The rest of his game has been terrific lately.
Posted on 10/9/15 at 11:11 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
In fact, I think there should be a stat, perhaps called "Pivot Play", that's simply the main play that "makes all the chips fall into place" before an assist/ goal or perhaps even clear chances on goal.
quote:
I really like this, because it uses stats with context. Once you agree on a context, stats can be useful. If you fundamentally disagree with the meaning of a "key pass" then you can't completely trust the metric. If there were context with it, then it would have a nuance which would reflect the actual game rather than simply measuring an event.
Basically, the idea arose from the basic observation that most goals happen in a "condition of imbalance" (as Italian managers like to say) and what we were trying to do was simply trace specific goals back to the certain play most responsible for creating that imbalance.
One irony is that, unlike the famous "Moneyball" story of advanced metrics with American baseball, I'm fairly certain that if you look at the little notebooks Jose Mourinho or Rudi Garcia always jots in during matches you would see, quite specifically, these type plays noted.
(With any other good manager at least mentally noting the same things).
In that sense, to say a key tackle or backheel flick in one's own half can often be much more important to creating a goal than the final tap, is hardly ground breaking. But, there's no stats that really bear that out.
To go really crazy, in addition to denoting the "pivots" leading to goals (PVg), on could also do chances (PVc) and even occurrences of imbalanced numbers in central areas of the pitch (PVi). As you point out though, the latter two would be susceptible to an exponentially growing gray area.
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