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re: X marks the spot - The real reason we are involved in Syria

Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:07 pm to
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
36311 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:07 pm to
quote:

Iraq is broke and Iran's proxy groups were destroyed in the war.



Iran's groups haven't been destroyed. The Iraqi PMF have done a large part of the fighting against ISIS, including the indiscriminate killing of Sunni men. Iran still has 10000 or so operatives in Syria supporting the SAA. Hezbollah is arguably as strong as ever.

The pipeline argument is very unconvincing if you know anything about the region. Iran and Iraq already have pipeline connections to Turkey. Iraq has two. Already Qatar has distanced itself from the KSA (again because there is a rivalry there that isn't covered by the Western press for some reason) and has made overtures to the Iranians. It would be infinitely easier and more profitable for Qatar to work with the Iranians who have existing infrastructure from the South Pars field through Tabriz into Turkey.

Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:07 pm to
quote:

Because the pipeline reduction isn't a sufficient explanation for the Syrian War. ... It makes no sense to fund a war for the sole purpose of building a pipeline.


I felt like I was having one of those rare moments with the mental patient that might produce a breakthrough.... but nah.
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:10 pm to
quote:

quote:
Nothing is better for a massive, vulnerable infrastructure project than total regional chaos!

You serious? Give it a little more effort.




From the guy suggesting the Syrian debacle is over a pipeline.
Posted by Navytiger74
Member since Oct 2009
50458 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:10 pm to
quote:

The Turks are involved for a reason.
Why don't you look at a fricking map and read about restive populations along Turkey's southern border. If you guys bothered trying to grasp the very basic dynamics of the region, its nation's, and the various ethnic and religious sectarian divisions, you wouldn't have to default to all of these stupid, lazy arse conspiracy theories.

There is a legit, clear-as-day non-spooky reason for every country involved in this to be involved. They are not all good reasons, but they are fricking obvious. It's not, as someone said, to destroy an entire country in hopes of running a fricking pipeline that could be redirected to skirt that country entirely for a fraction of the cost and asspain of this 6+ year war.

Jesus.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
36311 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:13 pm to
I have no doubt that each and every one of the foreign players in Syria is playing out both sides of their mouth, as that is pretty much the exact pattern of politics in the ME, and has been for a while.

The pipeline meme has become popular because it fits neatly into a pre-Iraq narrative of ME politics, while at the same time impugning the "globalists" into falling into the same trap. That obfuscates the complicated reality.

People should ask themselves whether, if all the oil resources in the ME disappeared overnight, would the Syrian War stop? The answer for me is no.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
118782 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:14 pm to
quote:

3. Why can't the Quatar pipeline run across SA, under the Red Sea, across Egypt, and then under the Med to Europe?


Likely because the pipeline has to pick up some volumes through SA to become viable. Or, that route is geographically and politically more treacherous than the currently proposed route.

Posted by The Baker
This is fine.
Member since Dec 2011
16163 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:14 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 6:59 pm
Posted by Navytiger74
Member since Oct 2009
50458 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:14 pm to
quote:


Iraq is broke and Iran's proxy groups were destroyed in the war.
Bringing more stupid to the discussion. On a roll. Iran's proxies, especially LH, have suffered losses. But they are as battlefield capable as they've ever been. And Hizballah's never been stronger in Lebanon than they are right now.
Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:14 pm to


Have an upvote, sir.
Posted by cwill
Member since Jan 2005
54752 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:16 pm to
quote:

Or, that route is geographically and politically more treacherous than the currently proposed route.


Posted by Doc Fenton
New York, NY
Member since Feb 2007
52698 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:16 pm to
quote:

People should ask themselves whether, if all the oil resources in the ME disappeared overnight, would the Syrian War stop? The answer for me is no.


Bingo.

It's not like there's a lot of oil in Afghanistan or Kashmir, and look at those places.
Posted by The Baker
This is fine.
Member since Dec 2011
16163 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:16 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 6:59 pm
Posted by Navytiger74
Member since Oct 2009
50458 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:17 pm to
quote:


Likely because the pipeline has to pick up some volumes through SA to become viable. Or, that route is geographically and politically more treacherous than the currently proposed route.

Half the population of Syria has been displaced and no fewer than 6 factions, including ISIS, are warring for various pieces of the country. Precisely what route is more geographically and politically treacherous than that? They'd be better off routing the fricking thing through Somalia and back.
Posted by Navytiger74
Member since Oct 2009
50458 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:18 pm to
quote:

t's about toppling Assad, they thought he'd be out by now. Russia stepped in.
We could drop fire on Assad's arse and take out his whole inner circle and family tonight if his immediate removal was anyone's goal.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
36311 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:18 pm to
quote:

Whatever "rivalry" they have seems to have been set aside when it comes to Syria.



You really haven't followed ME politics for very long, have you? Here is a decent enough article that goes over Qatar.

LINK

The important thing to note is that the Qataris, like all ME groups, talk through both sides of their mouth because they have to. They can be funding ISIS right now, but that doesn't mean they have the same goals.
Posted by The Baker
This is fine.
Member since Dec 2011
16163 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:19 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 6:58 pm
Posted by The Baker
This is fine.
Member since Dec 2011
16163 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:20 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/10/21 at 6:58 pm
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
36311 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:20 pm to
quote:

Likely because the pipeline has to pick up some volumes through SA to become viable. Or, that route is geographically and politically more treacherous than the currently proposed route.



What in the hell are you talking about? Qatar has 3 times more LNG reserves than KSA. They don't need the KSA for anything.
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27824 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:21 pm to
Yep. Let's fight a $100b war so we can save a billion on the pipeline route...
Posted by Navytiger74
Member since Oct 2009
50458 posts
Posted on 4/29/17 at 5:21 pm to
quote:

Then why don't we do it?
Because it's not the goal, smartass. Because we're not prepared for whatever that transition would look like.
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