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Favorite team:LSU 
Location:Zug, Switzerland
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Number of Posts:51151
Registered on:2/27/2007
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re: They say to never time the market... but it looks like it's time to go short - Doc Fenton
Reuters (Feb. 5): "[link=(http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets-yieldcurve-idUSKCN0VD1W6)]Yield curve moves flash global recession warning signs[/link]" [quote]The U.S. two-year/10-year yield curve, the difference between two-year and 10-year borrowing costs, this week fell to 110 basi...
Posted on Money Talk
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re: Trump just skewered Cruz on "This Week" - Doc Fenton
[quote]If he can somehow edge in front of Rubio for NH & SC, then I think it'll quickly turn into a two-man race between him and Trump.[/quote] RedState.com (Jan. 17): "[link=(http://www.redstate.com/2016/01/17/poll-shocker-bush-leading-rubio-south-carolina/)]POLL SHOCKER: Bush Leading Rubio In S...
Posted on Political Talk
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re: Why MLK Day and not Civil Rights Day? - Doc Fenton
:cheers:...
Posted on Political Talk
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re: Why MLK Day and not Civil Rights Day? - Doc Fenton
Yeah. That was awkward to write. Just to be clear, I'm not trying to support the history of the KKK or anything like that. I'm just saying that transition periods are important for every culture to develop the cultural habits that make representative, republican government work. This is true no m...
Posted on Political Talk
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re: They say to never time the market... but it looks like it's time to go short - Doc Fenton
No, I wimped out. But I am completely out of the market, and looking for the best re-entry point. I have been a ton of researching this stuff in my spare time lately, and have been thinking about creating an "Active Investment Management Theory" thread, but I'll probably never get around to it. T...
Posted on Money Talk
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re: Why MLK Day and not Civil Rights Day? - Doc Fenton
[quote]The Civil Rights movement IMO is unquestionably one of the most important periods in America history. It dragged America kicking and screaming from our racist past into a more just present. I wish we had a national day to commemorate all of those people, and not just focus on one man, great a...
Posted on Political Talk
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re: Tracking the Shanghai & Shenzhen markets: AFTY nears its August trough - Doc Fenton
True. I wish you a merry MLK barbeque tomorrow, Brett....
Posted on Money Talk
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re: They say to never time the market... but it looks like it's time to go short - Doc Fenton
From the $200/barrel oil price prediction, to Jan Hatzius continually touting Keynesian stimulus, to the $120 EPS projections, and now this recent statement from Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs just keeps looking worse and worse. They are slipping. MarketWatch (Jan. 14, 2016): "[link=(http://www...
Posted on Money Talk
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re: Tracking the Shanghai & Shenzhen markets: AFTY nears its August trough - Doc Fenton
[quote]brett408[/quote] :wha: No, I am not. P.S. -- The Clemson tiger is truly a horrible mascot....
Posted on Money Talk
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re: Tracking the Shanghai & Shenzhen markets: AFTY nears its August trough - Doc Fenton
Also, there was a pretty good article from Robert Samuelson in the Washington Post last Thursday: "[link=(https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-china-bubble-pops/2016/01/13/ddb67a8e-ba11-11e5-99f3-184bc379b12d_story.html)]The China Bubble Pops[/link]." I like it because he actually starts t...
Posted on Money Talk
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re: Trump just skewered Cruz on "This Week" - Doc Fenton
[quote]Jeb is the most big gov't republican[/quote] WTF? What's the biggest component of government? Entitlements and (for states) public education. Who wants to do more to privatize that than anyone else? Jeb. Rand Paul's posturing aside, this should not be difficult to determine. [quote]do y...
Posted on Political Talk
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re: Tracking the Shanghai & Shenzhen markets: AFTY nears its August trough - Doc Fenton
AFTY dropped to 12.01 at one point on Friday, which is a 51.5% drop from 24.75. Articles last July claimed that $3.5 trillion in Chinese asset value had been erased, so I would estimate the total since last June to be about $6 trillion now. That's a lot of paper wealth to vanish. Putting stock in...
Posted on Money Talk
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re: Trump just skewered Cruz on "This Week" - Doc Fenton
These are strange times....
Posted on Political Talk
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re: Trump just skewered Cruz on "This Week" - Doc Fenton
Clap, clap. That was so beautiful. I don't often say good things about Trump, but the man is tactically brilliant. It's a pity that he's so 180-degrees wrong all the actual policy positions (Chinese tariffs, Mexican wall, Russian cooperation, taxes, health care, etc.) that form the motivation for...
Posted on Political Talk
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re: They say to never time the market... but it looks like it's time to go short - Doc Fenton
So for a little update on these two items: [quote]#2. Mean reversion of corporate profit ratios, which are also too high. (Note the big story about Jeremy Grantham's comments from November 2014.) #3. Falling earnings projections that have already taken place have not yet led to commensurate cha...
Posted on Money Talk
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re: Tracking the Shanghai & Shenzhen markets: AFTY nears its August trough - Doc Fenton
So after about 5.5 months of being propped up by government strong-arming of market participants, AFTY has once again started dropping below its old August trough. Shocking, I (sarcastically) tell you. [b]AFTY[/b] [i](an ETF tracking the FTSE/Xinhua China A50 index)[/i] Jun 8, 24.75 Jul 8, 17....
Posted on Money Talk
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re: Jeb Bush soars into second place in new New Hamphire poll - Doc Fenton
frick. YES! [i](That last exclamation mark was used to connote excitement.)[/i] It's certainly believable. The first poll of 2016 had a virtual logjam of the serious non-Trump candidates. Trump, 29% Rubio, 15% Christie, 11% Kasich, 11% Bush, 10% Cruz, 10% This poll coming just a few ...
Posted on Political Talk
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Tracking the Shanghai & Shenzhen markets: AFTY nears its August trough - Doc Fenton
I started following this around the beginning of June when Bill Gross made his "short of a lifetime" statements about the mainland Chinese stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen (not the ones listed in Hong Kong, and not the ones like Baidu or Alibaba that are listed in New York). The index tha...
Posted on Money Talk
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re: They say to never time the market... but it looks like it's time to go short - Doc Fenton
[quote]You seem inclined to purchase in the money puts. At least that's what I think I'm reading. Why not use lower strike prices. The options will still increase and decrease in value this far out[/quote] I was doing some sensitivity analysis type stuff on spreadsheets based on what my returns w...
Posted on Money Talk
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re: They say to never time the market... but it looks like it's time to go short - Doc Fenton
So it seems to me that in order of increasing riskiness, we have: VIX (~80% short); SPXU (300% short); VIX call options; SPXU put options. And you seem to be saying that, for me, using VIX call options would tend to be a more effective strategy than using SPXU put options, given the fact that I a...
Posted on Money Talk
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