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re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 1/21/15 at 9:42 pm to Asgard Device
Posted on 1/21/15 at 9:42 pm to Asgard Device
So you have inside info that there were bids in excess of 15.25%? I don't.
1
Posted on 1/21/15 at 9:47 pm to LSURussian
quote:
So you have inside info that there were bids in excess of 15.25%? I don't.
No, I don't. Im just ASSuming.
This post was edited on 1/21/15 at 9:48 pm
Posted on 1/22/15 at 1:21 am to Asgard Device
Is that anything like ASSgard?
Posted on 1/22/15 at 8:25 am to MaroonWhite
quote:
, but I wonder if an economic collapse in Russia could lead to an (even more) aggressive military policy similar to Germany in the 1930's?
If you had watched the Frontline Doc on Putin last week, MW...the answer would be obvious. And sobering.
Putin is sitting on 25 BILLION that he stashed; his ruthless cronies too. If the Russian economy collapses and the people go rogue...he has NOWHERE to hide. He will - and already has (the apartment bombing, blamed on Chechnyans) - do ANYTHING to hold power.
Posted on 1/22/15 at 8:46 am to RCDfan1950
Is there a significant chance that the oligarchs will assassinate Putin?
Posted on 1/22/15 at 9:21 am to Asgard Device
quote:
Posted by Asgard Device Is there a significant chance that the oligarchs will assassinate Putin?
To save their skin? Yes.
Great line from Santos in Licence to Kill applies: remember El Presidente, you are only president for life.
Posted on 1/26/15 at 1:08 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 1/26/15 at 1:27 pm to LSURussian
So as I am reading all this I just vaguely recall in one of my dreams last night that Putin was killed or had died.
End of randomness, carry on.
End of randomness, carry on.
Posted on 4/7/15 at 12:26 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Well, 6 months has come and gone. Obviously no default.
The currency has weakened some (although it's presently well off its lows) - about 30% since the prediction date. Of course the Euro has weakened about 15% against the $ over that same time period, so seems hard to judge it as a "collapse".
LINK
The CDS has widened from about 200bps to about 375bps, implying about a 4.2% chance of default in 1 year. Again, that is 23.8:1 odds in your favor if you believe a default is imminent; if you believe a default is imminent, you should be scrambling to put this trade on.
You can use whatever recovery rate you want. Market standard is 40%, I used 20% to be more conservative and because that was about what the recovery was after the 1998 default.
And this was all set to the tailwind of a precipitous plunge in the price of oil (something not mentioned in the OP prediction).
Default by 9-29-15 seems pretty unlikely, although anything can happen. Seems mostly like sensationalism to me.
Posted on 4/7/15 at 1:09 pm to Big Scrub TX
Thanks for the update
Posted on 8/31/15 at 6:34 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 8/31/15 at 6:39 pm to SharpDressedMan
Posted on 8/31/15 at 7:04 pm to SharpDressedMan
Whoa. What a bump. Is russian back?
Posted on 9/28/15 at 9:17 pm to LSURussian
Well, I guess Russia doesn't realize they are going to default in the next 5 hours or so. Too bad for them.
Also, close call with Pimco. I can't believe ol' Bill damned near BANKRUPTED them.
Also, close call with Pimco. I can't believe ol' Bill damned near BANKRUPTED them.
Posted on 9/28/15 at 9:45 pm to SharpDressedMan
That is solid.
Posted on 9/28/15 at 10:00 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Well, I guess Russia doesn't realize they are going to default in the next 5 hours or so. Too bad for them.
Also, close call with Pimco. I can't believe ol' Bill damned near BANKRUPTED them.
Posted on 9/28/15 at 11:30 pm to LSURussian
< Gasp >. What are we going to do? Does this mean we need to build bunkers under our homes and hoard food ans peovisions?
Posted on 9/29/15 at 12:29 am to tarzana
Russia is opening up a middle east front in Syria/Iraq. Let's hope it's expensive.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 12:35 am to SharpDressedMan
Great photo. I'm surprised Putin isn't wearing Bob Craft's Super Bowl ring and a necklace with Obama's nuts dangling off it it though.
Posted on 9/29/15 at 1:02 am to Jwho77
quote:He may have hocked it. Despite the bravado, Russia is not doing well.
Great photo. I'm surprised Putin isn't wearing Bob Craft's Super Bowl ring
Russia may not default on its sovereign debt, but considering its economic cliff dive last Autumn, the OP was a damn insightful post. Oil has recovered some. If it drops again, Russia will be in trouble.
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