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Message
re: Trump approval climbs 13% overnight, Now at 50%
Posted on 3/21/17 at 2:34 pm to Haughton99
Posted on 3/21/17 at 2:34 pm to Haughton99
quote:
It's Rasmussen. The poll that has been the constant outlier.
Ya know. I get this and I'm not some guy who dismisses polls.
But how the frick can we just pretend that a mere 6 months ago, these SAME outlets told us Trump had a sub 40 approval and yet he won?
I'm not saying just dismiss them. But sheesh. A health dose of skepticism is probably appropriate
6
Posted on 3/21/17 at 2:36 pm to ShortyRob
quote:What do you mean a sub 40 approval six months ago? I didn't even think they were tracking approval ratings then.
But how the frick can we just pretend that a mere 6 months ago, these SAME outlets told us Trump had a sub 40 approval and yet he won?
This post was edited on 3/21/17 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 3/21/17 at 2:37 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
But how the frick can we just pretend that a mere 6 months ago, these SAME outlets told us Trump had a sub 40 approval and yet he won?
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Posted on 3/21/17 at 2:37 pm to League Champs
Board full of gullible motherfrickers.
Posted on 3/21/17 at 2:38 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:they were tracking favorably which frankly, is basically the same thing.
t do you mean a sub 40 approval six months ago. I didn't even think they were tracking approval ratings then.
The point I'm making is, it isn't like we didn't ALL just get fooled by polls.
You would think that would slow people's roll
Posted on 3/21/17 at 2:38 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
But how the frick can we just pretend that a mere 6 months ago, these SAME outlets told us Trump had a sub 40 approval and yet he won?
because his opponent's unfavorables were just as bad...
Posted on 3/21/17 at 2:39 pm to ShortyRob
quote:Approval polls are different than election polls. In an approval poll, there isn't much screening involved. In election polls, you screen people to determine whether they are a likely voter. This is significant, because only about 60% of the eligible population voted in the 2016 election. So even if Trump's approval was below 40%, he could still get a significantly higher proportion of the votes cast in the election.
Ya know. I get this and I'm not some guy who dismisses polls.
But how the frick can we just pretend that a mere 6 months ago, these SAME outlets told us Trump had a sub 40 approval and yet he won?
I'm not saying just dismiss them. But sheesh. A health dose of skepticism is probably appropriate
This post was edited on 3/21/17 at 2:40 pm
Posted on 3/21/17 at 2:59 pm to League Champs
Just a different poll. CNN polls gay bars, black lives matter groups and Hollywood!
Posted on 3/21/17 at 3:06 pm to mwade91383
LINK
Nobody should put too much stock in those things. They are usually all over the place depending on who they poll.
Nobody should put too much stock in those things. They are usually all over the place depending on who they poll.
Posted on 3/21/17 at 3:09 pm to LSURussian
quote:
This just can't be. Toddy told us yesterday in the 37% poll thread that Trump's approval rating was going to crash after the Comey hearing yesterday. Are you saying Toddy doesn't know what he's talking about?!
Let's see what the RCP average is over the next few weeks. It's not going to be pretty for Pussy Grabber.
Posted on 3/21/17 at 4:00 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
But how the frick can we just pretend that a mere 6 months ago, these SAME outlets told us Trump had a sub 40 approval and yet he won?
That's an easy one. His opponent's favorable ratings were just as bad. Classic lesser of two evils election. Someone has to win.
Posted on 3/21/17 at 4:12 pm to League Champs
Rasmussen gets one thing "right" and all the trump supporters want to claim it as the only acceptable poll now.
Posted on 3/21/17 at 4:12 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
Who happened to be one of the few to get the election right
Rasmussen had Trump higher than other polls consistently through the campaign. That's just a function the way their set up slants to a pro-republican result. They just happened to be slanted the right way in this election.
The Real Clear Politics Composite approval rate of all the polls it tracks is 43.6%.
Posted on 3/21/17 at 4:14 pm to ForeLSU
quote:the pollsters still claimed that Hillary had a greater than 90% chance of victory. You just can't fricking ignore that and act like all of these folks r squared away six months later
because his opponent's unfavorables were just as bad.
Posted on 3/21/17 at 4:17 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
the pollsters still claimed that Hillary had a greater than 90% chance of victory.
If I would have told you the day of the election that she was going to win the popular vote by over 2%, what percentage chance of winning would you have given her?
Posted on 3/21/17 at 4:25 pm to Haughton99
quote:because I understand how we elect presidents I would have asked for state-by-state polls.
If I would have told you the day of the election that she was going to win the popular vote by over 2%, what percentage chance of winning would you have given her?
And it was the state-by-state polls that posters used to derive their 90% figure
Posted on 3/21/17 at 4:36 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
he pollsters still claimed that Hillary had a greater than 90% chance of victory.
Trump's total margin of victory in 3 key swing states that gave him the victory wouldn't fill up Tiger Stadium. But I do agree, traditional modeling and polling is becoming less and less accurate. It is why campaigns are relying much more on big data.
Posted on 3/21/17 at 4:38 pm to League Champs
Wait, polls matter again?
Posted on 3/21/17 at 4:38 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
But how the frick can we just pretend that a mere 6 months ago, these SAME outlets told us Trump had a sub 40 approval and yet he won?
Don't know what any of this means but I assume it's supposed to mean that you believe Trump's actual odds of winning were not correctly reflected in the polling. I'm pretty sure his odds were rising in the polls right up to the election.
The main reason why the polls were mislead is because many people that ended up voting for him either didn't know they would vote for him or didn't admit it during polling. That's not the fault of the polls.
And the field of predictive analytics is not intended to be used as a crystal ball or magic. And without it, a lot of things you take for granted wouldn't exist.
Posted on 3/21/17 at 4:41 pm to ForeLSU
quote:Damn big stadium.
Tiger Stadium
I suspect on election night Hillary felt it "was like being inside a drum" too.
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