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re: Trump announces decertification of Iranian Nuclear Deal
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:07 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:07 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
it was a bad deal, but the biggest negative effects have already been felt. if you're going to bust Iran for violating the nuclear part of the deal, then bust them. don't frick up our reputation and then open the door to the US being blamed for Iran going nuclear in 5 years. that's just stupidity
This likely means an arms race and a war is probable. The Gulf Arabs and Israel are afraid of Iran, who gained access to areas historically under their sphere of influence due to the US removing Saddam and the Taliban. A war is very likely, and while I think the US can easily depose the current government, Iran's terrain and the fact that Iran is well practiced in asymmetrical warfare means that there will likely be a prolonged insurgency, if the war is handled the same way the Iraq War was.
1
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:07 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
it was a bad deal, but the biggest negative effects have already been felt. if you're going to bust Iran for violating the nuclear part of the deal, then bust them. don't frick up our reputation and then open the door to the US being blamed for Iran going nuclear in 5 years. that's just stupidity
Closing the barn doors after the horses are already out, eh?
I can appreciate your point but for me (and I assume others) it's much more about doing whatever you can to not perpetuate the mistakes of the previous administration. Leaving the agreement in place could be argued as a tacit approval of Iran's not following it. Granted, I wish something had been done sooner but time simply wasn't on Trump's side in this. When your options are "act late" or "do not act at all", you might as well act late to stem whatever bleeding you can.
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:08 pm to MrLarson
quote:
I'd rather us not be holding hands with them when they develop one in 5 years. We'd look like bigger idiots if that were to happen.
we'd at least have the force of the law and the international community to face that issue. we do not, now
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:08 pm to mmcgrath
quote:
start accumulating centrifuges again
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:10 pm to idlewatcher
They aren't much different than NK, just more resources and weaker neighbors. They will never play ball with the West. We just need to accept that and act accordingly.
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:11 pm to crazy4lsu
i think these discussions will be clouded by 2 types of fallacies
1. the assumption that if it's a bad deal, the best thing we can do is dissolve it
2. the absolutely irrational hatred of Obama mixed in with the ability to tarnish his legacy
1. the assumption that if it's a bad deal, the best thing we can do is dissolve it
2. the absolutely irrational hatred of Obama mixed in with the ability to tarnish his legacy
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:11 pm to MrLarson
quote:And saying that Iran broke the deal when the whole world knows they didn't makes us look like what exactly?
I'd rather us not be holding hands with them when they develop one in 5 years. We'd look like bigger idiots if that were to happen.
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:12 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
we'd at least have the force of the law
Law won't matter once they obtain nukes. The only hope then is they don't use them.
Under this deal they don't even have to let inspectors in. So what does the deal do? Other than saying we hope you don't work on nukes and we'll take your word for it.
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:12 pm to Bard
quote:
it's much more about doing whatever you can to not perpetuate the mistakes of the previous administration.
option 2 of my thesis in full effect
quote:
. Leaving the agreement in place could be argued as a tacit approval of Iran's not following it
no. like i said, if they're breaking the deal, then prove it
WE are the bad guys b/c we're backing out with no proof that Iran has taken steps to violate the deal
quote:
When your options are "act late" or "do not act at all", you might as well act late to stem whatever bleeding you can.
what bleeding? why was there a timetable? that assumption makes no sense (and seems to be a major hinge of your argument)
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:12 pm to TrueTiger
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:13 pm to mmcgrath
quote:
And saying that Iran broke the deal when the whole world knows they didn't makes us look like what exactly?
It makes us look like we want to prolong conflict rather than resolve it. And maybe that is what's going on here.
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:13 pm to TrueTiger
Trump dragging his orange nuts all over Obamas legacy . I like it .
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:14 pm to MrLarson
quote:
Under this deal they don't even have to let inspectors in. So what does the deal do? Other than saying we hope you don't work on nukes and we'll take your word for it.
again, the deal was bad
however, we're not going to magically get Iran to (1) give the money back or (2) let inspectors in all of a sudden
if your underlying argument is "Iran is going to develop nukes" then that works both ways. would you rather a reality where their development of nukes violates a major international deal and the developed world has egg on its face OR a reality where the US backing out of a deal with no proof of violation is the reason that allowed Iran to obtain those nukes, and the world rallies against the US?
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:15 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:I honestly always thought you were smarter than this.
and then open the door to the US being blamed for Iran going nuclear in 5 years.
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:15 pm to thetigerman
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:16 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
1. the assumption that if it's a bad deal, the best thing we can do is dissolve it
2. the absolutely irrational hatred of Obama mixed in with the ability to tarnish his legacy
What needs to happen is broader talks. Things were moving in a slightly positive direction, with Al-Sadr hinting to the Saudis that Iran might be willing to talk with himself as the go-between.
Trump disliked the deal from the beginning, but the deal should have been seen as the first step in a broader series of talks. If Iran leaves the deal completely, there isn't a check on their power other than through force. And while the US is a superior fighting force than the Iranians, people don't understand that it is likely that any armed conflict will turn into a region-wide conflict.
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:16 pm to TrueTiger
Very good move
now time to tell the Saudi's to frick off as well.
now time to tell the Saudi's to frick off as well.
This post was edited on 10/13/17 at 12:27 pm
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:17 pm to SlowFlowPro
I’m just curious what the next step will be. I think the only thing Congress can agree to will be to put some sanctions in place, but that then justifies the Iranians becoming more aggressive and provocative.
I think chances of war just escalated immensely.
I think chances of war just escalated immensely.
This post was edited on 10/13/17 at 12:18 pm
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:17 pm to MrLarson
quote:
I'd rather us not be holding hands with them when they develop one in 5 years. We'd look like bigger idiots if that were to happen.
This
Posted on 10/13/17 at 12:17 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I honestly always thought you were smarter than this.
if the US cause this deal to dissolve, and the rest of the world (and Iran) wants this deal in place (with the point being to prevent Iran to go nuclear), then why would the world not blame the US when Iran goes nuclear? we would be seen as the party who dissolved the deal that was stopping them from getting nukes by pretty much everyone (at least publicly)
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