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re: NPR: Rand Paul Bids To Loosen Democratic Hold On African-American Vote
Posted on 4/22/14 at 12:23 pm to Antonio Moss
Posted on 4/22/14 at 12:23 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
If they were smart, they would focus on the Hispanic vote. It has much more pliability and a greater impact than the black vote.
Agreed. I would place the Hispanic vote at a higher importance than the black vote. States like New Mexico, Florida, Colorado, Nevada could all swing back to red with swinging the Hispanic vote.
Although, I think what Rand Paul is doing is great and I hope he has success with it.
This post was edited on 4/22/14 at 12:25 pm
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Posted on 4/22/14 at 12:29 pm to dewster
quote:
Not all republicans are uncomfortable with Rand Paul.
That's correct, but unfortunately for him it's the GOP power brokers that don't like him. They will do everything they can - dig up dirt on him and feed it to the opposition/media and cut his financial support - to keep him from getting the GOP nod.
The thing is, if he can continue to make headlines and gain support, polls will make it difficult for the GOP to ignore. He basically has a year and a half to garner support (shore up conservative/libertarian support and create some Rand Democrats, a la Reagan). If he can keep the momentum going and get through the first few primaries in good shape, then the GOP would be forced to support him as some challengers are eliminated.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 12:29 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
a greater impact than the black vote.
Not true. For cultural reasons, Hispanics don't turnout like Black folks do. In 2012, Blacks made up 11.6% of the voting-age population but made up 13% of the votes cast, while Hispanics made up 15% of the voting-age population but made up only 9% of the votes cast. One of the legacies of the Civil Rights Movement is that even poor Blacks have had it instilled in them that they must vote.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 12:41 pm to trackfan
An extra 10-15% of blacks voting GOP in Cleveland could be enough to swing an entire election. It'll help the AA community too. A steady 90% block of votes just mean the Democrats can play lip service and nothing more. Actually having to compete will give more attention to the issues that matter to them.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 12:42 pm to trackfan
quote:
Not true. For cultural reasons, Hispanics don't turnout like Black folks do. In 2012, Blacks made up 11.6% of the voting-age population but made up 13% of the votes cast, while Hispanics made up 15% of the voting-age population but made up only 9% of the votes cast. One of the legacies of the Civil Rights Movement is that even poor Blacks have had it instilled in them that they must vote.
Greater impact in the sense that their voting block can determine elections. Here are Hispanic returns for the GOP since 2000:
27% 2012
31% 2008
44% 2004
35% 2000
In an eight year span, Hispanics made a 17% change in party votes. Romney wins the popular vote if he gets Bush's 2004 Hispanic vote percentage. In fact, since 1976, if the Hispanic vote differential between the DNC and the GOP is less than 35%, the GOP wins the election.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 12:42 pm to a want
quote:
Bravo. I don't know if it will make a difference in this cycle, but the GOP needs inroads into the AA community....like bad.
You've really loosened up lately FWIW.
And you are quite correct. Once the R's became labeled as the white-man party serving their own, of course minorities would flee. However, there are a good amount of minorities that also have the best interest of our nation at heart that will vote with their brain, instead of what is promised to them.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 12:48 pm to mtntiger
quote:
The thing is, if he can continue to make headlines and gain support, polls will make it difficult for the GOP to ignore. He basically has a year and a half to garner support (shore up conservative/libertarian support and create some Rand Democrats, a la Reagan). If he can keep the momentum going and get through the first few primaries in good shape, then the GOP would be forced to support him as some challengers are eliminated.
I don't see anyway Rand can't make this happen. He's savvy enough to play the media game and has the speaking chops thanks to that incredible filibuster.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 12:51 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
If they were smart, they would focus on the Hispanic vote. It has much more pliability and a greater impact than the black vote.
When he announces Susana Martinez as his choice for VP, Paul will win in a landslide
Posted on 4/22/14 at 12:55 pm to ItNeverRains
@ Martinez Only if she agrees to being irrelevant in the WH while Gary Johnson calls the shots as #2.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 12:56 pm to Sentrius
I agree, and I think his plan is working so far.
It is so frustrating, though, as a conservative. The GOP constantly pays lip service to the notion that it needs to appeal to a wider range of people, but when someone comes along who does just that the old guard tries to squash him.
They've tried 2 straight times to beat a weak Dem candidate by pushing a Dem-lite candidate of their own and got their asses handed to them both times.
What is the definition of stupidity?
It is so frustrating, though, as a conservative. The GOP constantly pays lip service to the notion that it needs to appeal to a wider range of people, but when someone comes along who does just that the old guard tries to squash him.
They've tried 2 straight times to beat a weak Dem candidate by pushing a Dem-lite candidate of their own and got their asses handed to them both times.
What is the definition of stupidity?
Posted on 4/22/14 at 12:57 pm to mtntiger
Not stupid, they win either way. Some will support Hillary over Rand.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 1:04 pm to mtntiger
quote:
It is so frustrating, though, as a conservative. The GOP constantly pays lip service to the notion that it needs to appeal to a wider range of people, but when someone comes along who does just that the old guard tries to squash him.
They've tried 2 straight times to beat a weak Dem candidate by pushing a Dem-lite candidate of their own and got their asses handed to them both times.
It makes me wonder how they would respond to a Rand Paul Presidency if/when that becomes reality.
The issue is though he's going to need a lot of money to hedge himself against the big spenders the GOP will enlist to defeat him. He needs a couple billionaires to help him out. I'm thinking Mark Zuckerberg since they've met several times already. The other one would be be maybe the Koch brothers since they would see the inevitability of a Rand Paul candidacy and concerned with keeping Hillary out of the White House.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 1:08 pm to Sentrius
quote:
Mark Zuckerberg
I thought he was a hardcore leftie. Is he politically pliable?Posted on 4/22/14 at 1:12 pm to Maxx99
Nah, you assumed he was a leftie. Rand and Mark hit it off when Paul visited Silicon Valley. Don't forget Jim Mackey, Peter Thiel, and Jim Rogers as well.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 1:13 pm to Sentrius
quote:
The issue is though he's going to need a lot of money to hedge himself against the big spenders the GOP will enlist to defeat him.
I think the money thing is one of the most overrated discussions in politics. Winners get the money because they are going to win and the big rollers gotta pay for their favors. If he was relatively unknown it would be a much bigger issue, but most Republicans know who he is and what he's about.
I'm sure he's going to catch an onslaught from the Hawks, the Israel #1 crowd, and maybe even from the "values voters". He's got a new message for a base hungry for something new. I just hope he isn't forced to pander to far right in the primaries. He's in a unique position to fight whoever the Dems nominate from the left and the right. I'd hate to see him have to take bullets from his arsenal to win the nomination in the first place.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 1:15 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
Greater impact in the sense that their voting block can determine elections. Here are Hispanic returns for the GOP since 2000:
27% 2012
31% 2008
44% 2004
35% 2000
In an eight year span, Hispanics made a 17% change in party votes. Romney wins the popular vote if he gets Bush's 2004 Hispanic vote percentage. In fact, since 1976, if the Hispanic vote differential between the DNC and the GOP is less than 35%, the GOP wins the election.
What you're saying makes no sense. If either McCain or Romney had gotten Ike's share of the Black vote, he wins the election. A vote is a vote, no matter where it comes from.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 1:16 pm to Antonio Moss
It's not just the votes themselves that matter. Black culture is disproportionately influential. For every black vote he gets, he gains more support from the bleeding heart white lib demographic.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 1:24 pm to trackfan
quote:
What you're saying makes no sense. If either McCain or Romney had gotten Ike's share of the Black vote, he wins the election. A vote is a vote, no matter where it comes from.
Actually it does matter where the votes come from. Majority of blacks live in the south, which already swings heavily right. So winning over blacks in those states won't mean shite. You must garner minority votes from swing states
Posted on 4/22/14 at 1:45 pm to MJM
quote:
Actually it does matter where the votes come from. Majority of blacks live in the south, which already swings heavily right. So winning over blacks in those states won't mean shite. You must garner minority votes from swing states
You have a point, but I would argue that Texas, which has the second largest Hispanic population, is brighter red than Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina and Virgina. Also, Blacks make up a significant percentage of the population in some pretty big northeastern states, like Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey and New York.
Posted on 4/22/14 at 2:01 pm to trackfan
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