re: Klitschko Urges Ukrainian Parliament for Full Mobilization

quote:

---

give your opinions on how this will go down?

---

I did that almost two weeks ago on this board, while the Olympics were still going. LINK

quote:

---

Claiming their 'assistance' is only temporary to prevent loss of life and to stop the violence, Russian troops will move in, backed by tanks and helicopters, first in the Crimea, which used to be Russian soil and where the Russian navy is based even today because of a treaty Yanukovych signed with Russia when he was first elected Pres of Ukraine, and then into eastern Ukraine which is heavily ethnic Russian populated.

The Russian troops will receive a heroes welcome from the ethnic Russians living in eastern Ukraine and the TV news will be filled with photographs and videos of those ethnic Russian Ukrainian citizens presenting flowers to their Russian protectors.

Seeing no response from the west other than a few strongly worded news releases, Russian troops will then move into Kiev and finally into western Ukraine. Western Ukraine has very few ethnic Russians being almost exclusively populated by ethnic Ukrainians and Poles.

All dissidents will be arrested and locked up and probably never heard from again.

The Russian assimilation of Ukraine back into a Russian province will be complete.

---

quote:

---

Considering that Ukraine is stuck between (a) giving up the peninsula, and thus a valuable sea port, or (b) inviting Russia in with a full scale war, what, in your opinion, should be done?

---

War

quote:

---

I did that almost two weeks ago on this board, while the Olympics were still going. LINK

---

The question remains...have you booked your ticket yet to help stave off the russian hordes that are invading the Ukraine?

quote:

---

Russia controls the Peninsula already. They have a military base there and I do not blame them if someone tries to take if from them and they won't give it up. America wouldn't.

---

It is still Ukrainian territory.

Just the port, they didn't lease the whole Crimea.

quote:

---

Translation: I don't know how the Balkans compare to the current situation. I just wanted to look like I knew something earlier and I got caught looking silly.

---

Christ, you're a terrible poster. I don't think I've come across someone on here so brazenly unaware of their own idiocy (as exemplified by your complete inability to understand a comparison above and conviction that I had ever said Russia invaded Serbia), yet so ironically determined to prove himself smart. For such a successful guy, you sure do seem to lack self-confidence.

Since you seem so concerned about an admittedly rough comparison, let's get into it, shall we?

Bosnian Serbs made up roughly 1/3 of the country's demographics, mainly residing in Srpska, a region away from the capital and seemingly without political influence in the newly independent country. Serbia, for its part, saw an increase in Serbian nationalism and innate desire to dominate the Balkans that had (before the Kingdom of Yugoslavia) been unfulfilled since 1389. Realizing its shrinking geopolitical influence, a strong-man used the pretext of protecting the ethnic Serbian minority to support one side in the conflict.

Today, ethnic Russians make up roughly 17% of Ukraine's population. Historically, Russia has sought to and succeeded at dominating Ukraine, and has always considered it a buffer from western incursion, a source of food and resources, and possessing a geopolitically important port city. Without a pro-Kremlin government, Ukraine will look to the West, and Russia's geopolitical influence will be reduced. It will and is using the protection of the ethnic Russians as a pretext for wielding military power in Crimea.

Although a smart guy like you can normally figure it out yourself, you must just be having an off day. So, in both situations:

Historic Domincance + Ethnic Minority Makeup in the neighboring Country + Geostrategic Importance = War

quote:

---

Russian troops will undoubtedly move in to "protect the ethnic Russians" in Crimea.

Your OP starting this thread.

---

You do understand the difference between a full-scale Russian invasion, similar to August '08, and unidentified "Russian sympathizers" in Crimea taking over an airport, right? Or is this one that I have to walk you through as well? I'm not saying a full-scale invasion will not happen, but to this point it has not.

quote:

---

Russia controls the Peninsula already.

---

It does now, but not before this week.

Russia has a lease on the naval base at the port of Sevastopol. The lease does not include the rest of the Crimean Peninsula, which is the size of the state of Massachusetts.

It's like having a lease for the Boston port.

I think the Ukraine is on it's own, I don't think anyone else will lift a finger to help them. I think it's all but over, It's a real shame.

quote:

---

This is really starting to look similar to the 1st World War. And what do you know it is 2014 of all years

---

We're long overdue. 50 years is the very high end of the historical gap between major wars.

quote:

---

How?

---

Let me rephrase. If they wanted to, they could request for them to leave the area. Russia would never go unless made to by force. But, let's face it, the Ukraine does not have the military resources to force Russia out of Sevastopol.

I hate Russia more than any other country and it really sucks that we don't have the will to confront them on this.