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re: It's time for a Universal Basic Income
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:38 am to LSUFanHouston
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:38 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
As certain jobs become automated, new careers tend to pop up.
1. the efficiency is EXPLODING and continuing to increase at an exponential rate
2. new careers require skills/education. there is a massive gap emerging that, like efficiency, is increasing exponentially
1
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:44 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
1. the efficiency is EXPLODING and continuing to increase at an exponential rate
That's awesome. It's awesome that we can produce the requirements for living with less back-breaking labor. It certainly doesn't mean that we need to ship our population off to places where they can work like it's the 19th century.
This board needs some Frederick Bastiat Obstacle/Cause education.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:45 am to SlowFlowPro
Well, the problem is our system doesn't lend itself to the kind of wholesale replacement that would make such a reform make sense. And a UBI on top of everything else would be worse than the status quo.
I get the arguments, and I'm totally down with the bleeding heart libertarian arguments for a UBI funded with some combination of "less bad" tax reforms such as a negative income tax + Pigovian taxes. But only as a wholesale replacement for almost everything. All welfare programs, corporate and individual. All tax deductions. And that's never going to happen. Our system isn't built like that. We can only lurch, incrementally and with great pain, away from imminent disasters.
So I don't really see a way to get there from here. There's no obvious coalitions to build; liberals are too attached to the system and automatically see every attempt at reform as a backdoor assault on the poor. Conservatives are too schizophrenic, their rhetorical base would probably just see red (lol) at the UBI concept and attack it as communism reborn.
I get the arguments, and I'm totally down with the bleeding heart libertarian arguments for a UBI funded with some combination of "less bad" tax reforms such as a negative income tax + Pigovian taxes. But only as a wholesale replacement for almost everything. All welfare programs, corporate and individual. All tax deductions. And that's never going to happen. Our system isn't built like that. We can only lurch, incrementally and with great pain, away from imminent disasters.
So I don't really see a way to get there from here. There's no obvious coalitions to build; liberals are too attached to the system and automatically see every attempt at reform as a backdoor assault on the poor. Conservatives are too schizophrenic, their rhetorical base would probably just see red (lol) at the UBI concept and attack it as communism reborn.
This post was edited on 9/9/14 at 9:46 am
Posted on 9/9/14 at 9:59 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
I don't know if I'm buying this. We've had technological innovations throghout history and we've never had this issue. As certain jobs become automated, new careers tend to pop up.
I somewhat agree. To me the problem that we expect to face (a large-scale mismatch between labor supply and demand, driven by tech/automation bringing massive productivity gains) seems overhyped.
It will happen to an extent, but it has happened before, and in fact continues to happen, even in recent years and decades. The labor force adjusts, although it can't do so instantly.
But it's not like it takes decades for people to learn new skills, either. And those who refuse to learn new skills or find ways to make themselves valuable won't last for very long in our gene pool- unless we accommodate them too much.
And a UBI risks doing exactly that, just as our safety net has.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:33 am to Fun Bunch
this is a good idea, but it won't fly in the US because we want to shite on poor people too badly.
Get rid of separate programs, and just cut a check. Everybody gets cut the same check, and people with money have their taxes raised the same amount.
Gets rid of dis-incentives to work.
Get rid of separate programs, and just cut a check. Everybody gets cut the same check, and people with money have their taxes raised the same amount.
Gets rid of dis-incentives to work.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:34 am to bamarep
quote:really? Saudis seem to do fine.
Time and again, history has given us countless examples where it doesn't.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:34 am to goldennugget
quote:to have more than the minimum.
why would anyone flip burgers? Mop floors? Collect garbage?
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:48 am to Fun Bunch
Anything that is subsidized will produce more of it. Now, the subsidies aren't directly responsible for inactivity, necessarily, but they enable it and, ultimately, encourage it below the break even point. It is only human nature. A hungry person is more likely to accept menial work than a person who is not hungry, all other things being equal.
Conversely, while anything that is taxed will not necessarily produce less of it, beyond a certain point, will divert productive resources into tax avoidance strategies. A cost benefits analysis will be applied to any taxed activity - again, beyond a certain point.
Therefore, a "universal basic income" will, necessarily, end menial work for pay. Either wage inflation (across the board) to draw people into those positions will occur (thus cycling the need to increase the UBI because of inflationary pressures), or more and more of those jobs will be done by machines.
And that's not good for anybody - we need more jobs and more people working in the economy, not fewer.
Conversely, while anything that is taxed will not necessarily produce less of it, beyond a certain point, will divert productive resources into tax avoidance strategies. A cost benefits analysis will be applied to any taxed activity - again, beyond a certain point.
Therefore, a "universal basic income" will, necessarily, end menial work for pay. Either wage inflation (across the board) to draw people into those positions will occur (thus cycling the need to increase the UBI because of inflationary pressures), or more and more of those jobs will be done by machines.
And that's not good for anybody - we need more jobs and more people working in the economy, not fewer.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:50 am to Tigah in the ATL
quote:
Saudis seem to do fine.
Because they have a horde of Palestinians, Pakis and Sri Lankans to clean their toilets and work at fast food joints. Lets not pretend Saudi Arabia is some kind of utopia, either. Yes, they are wealthy enough to provide their very restricted citizenship with a very nice middle class life.
So, you want to cap the number of U.S. citizens, and import, essentially, slave labor without affording our society's traditional protections, without protecting the rights of women, gays, religious minorities (or athiests), in exchange for something like the quasi-wealthy socialism of the Kingdom?
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:54 am to bamarep
quote:
It blows my mind that people think this system works. Time and again, history has given us countless examples where it doesn't.
Like when and where?
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:55 am to ZacAttack
quote:
I've been unemployed for about 6 months and even I think this is a bad idea. It encourages laziness, and poor money choices.
So you're unemployed because you're lazy?
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:55 am to Ace Midnight
quote:
we need more jobs and more people working in the economy, not fewer.
Why?
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:56 am to Tigah in the ATL
quote:Sweet mother of God
this is a good idea,
Posted on 9/9/14 at 10:56 am to Fun Bunch
It's like these people come up with these crazy, insane ideas and run with it without giving any thought to potential setbacks or any consequences it may have.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 11:00 am to Chimlim
Yeah wrapping all welfare services up into one check really is an efficient way to do welfare. What we need is dozens of separate bureaucracies. That's the ticket! One for food welfare, one for housing welfare, one for pregnant mothers. If we combined all that into one program imagine how many government employees would lose their jobs? I won't stand for it!
This post was edited on 9/9/14 at 11:01 am
Posted on 9/9/14 at 11:01 am to Iosh
quote:
And a UBI on top of everything else would be worse than the status quo.
the UBI is a replacement, not a supplement
quote:
But only as a wholesale replacement for almost everything.
it has to be, including the MIC
also, a UBI wouldn't be an equal replacement for all social welfare. it would be like 6-8k/year for adults or something
This post was edited on 9/9/14 at 11:03 am
Posted on 9/9/14 at 11:02 am to uway
quote:
It certainly doesn't mean that we need to ship our population off to places where they can work like it's the 19th century.
if that's all their suitable to do, then what do we do with them here?
those menial jobs will exist, but will be rare. so what do we do with the stupid, willingly ignorant, and those who have shattered their abilities to work in a complex, modern economy? pay them off?
Posted on 9/9/14 at 11:03 am to Fun Bunch
I will fully endorse this idea the day before I retire. I will deserve to be supported by every working person just because I exist. And none of that stinking minimum wage income for me. I deserve an income sufficient to support a middle class lifestyle. My retirement savings do not enter the equation. They are there to provide me with any luxuries I desire and can afford.
I don't care if we burn the system to the ground. Just so long as the conflagration lasts until I die.
The above message was brought to you by AARP, the Association of Aging Redistributionist Phonies.
I don't care if we burn the system to the ground. Just so long as the conflagration lasts until I die.
The above message was brought to you by AARP, the Association of Aging Redistributionist Phonies.
Posted on 9/9/14 at 11:26 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
We've had technological innovations throghout history and we've never had this issue. As certain jobs become automated, new careers tend to pop up.
not necessarily
when AI continues to advance, you are going to see robots take over a significant portion of labor jobs and AI will take over a lot of high level jobs. AI will be able to make better decisions regarding healthcare than doctors, they'll be able to interpret law, etc.
it's going to be so crazy
UBI will almost HAVE to exist
Posted on 9/9/14 at 11:38 am to Pilot Tiger
quote:
UBI will almost HAVE to exist
i prefer emigration
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