re: Am I right to think that the GOP establishment isn't going to repeal ACA?

Remember when Trump said "Single payer has worked in Canada and it has worked incredibly well in Scotland."

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I think once you realize that Mitt Romney was the architect of Obamacare then everything starts to make sense.

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The problem now is that healthcare is 18% of GDP so the forces that will be on either side of the winners and losers equation are very powerful.

Trump learned this with his pulling back on allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices. Subsequently adapting industry talking points that have their own winners and losers.
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Heck one of the most bi-partisan economic ideas conceptually is to pull back on the employer tax credit because it is regressive and distorts the market. The very idea that Republicans may flip and start supporting this repeal again has led to many businesses freaking out already and that will only amplify:

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Go on down to the proposals to block grant Medicaid and you have not just Democrats, but Republican governors clawing back because such block grants that only offer a set amount without tying it to any metrics would make them vulnerable to shocks(like natural disasters or recessions) that would increase the programs usage and push the states into tough situations of begging congress, raising taxes, or cutting major programs. And the push back is coming from Republican governors in key Trump states like Michigan and Ohio:

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Healthcare policy is a landmine field and no comprehensive reform is going to come without meaningful trade offs or concessions that often come at the average consumers expense(thus opening themselves up to charges of corruption/failing the American people) and pissing off very powerful business interest groups that have traditionally won the propaganda war in past battles.

somebody doesn't pay attention

Trying to figure how to message kicking millions of people off of Health Insurance.

Baseline:

The GOP establishment has no loyalty to Mr. Trump. Their base craopped all over them to elect him. The old DC paradigm is up in the air. We'll have to see what shakes out.