GOT Book Readers: Jon Snow question

We are 99.9999999% sure he is not.

To be clear it is still not known one way or the other. But the amount of evidence is strong.

"He (Rhaegar) left my sister and ran off with some dark-haired northern wench." - Oberyn

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How sure are we that he is Ned Stark's son?

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The stories seemed shaky enough to question whether or not he was really a Stark. Ned was not a very good liar.

I've been on the R+L=J for a long, long time, which makes him a Stark, but not Ned's kid.

The only other serious possibility I am entertaining is that he is Ned and Ashara Dayne's kid (and possibly the new "Sword of the Morning") - but I have that much, much, much less likely than R+L=J.

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Don't think it matters who Jon Snows parents are. He could find out he was Jesus Christ reincarnated and would still stoically say "I'm a sworn brotha of tha nights watch" 4 times before brooding off into the cold

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I'm mad. Deal with it

Jon Snow is my favorite character in the books. He absolutely sucks on the show due to both acting and writing, but mainly acting.

The R+L=J theory isn't complicated, OML.

Rhaegar had, arguably, his 3 best men not guarding the King and not with him at the trident. Why?

It has always been implied that he was protecting Lyanna, above all things, and his heir. That is more the action of a lover than a kidnapper, but Lyanna's status aside, Rhaegar expected to be king and the unborn child one of his heirs.

The N+A=J theory is much more complicated - tied back into the Tourney at Harenhall. If Ned and Ashara got together then, and then she killed herself after Ned returned Dawn to Starfall, unable to cope with the fact that her bastard's father had killed her brother. Ned then took the child to raise, without revealing his mother's name, to protect her family honor. Ironically, Ned has (relatively) clean hands at this point, because the fling at the tourney would have happened when Brandon was still alive and betrothed to Cat (sorry had Lyanna on the brain - along with Aerys - the most significant character in the books that was dead before the events). Timeline, I'm not sure Jon could have been passed off as a young enough age - unless he was just much smaller than Robb.

As to why I think R+L=J is much more plausible - why conceal the boy's parentage if he is the love child of Stark and Dayne? He's already illegitimate and Ned already takes the hit for fathering a bastard. No. It makes sense that if it is revealed that Jon is actually a Targaryen, he'd be killed, period, particularly if Robert knew it was the child of Rhaegar and Lyanna (remember? That's what started the whole war of the usurper in the first place).

Now - the problem is going to be - who has the best argument to be king/queen?

Dany is a child of the mad king - the aunt of Young Griff/Aegon (if he actually is who we all think he is, and not an imposter) and Jon (if R+L=J). So, if females can rise with existing male heirs - then Dany is the queen (and she has 3 dragons). But the dragon has three heads, right?

Are the 3 heads, Dany, Aegon and Jon Snow Stark Targaryen?

We do not all think Aegon is legit.

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My only problem with the theory is that I think Tywin would have almost certainly figured it out and would have found a way to sneak an assassin up to Winterfell to kill Jon.

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A. Jon doesn't have the Targaryean "look" (which may also point away from him actually being Rhaegar's son)

B. Only Ned and Howland Reed survived the battle - there was no one left alive to even tell of a live born child.

C. More reason for Ned to concoct a story to make the child his.

D. Without the look and with Ned's support of Robert as King (and, therefore Tywin's grandchildren as royal heirs) - Tywin may have decided to let sleeping wolves lie.

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I also think that Varys has figured it out

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Maybe, heck probably, but he is pro Targaryean - if something doesn't work out with Dany or Young Griff, Jon is his "Targaryean" in the hole.