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great read on the sixers & tanking
Posted on 3/3/15 at 10:47 am
Posted on 3/3/15 at 10:47 am
quote:
The Sixers’ plan is stupid because it assumes that there’s a smart way to land a championship nucleus. There really isn’t. Cleveland fell arse-backward into LeBron this summer. Seattle landed Durant because Portland’s doctors guessed wrong on Greg Oden. The Wolves landed Wiggins because Kevin Love wanted out of town. The Pelicans bottomed out and landed Davis only because David Stern vetoed a Chris Paul trade that would’ve made them more competitive. The NBA is anarchy. Hinkie should know this from experience.
In that same Paul trade, Hinkie’s former team, Houston, was set to land Pau Gasol, at which point it would have also maxed out the salary cap to sign Nene. Those decisions would cost the Rockets a shot at Harden, and David Stern is the only reason it never happened. Was that included in the PowerPoint presentation to Sixers executives?
The point isn’t that Hinkie got lucky, it’s that every great team has to get lucky. Sometimes it’s stumbling into a superstar at the perfect moment; other times it’s landing the top pick in the perfect draft. You can’t plan your way into getting struck by lightning — and that’s really what the Sixers are trying to do. It’s not particularly clever, and it’s not even a little bit complicated. Sam Hinkie is the GM who’s out there in the rain, holding a giant metal pole in the air. Every new lottery pick is another pole for him to wave at the sky.
When it’s over, he might look like a genius, or he might look like a sad man who spent three or four years standing in a storm with a bunch of poles in the air. You might say this whole process depends on the outcome.
LINK
i know our roster is flawed, but it is progress.
can anyone really say the 76ers are "in progress"?
2011-12 21 wins
2012-13 27 wins
2013-14 34 wins
2014-15 on pace for 45- 48 wins
playoffs or not, that is progress
7
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:03 am to cgrand
quote:
can anyone really say the 76ers are "in progress"?
When you phrase it like that, no. Even if they draft Okafor this summer, they'll still suck next year. They aren't going to keep losing 65 games a season, though.
In two, three years when the talent is starting to develop, they will still have a lot of space to sign players. They can go out and overpay a few veterans to complement a young squad that has been together for a few years. Then those extra first round draft picks in 2018, 2020 (don't know the exact years, but you get the point) really start to boost your bench/overall roster.
If they get that far down the line and actually have hit it big in the draft, they have all of their future assets to trade. That alone is valuable.
I doubt the Sixers plan to use all of the draft picks they have been collecting. They're waiting to find a good to great player in the draft, surround him with more young and cheap talent, and start trading assets/signing veterans with all of that cap space.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:18 am to Spitting Venom
I get what they are trying to do, but I still think it's stupid and would hate to be a 76ers fan. When do they know if the plan is working or not? 3 years, 5 years, 10 years?
ETA: instead of going to work and attempting to work their way up the ladder, they are staying at home and buying lottery tickets.
ETA: instead of going to work and attempting to work their way up the ladder, they are staying at home and buying lottery tickets.
This post was edited on 3/3/15 at 11:20 am
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:20 am to cgrand
That is a really stupid article. The Cavs drafted LeBron because they sucked and got the 1st pick and he got them to the Finals.
Seattle drafted Durant because they sucked enough to get the 2nd pick and he got them to the Finals.
The Wolves got Wiggins because they had Kevin Love as a trade chip.
The Pelicans drafted Davis because they sucked enough to get the #1 pick.
The Rockets got Harden because they traded away all of their best players for picks which they used to trade for James Harden. They had assets.
And that's what Hinkie is doing. Collecting assets and getting top 3 draft picks. In every scenario above, the GM either drafted a superstar high in the draft or had assets to trade for a star. Hinkie has both.
Seattle drafted Durant because they sucked enough to get the 2nd pick and he got them to the Finals.
The Wolves got Wiggins because they had Kevin Love as a trade chip.
The Pelicans drafted Davis because they sucked enough to get the #1 pick.
The Rockets got Harden because they traded away all of their best players for picks which they used to trade for James Harden. They had assets.
And that's what Hinkie is doing. Collecting assets and getting top 3 draft picks. In every scenario above, the GM either drafted a superstar high in the draft or had assets to trade for a star. Hinkie has both.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:26 am to PrimeTime Money
quote:
The Pelicans drafted Davis because they sucked enough to get the #1 pick.
That's right, they sucked enough, but not too much. 25% odds at #1 means there's a 75% chance someone else gets it. I get hitting the reset button, but people pay real money to see these teams, so tanking until you get a superstar is bad business. I don't think they should be getting revenue share/tax money with the harm they're causing fans.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:31 am to TigerinATL
Certain executives can crunch the numbers and figure out whether they think it's bad for business.
But if we're talking strictly about building a basketball team, the Sixers are putting themselves in great position to build a strong roster for the future.
But if we're talking strictly about building a basketball team, the Sixers are putting themselves in great position to build a strong roster for the future.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:36 am to cgrand
quote:
Sam Hinkie is the GM who’s out there in the rain, holding a giant metal pole in the air. Every new lottery pick is another pole for him to wave at the sky.
I just love this analogy
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:37 am to PrimeTime Money
quote:
Certain executives can crunch the numbers and figure out whether they think it's bad for business.
Philly travels, 29 other fan bases have to pay to see their shite show. They wanted to change the lottery rules so many owners were upset about it. I don't think the lottery system is that broken. What they should have done is what I mentioned, changed the revenue sharing rules. You get cut off after a certain number of years in the the bottom 5. If you want an extended tank that's on you and other teams shouldn't subsidize that.
This post was edited on 3/3/15 at 11:38 am
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:41 am to PrimeTime Money
The point is there are a ton of teams in similar situations to the ones you just mentioned who didn't get that superstar or that trade, and we're just terrible for no reason. Not to mention tanking as vociferously as the Sixers are isn't neccesary. The Celtics are in a great position and have never intentionally tanked. The rockets and suns never tanked.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:42 am to TigerinATL
There is always going to be a worst team in the league who is terrible and fans of other teams don't care to see play.
Changing the rules like you suggest isn't going to change anything.
Changing the rules like you suggest isn't going to change anything.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:44 am to TigerinATL
quote:
That's right, they sucked enough, but not too much. 25% odds at #1 means there's a 75% chance someone else gets it. I get hitting the reset button, but people pay real money to see these teams, so tanking until you get a superstar is bad business. I don't think they should be getting revenue share/tax money with the harm they're causing fans.
Agreed, but that's not what the article says. Or at least what was posted of it. It made it seem like tanking is pointless because draft picks end up being a crapshoot, which just isn't the case.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:47 am to tigerfan88
Just because some teams don't tank doesn't mean tanking doesn't work.
It's much more difficult to build a team while being mediocre.
And the Rockets were going to tank. They stumbled upon James Harden days before the first game of the season and the team ended up being pretty good.
But they were projected to be dead last in the West before the Harden trade.
It's much more difficult to build a team while being mediocre.
And the Rockets were going to tank. They stumbled upon James Harden days before the first game of the season and the team ended up being pretty good.
But they were projected to be dead last in the West before the Harden trade.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:48 am to TheSexecutioner
You don't think draft picks are a crapshoot?
Posted on 3/3/15 at 11:54 am to quail man
The top 10-15 players in the draft are much more likely to pan out to be good players compared to the rest of the draft.
Of the top 15, maybe 7 or 8 pan out to be good to great NBA players. That is a much higher chance than drafting later.
So it is a crap shoot in terms of which picks pan out and which don't, but your odds of a draft pick panning out are much higher if you have a high draft pick.
Of the top 15, maybe 7 or 8 pan out to be good to great NBA players. That is a much higher chance than drafting later.
So it is a crap shoot in terms of which picks pan out and which don't, but your odds of a draft pick panning out are much higher if you have a high draft pick.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 12:02 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
Certain executives can crunch the numbers and figure out whether they think it's bad for business.
But if we're talking strictly about building a basketball team, the Sixers are putting themselves in great position to build a strong roster for the future.
This is a very unique situation, because he is the first to go to such extremes. I think he's going to dictate whether or not this is acceptable for other teams in the future based on his success. Fanbases will not be as likely to forgive the teams for putting them through years of rebuild mode if Hinkie fails.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 12:15 pm to PrimeTime Money
quote:
And that's what Hinkie is doing. Collecting assets and getting top 3 draft picks. In every scenario above, the GM either drafted a superstar high in the draft or had assets to trade for a star. Hinkie has both.
but thus far the OUTCOME is not successful, which is the point of the article. they are no closer to greatness than they were 2 years ago, and in fact have realized nothing from the picks they have already made
the point is...luck plays a huge role in rebuilding this way, and engineering a process that relies so heavily on chance is not ideal. the outcome matters as much as the process
Posted on 3/3/15 at 12:39 pm to cgrand
quote:
the point is...luck plays a huge role in rebuilding this way, and engineering a process that relies so heavily on chance is not ideal. the outcome matters as much as the process
Luck does matter, you're right. But while Philly may not hit on the next LeBron/Durant/Davis, I don't think that's necessary for them to show results from their method. With three or four years of several top 10 draft picks, one or more of them will turn into decent NBA players. Whether they are role players, fringe all-stars, or superstars, they will have a few guys that can play ball, a lot of cap space to sign veterans, and a lot of assets to trade.
Worst case, Noel/Saric/Embiid/2015 pick turn into role players. With all of the space and future picks, Philly can build a decent team around that group. That may be a failure considering that Philly willingly took three years off, but that's worst case. They are taking a risk, but if they don't strike gold, they will still have an opportunity to make a few moves and become a fringe playoff team.
I do agree that it's not right to purposely suck in order to get better. Like ATL said, it's not right to make the other 29 teams suffer, since fans of other teams pay for those tickets when the 76ers aren't at home.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 12:40 pm to cgrand
Yes, luck plays the biggest factor in landing in NBA superstar. And Philly is increasing their chances of getting lucky by stockpiling assets. It may or may not work out,but mathematically and logically it's a smart move. Plus they've been able to sell to their fan base this strategy, which keeps expectations low and gives the team something to embrace that is easier to enjoy than mediocrity.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 12:49 pm to cgrand
I agree, they should give Noel back.
Posted on 3/3/15 at 1:08 pm to cgrand
This is only the second year of tanking. It hasn't even been 2 years. They've only had ONE draft.
People act like this has been going on for several years.
People act like this has been going on for several years.
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