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LINE/LNCO - Anyone with an opinion?

Posted on 1/9/15 at 1:08 pm
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 1/9/15 at 1:08 pm
These guys are wel hedged, but the worry is about what they will look like if oil stays low, from my understanding. Assuming I believe that oil will rebound, why should I not own this stock?

ETA: I know this seemingly goes against all of my yield pig soap box speeches. The difference is that Im interested based on valuation, not solely because of yield.

Also, please move to the money talk.
This post was edited on 1/9/15 at 1:28 pm
Posted by Sheep
Neither here nor there
Member since Jun 2007
19493 posts
Posted on 1/9/15 at 1:08 pm to
Tree fiddy
Posted by OnTheBrink
TN
Member since Mar 2012
5418 posts
Posted on 1/9/15 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

Assuming I believe that oil will rebound, why should I not own this stock?


With this statement, why should you not own any oil stock?

BTW, you still holding EXXI? Opinions on it? Sorry to hijack.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 1/9/15 at 1:29 pm to
I meant reasons specific to this company.

Yes I am still holding EXXI, unfortunately. I'll DCA down once oil finds a bottom. I'm only ~65% down.
Posted by OnTheBrink
TN
Member since Mar 2012
5418 posts
Posted on 1/9/15 at 1:32 pm to
quote:

I meant reasons specific to this company.


Yeah, cant answer that just making a general statement.

quote:

I'm only ~65% down.


Right there with you my friend.

Found any good short squeezes lately?
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2472 posts
Posted on 1/9/15 at 1:33 pm to
How beat down is their valuation relative to their more traditional c-corp peers? I think if LINE gets beat down enough they'd get bought out or merge with LNCO.
Posted by whodatigahbait
Uptown
Member since Oct 2007
1749 posts
Posted on 1/9/15 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

How beat down is their valuation relative to their more traditional c-corp peers? I think if LINE gets beat down enough they'd get bought out or merge with LNCO.


Why would they merge? they are the same company, LNCO is just an investor friendly share class that issues 1099s instead of K-1 whch LINE issues.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 1/9/15 at 1:56 pm to
Yes, LNCO is just a holding company that owns shares of LINE, so that you can own the company in a tax advantages account.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2472 posts
Posted on 1/9/15 at 2:14 pm to
I see, I thought LNCO was the GP with IDRs. Still, if the market unfairly punishes LINN on yield based valuation, wouldn't there be pressure to convert to a traditional c-corp? That's why I asked my first question.
This post was edited on 1/9/15 at 2:22 pm
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 1/9/15 at 2:30 pm to
I'm not sure I'm following you. Why would converting to a c corp help? They wouldn't increase their dividends any. Also, I'm not an expert on MLPs, but I thought the only covenant was minimum distributions, not max.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2472 posts
Posted on 1/12/15 at 11:30 am to
It's my understanding that MLP's are great for growing, stable cash flowing enterprises, which E&P companies certainly don't fit the mold for on the immediate horizon. I know LINN isn't an MLP, but it is modeled like one just without a GP or IDR's.
Posted by b-rab2
N. Louisiana
Member since Dec 2005
12576 posts
Posted on 1/12/15 at 12:47 pm to
yeah, I wouldn't own them right now.. but that the pot calling the kettle black, because I own them unfortunately.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2472 posts
Posted on 5/19/15 at 8:54 am to
Secondary offering pushing this down big today. Anyone buying?
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2472 posts
Posted on 6/26/15 at 9:22 am to
Flask, you still looking at Linn?
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 6/26/15 at 10:31 pm to
It's a pure bet on oil now. I think it's one of the better bets.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7918 posts
Posted on 6/27/15 at 7:15 am to
I see no issue with a short term oil play here. However, if the USD breaks out to new highs Id be hunting the exit. I dont see oil reaching 100+ in a USD bull market.
Posted by whodatigahbait
Uptown
Member since Oct 2007
1749 posts
Posted on 6/28/15 at 8:25 am to
quote:

It's a pure bet on oil now. I think it's one of the better bets.


You do realize that they are close to ~60% nat gas? Not really the best way to play a rally in oil considering their reserve base.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 6/28/15 at 4:43 pm to
I said oil meaning energy in general. That was wrong of me.
Posted by Jp1LSU
Fiji
Member since Oct 2005
2542 posts
Posted on 6/29/15 at 10:00 am to
I followed this one for a while about a year ago. I liked the real estate they have in Texas. It was trading around $29 then.

What makes this one attractive now? A name I've bought (and sold, but I'm currently holding) is CPE. It has some of the same prime real estate, its not an MLP, and is undervalued IMO. Its out of Natchez, MS.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2472 posts
Posted on 7/8/15 at 11:29 am to
These JV arrangements they've finalized with GSO and Quantum are complicated, but appear to position LINN very well for the long-term.
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