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re: OFFICIAL Week 10 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 10/30/14 at 10:52 am to K9
Posted on 10/30/14 at 10:52 am to K9
quote:
Cincy only giving up 4.5
It is a "square" play with 94% of the public on it. That is the only thing scary about this matchup. I'm still kicking myself for not betting Cincy against SMU. That was the easiest game of the year.
Tulane has a piss poor special teams and offense. Cincy has some nice talent on the offensive side. Lay the points.
3
Posted on 10/30/14 at 11:13 am to Zipfer2022
quote:
I'm still kicking myself for not betting Cincy against SMU.
You and me both bro, you and me both.
So inevitably when I take them tonight in a chance to rectify my mistake they will crap the bed and I will suffer a double loss.
Gambling
Posted on 10/30/14 at 11:16 am to RandySavage
Somebody talk me out of taking FSU -3.5. I know Thursday night home dogs and all but FSU can't beat Louisville by 4 points?
Posted on 10/30/14 at 11:19 am to RandySavage
They can. Go for it.
Posted on 10/30/14 at 11:29 am to RandySavage
quote:
I know Thursday night home dogs and all but FSU can't beat Louisville by 4 points?
My issue is that I'm not high on FSU at all. They are overrated and I'm pretty sure they've only covered once this season and they barely covered it (@ home vs Wake).
If you like Ville, I think the value is all about sucked out. If you are backing Louisville @ +3, you essentially think they are going to win the game.
The sharps were on Louisville @ +6, 6.5, +7 for large dollar amounts. The public is on FSU in general, and a some sharp money was bought back on FSU when the number was in the 3 or 3.5 range.
I think the sharpest play would've been grabbing this game when it was 7 or 6 points - obviously that opportunity is gone. I will say that the difference between 3.5 and 6 points isn't that big of a deal in college football.
The intangibles seem fairly even - Ville's homefield will be raucous, but FSU knows this game is just about all that stands between them and the CFB playoff. FSU should be out to prove the doubters wrong as well.
I think both defenses will struggle in this game. FSU's defense is very average and Petrino has had 2 weeks to prepare. UL just got their #1 WR back from injury, too. On offense, Jameis is still an unstoppable force when the chips are down. I've stated previously that this will be by far Louisville's toughest test for their highly-ranked D.
My play is over the total (51).
Posted on 10/30/14 at 12:04 pm to Billy Mays
I have no bet on the TCU-WVU game but this is interesting:
Does this affect anyone's bet? Under a play?
quote:
MOSTLY CLOUDY, 60% CHANCE SNOWSHOWERS. NORTHWEST WIND 15-25, GUSTY. GAME TEMP 37, RH 79% WIND CHILL 27 (SNOWFALL UP TO 1 INCH)
Does this affect anyone's bet? Under a play?
Posted on 10/30/14 at 12:06 pm to goldennugget
quote:
Does this affect anyone's bet? Under a play?
I definitely wouldn't be on the over in light of that weather forecast...
Posted on 10/30/14 at 12:41 pm to Zipfer2022
Tulane at home coming off of a bye, getting their starting QB back. Defense has been playing a lot better as well.
Posted on 10/30/14 at 12:52 pm to D011ahbi11
Jumping on the Louisville Thursday Night Home Dog vs Ranked Team bandwagon!
Posted on 10/30/14 at 1:01 pm to SprintFun
I will be as well. Here is my list of leans so far. Still trying to weed through.
Army
Navy
Florida
Illini
Tx St
Maryland
Arky
Stanford
Kentucky
Miami
Temple
Army
Navy
Florida
Illini
Tx St
Maryland
Arky
Stanford
Kentucky
Miami
Temple
Posted on 10/30/14 at 1:01 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
I definitely wouldn't be on the over in light of that weather forecast...
Doesnt help its already a super inflated number
Posted on 10/30/14 at 1:11 pm to D011ahbi11
quote:
Tulane at home
Oh, man I'm sure Cincy will piss themselves when they see the raucous Yulmann Stadium at full throat.
quote:
Tulane getting their starting QB back
A true freshman who just graduated from Jesuit and has more interceptions than TDs.
Posted on 10/30/14 at 1:11 pm to blades8088
quote:
Doesnt help its already a super inflated number
TCU did score 82 last week. WVU's defense is much improved but TCU is on another level right now.
Posted on 10/30/14 at 1:18 pm to Zipfer2022
Tulane has been pretty good at home the past two seasons. 7-2 to be exact, Lee is inconsistent but he's looked good at times. Cincy is awful on defense.
Posted on 10/30/14 at 1:22 pm to Zipfer2022
Cinci steam coming in - 6.5 now.
Posted on 10/30/14 at 1:31 pm to Zipfer2022
quote:
That was the easiest game of the year
But it was a square play.
Posted on 10/30/14 at 1:32 pm to SystemsGo
Guess I'm on Louisville. Not happy about it though
Posted on 10/30/14 at 1:39 pm to IceColdBeer
I took Louisville +4.5
And I bet it big. I think they win outright.
Bad bet?
-Thursday night home underdog
-great defense
-Bobby Petrino with 2 weeks to prepare
-get #1 WR back
-Will be LOUD
It just has so much going for the upset. Plus, FSU has just looked average to me this year.
And I bet it big. I think they win outright.
Bad bet?
-Thursday night home underdog
-great defense
-Bobby Petrino with 2 weeks to prepare
-get #1 WR back
-Will be LOUD
It just has so much going for the upset. Plus, FSU has just looked average to me this year.
This post was edited on 10/30/14 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 10/30/14 at 1:40 pm to tween the hedges
quote:
Guess I'm on Louisville. Not happy about it though
Tomorrow morning this will either be a "frick yea I backed Louisville" moment or a "what in the frick was I thinking?" moment.
Posted on 10/30/14 at 1:47 pm to SystemsGo
quote:
But it was a square play.
Square plays hit more often in CFB than other sports. Just got to pick the right spots. Tonight I would be amazed if the sharps don't clean up with those Louisville 7's.
But sharps were heavy on Texas Tech and Wash St last week. "Squares" loved TCU and Zona. Did you see how those games turned out?
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