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re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 10/3/14 at 11:13 am to NC_Tigah
Posted on 10/3/14 at 11:13 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Any suggestions as to how to best make money off of this? Short the ruble?
LINK
This is a short ETF amusingly referred to as "Russia Bear." If you think Russia's economy is about to skip the tracks entirely it might not hurt to speculate here a bit.
This post was edited on 10/3/14 at 11:15 am
1
Posted on 10/3/14 at 12:00 pm to LSURussian
Admittedly Mikhail Khordorkovsky is not exactly unbiased when it comes to Volodya Putin, but his take on what might happen under Putin is interesting and a bit scary, too.
Bloomberg, Oct. 3, 2014
Bloomberg, Oct. 3, 2014
quote:
Khodorkovsky Sees 1917-Like Crisis Nearing Under Putin
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the one-time oil tycoon who spent a decade in President Vladimir Putin’s prisons, said Russia is nearing an economic crisis that could fuel an uprising similar to the country’s 1917 revolution.
“I fear that Putin is going to bring the country to a crisis much more quickly than many would like,” Khodorkovsky, 51, said in an interview with Charlie Rose in New York. Russia could end up seeing “a repeat of 1917 when a person brings the country to an economic crisis, and we are certainly moving right in that direction.”
Deteriorating economic conditions may spark the sort of discontent that helped put an end to Russia’s Czarist autocracy a century ago, he said, referring to the turmoil that swept the Bolsheviks into power under Vladimir Lenin and led to the creation of the Soviet Union.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 2:08 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, ..........said Russia is nearing an economic crisis that could fuel an uprising similar to the country’s 1917 revolution
I don't think they are anywhere remotely near 1917 or 1991 for that matter. 1998 was bad, but a weak government survived. Mass uprising leading to anything like regime change seems unlikely. What could be possible is dissension/opportunism in siloviki inner circles that could result in a palace coup, but that is a long shot.
Posted on 10/3/14 at 2:16 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:Short the expensive vodka stocks and buy up the cheap ones.... although I am guessing that all Russian vodka will get cheaper, so maybe invest in some distributors.
Any suggestions as to how to best make money off of this? Short the ruble?
Anyone know of any publicly traded Russian mail order bride companies?
Posted on 10/3/14 at 7:28 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Six months is probably a stretch on my part. Probably more like 6 months to a year from now. Is that better?
It's more plausible, yes, but I don't really buy into it. What liquidity do they have on hand presently and what are there future liquidity prospects? Are you arguing for more of a "strategic" default - as in pure, gold ol' fashioned Putin realpolitik? Or are you arguing they simply cannot pay the bills so they don't? IMO, the former is a lot more credible.
Posted on 10/8/14 at 7:00 pm to LSURussian
The Russian government was only able to sell 45% of the new debt it tried to issue today.
LINK
quote:
Appetite for ruble debt, meanwhile, is dwindling, with the government selling 4.5 billion rubles ($112 million) of bonds due in August 2023 today as yields climbed 26 basis points from a sale two weeks ago. It offered 10 billion rubles.
LINK
Posted on 10/8/14 at 8:14 pm to LSURussian
Hope you know more about russian economics than you do baseball players' draft grades
This post was edited on 10/8/14 at 8:15 pm
Posted on 10/10/14 at 2:26 pm to LSURussian
Update on 10/10/14:
quote:LINK
MOSCOW, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Russia's rouble plunged again on Friday, and traders said the central bank intervened heavily to slow its slide, as oil prices dropped and Russian companies locked out of international capital markets drove demand for dollars.
Sanctions over Ukraine mean dollars and euros are in short supply, because major Russian firms are shut out of Western capital markets but still need foreign currency to service their overseas debts. Russian companies and banks have some $50 billion in external debt repayments due in the fourth quarter, according to the central bank.
The rouble has lost around 18 percent against the dollar this year, and the central bank has spent more than $40 billion in interventions, the bulk of which came in March when the Ukraine crisis escalated.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 2:40 pm to Big Scrub TX
The only remaining pillar of Russia's economy is oil. at what point does the U.S. get the Saudis/OPEC to open up the spigots.
Or is that already happening?
Or is that already happening?
This post was edited on 10/10/14 at 2:41 pm
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:10 pm to Asgard Device
quote:The price of oil has dropped almost $20/barrel (19%) in three months at the same time sanctions have been placed on Russia's oil sector.
Or is that already happening?
Something is happening to oil supply.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 3:31 pm to LSURussian
No apology necessary to those that called me a dumbass a month ago when I said just flood the market with oil lowering the price and this would happen.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 4:32 pm to bamarep
So the "marathon" of sanctions may be paying dividends.
If this happens, can we get all the asshats who spouted: "Obamas playing checkers while Putins playing chess" and "Putin gives zero fricks" to come in here and take their medicine?!?
Although as someone pointed out it remains to be seen just how far Putin is willing to go to keep the enemy of the West as the distraction.
If this happens, can we get all the asshats who spouted: "Obamas playing checkers while Putins playing chess" and "Putin gives zero fricks" to come in here and take their medicine?!?
Although as someone pointed out it remains to be seen just how far Putin is willing to go to keep the enemy of the West as the distraction.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 4:46 pm to bamarep
quote:Has the market been flooded with oil? Or is the driving/vacation season over and the heating oil season has not begun yet? Or is it the result of the manufacturing slowdown in Europe and China which is suppressing demand for oil?
No apology necessary to those that called me a dumbass a month ago when I said just flood the market with oil lowering the price
This post was edited on 10/10/14 at 4:51 pm
Posted on 10/10/14 at 4:57 pm to BobBoucher
So if Russia's economy collapses will they still be the biggest threat to modern America? Or was Sarah Palin wrongly praised as some sort of foreign policy savant on this board a few months ago?
Posted on 10/10/14 at 5:16 pm to TideCPA
quote:
So if Russia's economy collapses will they still be the biggest threat to modern America? Or was Sarah Palin wrongly praised as some sort of foreign policy savant on this board a few months ago?
That is subject to a variety of opinions. I personally don't think there is a threat to modern America right now other than globalization and immigration. Nothing else really threatens to change our way of life.
Eastern Europe? Sure. If Sarah Palin had said Putin was a threat there she would have nailed it.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 5:24 pm to LSURussian
How long before the common people in Russia feel the pain?
Public sentiment is something Vlad Putin cares more about than he lets on.
Public sentiment is something Vlad Putin cares more about than he lets on.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 5:49 pm to TOKEN
quote:
How long before the common people in Russia feel the pain?
It's almost impossible to know because Putin's mafia controls all the media. So short of mass scale demonstrations in the streets or even riots, whatever opposition there is will remain invisible and unmeasureable.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 6:06 pm to LSURussian
Russian news is touting the Eurasian Union treaty and how Eastern Ukrainians are suffering.
Any pain they feel will be blamed on the West and will strengthen resolve.
Any pain they feel will be blamed on the West and will strengthen resolve.
Posted on 10/10/14 at 7:18 pm to LSURussian
quote:
The price of oil has dropped almost $20/barrel (19%) in three months at the same time sanctions have been placed on Russia's oil sector.
Something is happening to oil supply.
I noticed prices have fallen but wasnt sure if it was due to OPEC flooding the market to hurt the ruskies, or if it was just somethubg else.
Posted on 10/13/14 at 1:40 pm to LSURussian
The Central Bank of Russia admits it can't provide adequate support the ruble's value.
The ruble dropped below the value of 2.5 U.S. cents/ruble on Monday.
quote:
The Russian Central Bank Admits Defeat
Russian Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina has admitted that if currency markets continue to turn against the ruble the bank "won’t be able to restrain them."
Despite the central bank spending $6 billion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves in only 10 days to prop up the value of the ruble, it continued its slide against the dollar on Monday.
The admission that central bank is unable to defend a fixed exchange rate for the ruble against heavy selling of the currency by international investors demonstrates the extent of the country's problems as it battles falling oil prices and a weakening economy.
The ruble dropped below the value of 2.5 U.S. cents/ruble on Monday.
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