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re: Update pg 23: Russia,IMO, will default on its sovereign debt within six months
Posted on 9/29/14 at 2:26 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 9/29/14 at 2:26 pm to LSURussian
quote:
I doubt it. He would just blame the US and the West for it and he'd be partially correct.
Russians love to hate foreigners.
They love conspiracies and what ever state run media will them them to believe.
Where is that one dude who was posting all summer about the Russian economy on the rise rabble rabble rabble.
0
Posted on 9/29/14 at 2:27 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Too many foreign banks loaned too much money to Russian banks and to the Russian government. Those foreign institutions knew that Russia would never be able to pay back what was owed. The foreigners did it in order to destroy Russia's economy.
See how they think?
I think that is a direct Barney Frank quote in regards to the 08' subprime mortgage crisis in reference to subprime borrowers.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 2:31 pm to LSURussian
quote:Any suggestions as to how to best make money off of this? Short the ruble?
Russia, IMO, will default on its sovereign debt (again) within six months
The last time Russia defaulted on its debt was in 1998.
The Russian government halted all government bond sales since July and it just held its first bond sale on Sept 24 since that time. The yields exceeded 9%, a full 100 basis points over the previous auction. The 9.37% rate compares to the US rate on similar term bonds of 2.55%.
The ruble has lost 9% of its value against the US dollar since the Crimea invasion and lost a full 1% today.
The Central Bank of Russia announced today it is considering intervening into the currency market to prop up the ruble's value. That is the last governmental measure available before a currency collapses, like the ruble did in 1998.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 2:35 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:I try to stay away from such pronouncements because people tend to blame others if their investments don't work out. I wouldn't know how to short the ruble anyway.
Any suggestions as to how to best make money off of this? Short the ruble?
ETA: I will say in times of financial turmoil, safe haven investments and currencies, like U.S. government securities and the U.S. dollar, tend to increase in value when people run to them and away from perceived 'riskier' investments.
This post was edited on 9/29/14 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 9/29/14 at 2:41 pm to LSURussian
quote:I'm going to blame you either way. Just so you'll know.
I try to stay away from such pronouncements because people tend to blame others
Posted on 9/29/14 at 2:43 pm to NC_Tigah
Fair enough. Just don't start any threads on the Help Board accusing me of stalking you by down voting all your posts.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 3:15 pm to LSURussian
Thanks Russian. I kind of figured that they were an indoctrinated and victimized people.
Not very "brushed up" on my Russian history, but was pretty sure their foreign policy boiled down to "it's their fault because they aren't Russians, and also because frick them".
Not very "brushed up" on my Russian history, but was pretty sure their foreign policy boiled down to "it's their fault because they aren't Russians, and also because frick them".
Posted on 9/29/14 at 3:18 pm to LSURussian
quote:
The ruble has lost 9% of its value against the US dollar since the Crimea invasion and lost a full 1% today.
good, Obama needs to keep the pressure on and not relax the sanctions.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 3:39 pm to LSURussian
How long did you live in Russia? What were you impressions of the Russian people?
Posted on 9/29/14 at 3:46 pm to Radiojones
Off and on I worked there for about 6 years from 1995 to 2001.
The Russian people are the most xenophobic people I've ever been around. But once they get to know you and realize you're there to assist them and not cheat them, they can't do enough for you. It's a Jekyl and Hyde personality syndrome. A complete transformation in personality.
As a people they are extremely racist. They refer to all darker complexioned people, such as Armenians and Italians, as the Russian equivalent of the "N" word.
The Russian people are the most xenophobic people I've ever been around. But once they get to know you and realize you're there to assist them and not cheat them, they can't do enough for you. It's a Jekyl and Hyde personality syndrome. A complete transformation in personality.
As a people they are extremely racist. They refer to all darker complexioned people, such as Armenians and Italians, as the Russian equivalent of the "N" word.
Posted on 9/29/14 at 3:51 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Those foreign institutions knew that Russia would never be able to pay back what was owed.
quote:
See how they think?
Sounds like the housing "crisis" here...
Posted on 10/1/14 at 2:25 pm to LSURussian
This just in to update the financial situation in Russia:
October 1, 2014, Bloomberg
quote:
The central bank is considering temporary action to curb capital outflows, which are forecast to reach as much as $120 billion this year, two officials with direct knowledge of the discussions have told Bloomberg News. Even temporary controls would be a humiliating turn of events for President Vladimir Putin, who has sought to develop Moscow as a financial hub.
Capital flight, which topped $74 billion during the first half, is part of a growing list of economic woes in Moscow.
October 1, 2014, Bloomberg
Posted on 10/1/14 at 2:37 pm to LSURussian
Interesting thread.
Posted on 10/2/14 at 1:53 pm to GumboPot
Thanks.
Here's today's update: As I predicted a couple of days ago in this thread, the Central Bank of Russia started buying rubles today with their reserve dollars in order to support the ruble's value. It didn't work.
Here's today's update: As I predicted a couple of days ago in this thread, the Central Bank of Russia started buying rubles today with their reserve dollars in order to support the ruble's value. It didn't work.
quote:LINK
The Bank of Russia intervened for the first time since May to stem the world’s worst currency slide, only to see the ruble extend losses after the central bank shut its market operations for the day.
The currency has lost 14 percent per dollar in the second half of 2014, the most among peers tracked by Bloomberg.
Posted on 10/2/14 at 2:01 pm to LSURussian
So, can we now say that "Obama beat Putin"?
Posted on 10/2/14 at 2:02 pm to mmcgrath
I think reality beat Putin.
Posted on 10/2/14 at 2:06 pm to mmcgrath
quote:Do you think Putin is beaten?
So, can we now say that "Obama beat Putin"?
Posted on 10/2/14 at 2:07 pm to LSURussian
What happened to Putin out witting Obama
Putin only has himself to blame
Putin only has himself to blame
Posted on 10/2/14 at 2:08 pm to StraightCashHomey21
quote:But imagine how much faster Putin would have screwed himself if Romney had won.
Putin only has himself to blame
Conservatives are so stupid.
Posted on 10/2/14 at 2:09 pm to Scruffy
quote:
I think reality beat Putin.
Russians don't live in reality
They live in what the Kremlin news tells them
This post was edited on 10/2/14 at 2:11 pm
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