Page 1
Page 1
Started By
Message

Would you agree with this "stock advice"?

Posted on 9/18/14 at 11:39 am
Posted by RidiculousHype
St. George, LA
Member since Sep 2007
10206 posts
Posted on 9/18/14 at 11:39 am
For the last couple of years I've tried to learn all I can about the stock market and make good decisions with my investments. I'm just starting, but here's what I "think" I've learned over that time. Tell me what you think.

1) Disregard the mass media financial advice. If Jim Cramer and CNBC are recommending a stock or sector, chances are big money is trying to sell you their shares, and a top is imminent. If Goldman Sachs is upgrading, run. If they're downgrading, I'm interested.

2) For your microcap spec plays, look for stocks with a float of less than 20 million shares with recent (within the last year) insider buying.

3) You want earnings winners. If a company beats estimates and gives optimistic guidance, that is a good start. Be careful about tax deferments and other shenanigans that can inflate the EPS number, however. If a company reports an annualized EPS that gives me a 10x multiple or less, and I think it's sustainable, I get very interested.

4) Look for clues in the conference calls and quarterly releases. Study the language used by the CEO. Compare it to the language used in previous releases. It's amazing how much you can learn by listening to and reading management commentary (some companies are more divulging than others).

5) Use weekly charts and simple moving averages. Daily and hourly charts might give you short-term clues, but weeklys are much more reliable. Monthly charts can also tell you a lot about long-term sentiment.

6) Price and volume are your two biggest concerns. Stick to the bread and butter. You want stocks that have big volume during an advance, then a nice and quiet, low-volume consolidation period. If a stock has a history of exploding off the 10-week moving average, I'm interested if it's settling back to the 10-week after a consolidation.

7) Beware "overhead supply". If a stock has been beaten down recently, there will be many bagholders looking to sell the minute they can "just get back to even". Instead, look for a stock with a good sideways base of several months - chances are the current holders aren't going anywhere.

8) Use the NASI summation index breadth indicator. On Stockcharts the symbol is $NASI. It's a useful measure of money flow into, and out of, the stock market. I use it to decide how much risk I'm willing to partake in.

9) Use tight mental stops/alerts. It is a battle of emotional fortitude and discipline. Don't watch every tick or you will go nuts. Instead, set alerts on your phone to notify you when your stock gets to your buy/sell point. If you submit a stop loss order, it can act as a magnet and stop you out every time.

10) Even having said #9, you still need to have tight mental stops in place in order to stick to your plan. One of the hardest things is to admit defeat. But you have to cut your losses or else you will have a portfolio full of stocks in the red as you stubbornly refuse to sell. It might seem like stop loss after stop loss, but you are minimizing your losses while scoring big on your wins. The idea is that even if 80% of your trades are small losses, the 20% wins should be huge if your research was sound.

11) Speaking of those big wins, you have to let your winners run, but that doesn't mean you can't sell part of your position if you feel you are up at a high-risk level. If your stock advances 20% in a day or two it might be a good idea to scale back your position and book some gains. Then let the rest run for you. It is a very unnatural feeling to not sell your entire position when your stock has a paper gain of several hundred or thousands of dollars. But letting at least part of your position "run" is where the big money is made.

I just realized what a wall of text this is. Feel free to hammer away or just pick 1 or 2 points to comment on
This post was edited on 9/18/14 at 11:42 am
Posted by OnTheBrink
TN
Member since Mar 2012
5418 posts
Posted on 9/18/14 at 11:46 am to
Buy and hold has worked good for me, so far anyways.
Posted by TIGERSby10
Central Lafourche
Member since Nov 2005
6941 posts
Posted on 9/18/14 at 12:43 pm to
If you can write that much about stocks, I think you should be giving advice, not taking it.

Do like everyone else: Throw money at it, close your eyes, and hope it works out.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
37110 posts
Posted on 9/18/14 at 1:49 pm to
Number 1 is the thing I talk to my clients about. I tell them, if you read about it in Money Magazine, it's either A) big money trying to get out or B) All the good money has already been had.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18946 posts
Posted on 9/18/14 at 7:35 pm to
Enjoyable read
Posted by matthew25
Member since Jun 2012
9425 posts
Posted on 9/18/14 at 11:28 pm to
I agree with the Cramer comment. I quit him a few years ago when his disingenuous comments were up on Youtube.

I bought Corning (GLW) on a Goldman Sachs recommendation. It has done well. I wish I had also bought Blackstone (BX) on their rec.

I like Hillary Kramer's comments.

You put together a good summary - Cliff Notes!
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7918 posts
Posted on 9/19/14 at 9:24 am to
If you take care of #10 (risk management) you are 50% of the way to being a successful trader/investor IMO.

I definitely agree on the monthly and weekly charts comment too. I use dailies as well. Hourly and shorter timeframe leads people astray
Posted by RidiculousHype
St. George, LA
Member since Sep 2007
10206 posts
Posted on 9/19/14 at 9:47 am to
Appreciate the feedback everyone. I definitely think the hardest part is that emotional discipline, which does not come naturally.

Any other big ideas that you guys have found useful? Anything you see on the OP that is misguided?
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 9/20/14 at 7:56 am to
Quite a comprehensive and good summary. my views below often contradict my actual actions. I"m not stating them as facts, just food for thought....

1) Disregard the mass media financial advice.

I disagree. If you're trading, herd mentality can run stocks up or down based on analyst coverage. I'm not saying follow it blindly, but it does affect stock prices.


3) You want earnings winners.

My biggest long term stock winner was one that held a p/e around 25-35 for probably 25 years. The 'market' had decided that 25 was 'normal' for the industrial company which was growing at a steady rate for the entire time. I don't think it's so much high or low p/e, but the p/e relative to what the 'market' has decided is appropriate.

4) Look for clues in the conference calls

can't be done. if management is competent, they will choose every word very carefully to promote their agenda. if you pick up a signal, it's probably the one they wanted you to pick up. if you can read through their b.s., they're probably not very good and you don't want to be there anyway

5) Use weekly charts and simple moving averages.

I don't believe in charts/technical. infinite political, economic, technological, and competitive variables have a much greater impact of future pricing than how the market felt last month or year


9) Use tight mental stops/alerts.

while valid to an extent, the stops/alerts can only be set with information available at that time. the world changes every minute, so stops set yesterday were only valid at that time. I think it's more important to stay flexible and change them as the environment changes.

10) Even having said #9, you still need to have tight mental stops in place in order to stick to your plan. The idea is that even if 80% of your trades are small losses, the 20% wins should be huge if your research was sound.

this is extremely tough to nail down. if the stock was a good company and buy at X, then it must be an even better buy at .8X, right? I rode AAPL all the way up, way down, and back up again because I 'knew' they would win in the time window I was investing for. If your stop losses are too tight, you're going to get our of some very good stocks too early.

11) Speaking of those big wins, you have to let your winners run

absolutely per above.

summary: I think the 'rules' for trading and investing are very, very different and often contradictory. Much of what you talk about above relates more to trading than investing in my view. If one is 'investing', all that really matters is the management, competitive advantage, financial status, and environment for that company. Everything else is only going to move the stock price within a nice, long term uptrend. If one is trading, none of those things are relevant, all that matters is what the market thinks about them at a particular time.

Investing is analyzing individual companies ability to grow and be profitable.

Trading is analyzing people's reactions to news and their emotions.

All this being said, I think your list is excellent and much better than mine which changes every day

good luck
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
7918 posts
Posted on 9/20/14 at 9:08 am to
quote:

I'm not saying follow it blindly, but it does affect stock prices.


Good point. You want to be aware of the news (a quick scan of Reuters and Yahoo Finance is what I do daily), but don't base trading/investing decisions on news or commentary.

quote:

I don't believe in charts/technical. infinite political, economic, technological, and competitive variables have a much greater impact of future pricing than how the market felt last month or year


IMO price is king. All of the political, economic, and technological variables drive the price. Following the price from technicals can give good clues. Is it foolproof? Absolutely not, that is where good risk management comes in.

quote:

I think the 'rules' for trading and investing are very, very different and often contradictory.


Couldn't agree more. Trading vs investing to me is a time frame issue. I put traders into three categories:

1. Day trader - multiple trades in a day, no overnight positions (I don't see how people make a living from this and don't have a heart attack).

2. Weeks to several months of holding a position- this is what I shoot for.

3. 1-2 year position - Difficult to hold for this long with any type of leverage, this is what I want to grow into.

Traders tend to use leverage where investors do not.

Investors tend to hold positions for years to decades. The great thing with investors is what is shown as a 1.5% dividend in present time is usually a much larger return for the long term investor. If one were to have bought a stock such as Home Depot in late 08 to early 09 they'd be making a 9 to 10% dividend.
This post was edited on 9/20/14 at 5:00 pm
Posted by eScott
Member since Oct 2008
11376 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 7:19 am to
Before you make a trade, have an exit plan. Think about how you're going to get out of the trade if it doesn't go your way with minimal to no loses. Don't make emotional decisions. Some days just watch the market if you don't see a good trade. No trade is better than a bad one. Don't try to trade like other traders, trust yourself and learn what works for you.

A great book to read is electronic day trader secrets. LINK
This post was edited on 9/22/14 at 7:31 am
Posted by Ole War Skule
North Shore
Member since Sep 2003
3409 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 7:21 am to
quote:

A great book to read is electronic day trader secrets. LINK


bad link
Posted by eScott
Member since Oct 2008
11376 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 7:34 am to
Fixed the link. I'm going to find my copy and read it again. Really worth it.

ETA: This is not a how to book. If you've been trading for a while, you'll probably like it more than someone just starting.
This post was edited on 9/22/14 at 7:43 am
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
123945 posts
Posted on 9/22/14 at 8:35 am to
quote:

1) Disregard the mass media financial advice. If Jim Cramer and CNBC are recommending a stock or sector, chances are big money is trying to sell you their shares, and a top is imminent. If Goldman Sachs is upgrading, run. If they're downgrading, I'm interested.
Depends on leading edge vs trailing edge timing of advice. Cramer is a mixed bag. GS . . . watchout. Like assessment of anything the media does, consider reliability in the aggregate.
quote:

2) For your microcap spec plays
Don't
quote:

3) You want earnings winners. If a company beats estimates and gives optimistic guidance, that is a good start.
Old adage = buy the rumor,sell the news. The market performs accordingly. Wait for the pullback.


Sounds like you're on it.
More value oriented than momentum investing strategy. Sound approach. FWIW, we've never used an automated stop loss, but also follow the market very closely. Likewise, close to 100% of our stock buys are limit order.
first pageprev pagePage 1 of 1Next pagelast page
refresh

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram