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Anemic Amazon: Wall Street Tires Of Jeff Bezos' Aversion To Profit

Posted on 4/25/14 at 1:38 pm
Posted by saintforlife1
Member since Jul 2012
1321 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 1:38 pm
quote:

Amazon.com AMZN -8.7% continues to be a sales machine, but when is it going to turn real profits?

In what initially seemed like a gangbuster first quarter earnings report, Amazon showed nearly $20 billion in revenue, beating the analyst consensus estimate as sales rose 23% from last year. The company also eked out a small net income improvement — to $108 million from $82 million.

But Amazon’s guidance scared investors. While net sales are expected to grow between 15% and 26% compared to 2013, Amazon admitted they expect a return to the red — with an estimated operating loss between $455 million and 55 million. In last year’s second quarter, the company posted a small $79 million operating income.

Amazon has long traded at a massive multiple of its near-nonexistent earnings, but Wall Street appears to be getting tired of billionaire founder and CEO Jeff Bezos’ aversion to profits. Analysts everywhere lowered their price estimates for Amazon on Friday, including Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan, RBC, Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo, SunTrust, and Citi.


LINK

AMZN down -32.11 (-9.52%) so far today. What is a good target to jump into the stock?
Posted by lighter345
Member since Jan 2009
11865 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 2:07 pm to
Also LINK

Even though I thought this was still essentially voluntary?
Posted by tigerpawl
Can't get there from here.
Member since Dec 2003
22320 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 2:11 pm to
Bezos dropped $2.6 Billion today. Think he's worried? Down to his last $23 Billion.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28709 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 2:40 pm to
At least they understand that it is an aversion to profits, and not an inability to make a profit.

quote:

What is a good target to jump into the stock?

If you believe in Bezos and the way he is running Amazon, then almost any price is a good price because you will be holding for life. As long as the growth rate is astronomical (20%+ for a company with revenue approaching 100B? That's insane.), why on earth would Amazon even think about slowing down on the investments? Why would anyone invest in a company, but not want that company to invest in itself and its future? Amazon has tons of room for growth, and if investors want to see Amazon turning big profits and paying dividends, then I think they will be disappointed for a couple more decades. I think those who hold for life will be very handsomely rewarded.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
33446 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 6:45 pm to
quote:

AMZN down -32.11 (-9.52%) so far today.


Sounds like they need a good stock split to make it more "accessible" to idiotic investors.
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 7:58 pm to
I just wonder when it will bottom out. I am looking to buy a few thousand
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24159 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 8:17 pm to
I'm glad Bezos has the forethought and wisdom to tell Wall Street to F*** OFF. The long-term view he takes is a breath of fresh air - it is one of the biggest issues I have with companies going public. The emphasis on hitting short-term numbers can skew the management's decision making.
Posted by southernelite
Dallas
Member since Sep 2009
53177 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 8:43 pm to
quote:

I'm glad Bezos has the forethought and wisdom to tell Wall Street to F*** OFF. The long-term view he takes is a breath of fresh air - it is one of the biggest issues I have with companies going public. The emphasis on hitting short-term numbers can skew the management's decision making.



If Warren Buffet was doing the same thing at Amazon, Wall Street would be sucking him off so hard right now.

Amazon is building a damn empire, they're going to be a force to be reckoned with.
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 8:53 pm to
quote:


If Warren Buffet was doing the same thing at Amazon, Wall Street would be sucking him off so hard right now.


Exactly. I am interested in the Alibaba IPO though as a comparison Amazon
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 9:09 pm to
It might have explosive growth, but the p/e ratio is just too much for me. I'm probably wrong, I should probably buy it and own it for the rest of my life, but still. Is anyone else disturbed by its present valuation? Because I can't get past it.
Posted by GenesChin
The Promise Land
Member since Feb 2012
37706 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 9:43 pm to
quote:

p/e ratio


But isn't the p/e artificially low due to the infrastructure reinvestment? If Amazon said today "We are happy with our business model and will just spend money on maintaining not growing" how much profit would they take in?



I mean just read this to see all the ridiculous new products they are coming out with that will add to future revenue growth.


AmazonPantry- Grocery delivery that may actually work

AmazonDash- Easily reorder items by scanning barcodes of items or use microphone to order items you can't scan

AmazonTV- looks to be a legit contender in instant streaming. Added HBO shows which is unreal since Netflix could never close that deal

AmazonPhone




Basically everything they do feeds back into their business model. Once you get sucked in you won't be able to leave. Huge reason why they still see growth in AmazonPrime despite raising cost
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 4/25/14 at 10:36 pm to
I don't think so. There p/e being artificially high that is. I'm concerned with their retail heavy model and their ratios. If they had long term debt of any significance, which they claim not to, at least not a great amount, I see no reason why they couldn't finance their growth from revenue, which presumably they are doing, and pay a dividend. And yet they don't.

That's just me. Something valued at over 500X earnings had better be growing a lot faster than this, especially a retail based, highly sensitive to consumer confidence sales model.

To me they are set up somewhat like Google. They'll need to buy competitors, and every thing that comes close to eating in to their market share.
This post was edited on 4/25/14 at 10:43 pm
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28709 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 12:01 am to
quote:

It might have explosive growth, but the p/e ratio is just too much for me.

What difference does a P/E make when Amazon pretty intentionally tries to keep E at $0?
quote:

Is anyone else disturbed by its present valuation? Because I can't get past it.

I don't think you're understanding how much investment is required to support a 20% growth rate in Amazon's world. They're not like Google or Facebook who can quickly deploy more servers and hire a few people and pull in some arbitrary increase in ad revenue. They're not even like Apple who can simply sell more expensive products, or just buy more capacity from their suppliers. For every doubling of revenue, Amazon actually needs to double their distribution floorspace (or invest in equipment/manpower capable of moving product through their facilities faster), and they have to do it years before it's needed.

Amazon is bringing the tech mindset about growth into Wal-Mart's world, and they are in uncharted territory. Amazon is on pace to match Wal-Mart's revenue in about 10 years... do you have any idea how amazing that is? And if the growth is still there, Amazon still won't be turning profits, and honestly by then I don't think anyone will care anymore. When (if?) the time comes for Amazon's growth to slow, then they will settle into Wal-Mart type earnings and ratios and all will seem right with the world. Amazon's gross profit margins are actually better than Wal-Mart's, and Amazon makes more per employee. Not to mention Amazon is into much more profitable ventures than retail. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Amazon get more into shipping, as well.

It takes a lot to build an empire. Seems to me that people crying for profits and dividends are asking them to fail.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 10:14 am to
It's not for me. I could quite possibly be wrong, but I don't like the business model.

Ya know, most everyone worships Warren Buffet also. If you drill down in to that model of buy and hold, at some point almost everyone holding will need a dividend.

BRK.A and/or B aren't for everyone either. I like how people brag about owning one share of A. I question whether they can afford it long term.

Someone eluded above to how much investment is required to support a 20% growth rate in Amazon's world. This is a very good question that I know the answer to. I beleive the person who posted the question might be surprised by the answer.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28709 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 2:38 pm to
quote:

Someone eluded above to how much investment is required to support a 20% growth rate in Amazon's world. This is a very good question that I know the answer to. I beleive the person who posted the question might be surprised by the answer.

That was me. Surprise me.
Posted by FootballNostradamus
Member since Nov 2009
20509 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

Sounds like they need a good stock split to make it more "accessible" to idiotic investors.


Posted by FootballNostradamus
Member since Nov 2009
20509 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 7:49 pm to
quote:

It might have explosive growth, but the p/e ratio is just too much for me. I'm probably wrong, I should probably buy it and own it for the rest of my life, but still. Is anyone else disturbed by its present valuation? Because I can't get past it.


I really don't think you can do your best Benjamin Graham impression and evaluate Amazon in the traditional P/E Ratio metrics. As some have said, how do you value a company that is intentionally not turning a profit?

I have cooled on Amazon some in the recent months, but I'm not close to bailing on them. It's going to be a long, frustrating journey, but I think it will pay-off in the end. Like someone said, this is almost a 10 year minimum hold stock which is hard for some people to percieve and accept, but if you can I think it will be worth it.

I also think the ever-increasing connectivity of the global economy only helps Amazon. Having lived internationally I know everyone is begging for it to continue to grow in their countries. It is beginning to expand into Europe, and having lived in Australia it's still (in most cases) cheaper to buy things off Amazon and have them shipped here.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80781 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 9:21 pm to
Just curious- how often and what is a typical amount for dividends amazon pays out per share?
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
28709 posts
Posted on 4/26/14 at 11:03 pm to
quote:

Just curious- how often and what is a typical amount for dividends amazon pays out per share?
Amazon doesn't pay dividends, and probably won't for at least a decade if I had to guess.
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
80781 posts
Posted on 4/27/14 at 8:25 am to
I didn't know...I don't invest in individual stocks yet
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