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Tanking Produces Very Mixed Results
Posted on 3/28/14 at 8:30 am
Posted on 3/28/14 at 8:30 am
It's an Insider article by Pelton, so I guess there's no use in linking it. It discusses the Sixers and their prospects using current data for the NBA as a whole. It is relevant to the Pelicans, as you'll see.
Excerpts (not the entire thing, mods):
History shows teams as bad as Philly take even longer just to reach .500
Last week, I showed how the draft, salary cap and other factors tend to cause teams to win in cycles. That data can be taken a step further into year-by-year winning percentages for teams that start out with various numbers of wins (or equivalent winning percentages, to account for post-lockout schedules). Looking at all seasons under the current lottery format, here's how that looks:
Evolution of Teams
Wins Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10
60+ .765 .657 .609 .573 .558 .523 .504 .507 .530 .571
55-59 .694 .643 .614 .574 .565 .540 .529 .543 .526 .502
50-54 .631 .595 .572 .548 .527 .527 .510 .482 .476 .507
45-49 .573 .545 .516 .521 .477 .479 .502 .483 .488 .476
40-44 .514 .507 .507 .487 .502 .497 .508 .507 .495 .497
35-39 .448 .456 .432 .437 .476 .504 .475 .492 .533 .526
30-34 .394 .400 .455 .470 .485 .484 .500 .508 .518 .536
25-29 .330 .407 .449 .478 .464 .459 .477 .507 .538 .500
20-24 .270 .364 .419 .500 .539 .550 .517 .493 .527 .523
<19 .194 .326 .371 .411 .433 .463 .493 .507 .437 .447
By the fifth year, four years after the original season, these numbers have mostly evened up because of the pull of parity on both extremes. But the worst of the worst teams tend to lag behind. It takes them until the eighth season -- seven years later -- to finally reach .500 as a group.
By these measures, teams that start out winning 20-24 games are as successful over the next decade as teams that start with records closer to .500.
Likelihood of Success
Wins %55 Wins Yrs >.500 Yrs >55
60+ 80 6.2 3.0
55-59 78 6.0 2.7
50-54 72 5.4 1.9
45-49 70 4.6 1.0
40-44 54 4.8 1.1
35-39 40 4.2 1.0
30-34 42 4.3 1.0
25-29 37 4.4 0.8
20-24 39 4.2 1.1
<19 15 2.9 0.3
The likelihood of reaching contention increases the better the team is originally, since less improvement is required. But because those forays into contention tend to be shorter than they are for teams that rebuild with young talent, the teams that start out winning 20-24 games average as many seasons at a 55-win level as any other group that starts with fewer than 50 wins.
While it could be nothing more than noise, 20-24 wins might represent a "sweet spot" in the standings where teams benefit from the chance to win the lottery with enough talent in place to build around a player drafted with a top pick.
For the most part, history shows that where a team starts in the standings doesn't make an enormous difference in where they end up years later. It appears execution is more important than strategy when it comes to building a championship contender. The exception is the teams that begin at the very bottom. And that's where Hinkie's plan could find trouble.
Starting from the bottom
The teams that have gone from the Drake zone to contention in the past two decades have almost uniformly struck gold in the draft. The five teams that have gotten there within six years in that span drafted Allen Iverson (1996 76ers), LeBron James (2003 Cavaliers), Chris Paul (2005 Hornets) and Blake Griffin (2009 Clippers). The lone exception, the 2008 Heat (Michael Beasley) already had a superstar on the roster in Dwyane Wade. That matches up with what Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight found on Basketball Prospectus in 2012: Getting a star player trumps everything else in building a contender.
IMO, the relevance to the Pelicans is that we've already struck gold a second time with AD. Now we have to build, and we may not be that far away.
The question marks? EG's contract and Monty improving as an in game coach.
Excerpts (not the entire thing, mods):
History shows teams as bad as Philly take even longer just to reach .500
Last week, I showed how the draft, salary cap and other factors tend to cause teams to win in cycles. That data can be taken a step further into year-by-year winning percentages for teams that start out with various numbers of wins (or equivalent winning percentages, to account for post-lockout schedules). Looking at all seasons under the current lottery format, here's how that looks:
Evolution of Teams
Wins Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10
60+ .765 .657 .609 .573 .558 .523 .504 .507 .530 .571
55-59 .694 .643 .614 .574 .565 .540 .529 .543 .526 .502
50-54 .631 .595 .572 .548 .527 .527 .510 .482 .476 .507
45-49 .573 .545 .516 .521 .477 .479 .502 .483 .488 .476
40-44 .514 .507 .507 .487 .502 .497 .508 .507 .495 .497
35-39 .448 .456 .432 .437 .476 .504 .475 .492 .533 .526
30-34 .394 .400 .455 .470 .485 .484 .500 .508 .518 .536
25-29 .330 .407 .449 .478 .464 .459 .477 .507 .538 .500
20-24 .270 .364 .419 .500 .539 .550 .517 .493 .527 .523
<19 .194 .326 .371 .411 .433 .463 .493 .507 .437 .447
By the fifth year, four years after the original season, these numbers have mostly evened up because of the pull of parity on both extremes. But the worst of the worst teams tend to lag behind. It takes them until the eighth season -- seven years later -- to finally reach .500 as a group.
By these measures, teams that start out winning 20-24 games are as successful over the next decade as teams that start with records closer to .500.
Likelihood of Success
Wins %55 Wins Yrs >.500 Yrs >55
60+ 80 6.2 3.0
55-59 78 6.0 2.7
50-54 72 5.4 1.9
45-49 70 4.6 1.0
40-44 54 4.8 1.1
35-39 40 4.2 1.0
30-34 42 4.3 1.0
25-29 37 4.4 0.8
20-24 39 4.2 1.1
<19 15 2.9 0.3
The likelihood of reaching contention increases the better the team is originally, since less improvement is required. But because those forays into contention tend to be shorter than they are for teams that rebuild with young talent, the teams that start out winning 20-24 games average as many seasons at a 55-win level as any other group that starts with fewer than 50 wins.
While it could be nothing more than noise, 20-24 wins might represent a "sweet spot" in the standings where teams benefit from the chance to win the lottery with enough talent in place to build around a player drafted with a top pick.
For the most part, history shows that where a team starts in the standings doesn't make an enormous difference in where they end up years later. It appears execution is more important than strategy when it comes to building a championship contender. The exception is the teams that begin at the very bottom. And that's where Hinkie's plan could find trouble.
Starting from the bottom
The teams that have gone from the Drake zone to contention in the past two decades have almost uniformly struck gold in the draft. The five teams that have gotten there within six years in that span drafted Allen Iverson (1996 76ers), LeBron James (2003 Cavaliers), Chris Paul (2005 Hornets) and Blake Griffin (2009 Clippers). The lone exception, the 2008 Heat (Michael Beasley) already had a superstar on the roster in Dwyane Wade. That matches up with what Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight found on Basketball Prospectus in 2012: Getting a star player trumps everything else in building a contender.
IMO, the relevance to the Pelicans is that we've already struck gold a second time with AD. Now we have to build, and we may not be that far away.
The question marks? EG's contract and Monty improving as an in game coach.
Posted on 3/28/14 at 9:00 am to VOR
quote:
Getting a star player trumps everything else in building a contender.
We gots one of those.
Posted on 3/28/14 at 9:08 am to VOR
quote:
EG's contract and Monty improving as an in game coach.
Posted on 3/28/14 at 9:20 am to VOR
quote:
IMO, the relevance to the Pelicans is that we've already struck gold a second time with AD. Now we have to build, and we may not be that far away.
The question marks? EG's contract and Monty improving as an in game coach.
EG's contract can be dealt depending on what we are able to get back in return.
It doesn't have to be anything particularly good as long as it doesn't tie us down for longer than two seasons, as we can make further maneuvers to create cap space and/or get good players.
Hell, getting two players making the same amount of money, combined, as EG would be an improvement because it would be easier to trade one of them than it is to move EG's $14m contract.
As far as Monty goes, I think the big problem with him right now is his rotations as much as anything.
He insists on keeping guys like Steamer and Aminu playing a lot of minutes when they're not working out for us. He's been forced, by necessity, to do things like putting Evans, Miller, and Morrow out there and they've delivered when they've needed to over the past few weeks.
He still has problems with in-game strategy, which will be a problem come the playoffs, but this can be overcome with good team chemistry and leadership by guys like AD.
I like to compare it to the LSU Final Four team under John Brady circa 2004... That was a group of guys who had played together forever and had incredible chemistry, so they could overcome Brady being a completely inept coach most of the time. When it bit them, though, they got their asses reamed like when they went up against UCLA in the Final Four.
Posted on 3/28/14 at 9:32 am to teke184
Although we're going on a tear, monty isn't putting the team in the best position to win games until its too late.
I've seen enough of him to consider him an average coach at best. To compete with some of the best, you got to be at least above average and I don't see that in him unfortunately..
I've seen enough of him to consider him an average coach at best. To compete with some of the best, you got to be at least above average and I don't see that in him unfortunately..
Posted on 3/28/14 at 9:38 am to htran90
quote:
Although we're going on a tear, monty isn't putting the team in the best position to win games until its too late.
I've seen enough of him to consider him an average coach at best. To compete with some of the best, you got to be at least above average and I don't see that in him unfortunately..
I don't see him as the coach in the long-term... I'm just thinking about getting things to the level where we are seen as a destination to get a young assistant who could be the next Spolestra or an established coach willing to come back like Stan Van Gundy.
Posted on 3/28/14 at 9:43 am to teke184
quote:
get a young assistant
We tried this already.
Posted on 3/28/14 at 10:14 am to Chair
quote:
We tried this already.
We can either try again or get an established coach.
Problem is that, outside of the Van Gundys, the established coaches on the market are nearing retirement like George Karl or tend to be utterly inept.
Posted on 3/28/14 at 11:38 am to teke184
quote:
the next Spolestra
He did inherit a pretty good team.
Here is my hope:
Monty is the coach for all of next year.
Chicago sinks with Rose and the team hits the skids. They decide to rebuild and Tom Thibodeau moves on. (Even if it's in a Doc Rivers manner.)
Thibodeau sees AD and Jrue hitting their prime and becomes the Pelican's head coach.
EG is traded for an expiring and in 2015 FA we make a run at Kawhi Leonard/Anthony Randolph and Brooks Lopez/Marc Gasol/Al Jefferson.
Posted on 3/29/14 at 7:19 am to Suntiger
quote:
next Spolestra
He did inherit a pretty good team.
Spoelstra is a top tier coach in the league, regardless of talent. Swap him for Monty straight up and we see a completely different (and better) team.
quote:
2015 FA we make a run at Kawhi Leonard/Anthony Randolph and Brooks Lopez/Marc Gasol/Al Jefferson.
So the top choices are bigs in their 30s or with injury history, a bad wing, and a good wing that wont even be in the market? I think I'll pass on the summer of 2015 then.
Here's another article similar to Pelton's
LINK
quote:
Embracing the tank doesn't work? Being just good enough to flirt with the playoffs works even worse.
The choice isn't between being great and being awful. That's not a choice at all. The choice is between being awful and being mediocre. It turns out the being awful works out better on average.
quote:
Every single championship team in the modern era is, in part, a product of extreme luck and extreme success in team-building. To dismiss the role of luck in any great success — basketball or otherwise — is to defy nature.
There are no accidental great teams. Building a contender takes skill. That applies whether you're Sam Presti stripping a roster bare and rebuilding from scratch or whether you're Larry Bird making constant tweaks, additions and subtractions as you stay afloat. But luck — or really, randomness —always has its say, too. Perhaps the tanking teams rely on it more than do the treadmill clubs, and perhaps that's why they seem more likely than their counterparts to reach the highest levels more quickly.
The perfect combination — the championship-winning formula —is top-notch GM skill and excellent luck. The perfect anti-combination— the formula of the Kings and Wolves from 2006 on — is a lack of GM skill and horrible luck. Everyone else tends to have some mixture in shades of gray. To neglect the role that either play is highly dangerous for team owners and problematic for those of us who write about the game.
Posted on 3/29/14 at 9:18 am to corndeaux
Pels were awful. Got AD. The days of being awful are over. The end.
Posted on 3/29/14 at 11:40 am to VOR
Tanking fails unless you get a superstar. Just look how long the Kings, Wizards, Bucks have been terrible. So were the Clips, until they got their superstar. Cavs - terrible, then good with Lebron, then terrible again.
The Pels have one. Now the front office has to build intelligently around him.
The Pels have one. Now the front office has to build intelligently around him.
This post was edited on 3/29/14 at 11:41 am
Posted on 3/30/14 at 10:28 am to VOR
quote:
Tanking Produces Very Mixed Results
quote:you just can't handle the fact tanking got AD
VOR
Posted on 3/30/14 at 2:56 pm to Fearthehat0307
quote:
you just can't handle the fact tanking got AD
I'm R.A.'ing.
I'm glad it was only a short hiatus.
Posted on 4/3/14 at 5:09 pm to VOR
quote:hawks gm proving teams do tank
“We’re not focused on trying to be the eighth seed in the playoffs because that’s not our goal,” Ferry told USA Today. “We’re trying to build something that’s good, sustainable and the components are in place for us to do so.”
Posted on 4/3/14 at 5:39 pm to Fearthehat0307
kornheiser just said on PTI if you don't tank you get stuck in mediocrity
Posted on 4/3/14 at 6:30 pm to Fearthehat0307
quote:
kornheiser just said on PTI if you don't tank you get stuck in mediocrity
Was he wearing that super cool turban?
Posted on 4/3/14 at 7:00 pm to Fearthehat0307
quote:
kornheiser just said on PTI if you don't tank you get stuck in mediocrity
Sounds like bill simmons told him to say that
Plenty of teams have been successful without tanking recently:
OKC(they were just bad)
Spurs(once but they draft well on late rounders)
Miami(no need to explain)
Indy(just a smart team)
Memphis(got conley when they were bad but got gasol/zbo soon after through trade/FA)
Rockets(we all hate em but they've done well)
Portland(already had talent from playoff caliber teams and added lilliard)
Bulls(Won 35 games the year before they got rose)
I have more but it's clear neither he or simmons know anything.
There's a difference between "tanking" and just flat out bad.
Posted on 4/3/14 at 7:09 pm to LosLobos111
quote:
There's a difference between "tanking" and just flat out bad.
You would think that would be obvious, but, apparently, it's not.
Posted on 4/3/14 at 7:11 pm to LosLobos111
quote:he was talking more specifically about the hawks. saying big trades don't occur in the nba anymore and nobody wants to go to Atlanta (frick Atlanta ) in free agency. so only way to get "that" guy is in the draft
There's a difference between "tanking" and just flat out bad.
This post was edited on 4/3/14 at 7:12 pm
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