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re: General NBA Links
Posted on 7/29/14 at 10:11 am to corndeaux
Posted on 7/29/14 at 10:11 am to corndeaux
And here is another entry into the TeamSPACE concept from a week ago, this one focusing on the Southwest division.
They break down all 5 teams most used lineups (the Mavs are absurd). I'll just show the Pelicans and the write up.
LINK
Wonder what the Holiday, Gordon, Evans, Anderson, Davis hunting ground looks like.
They break down all 5 teams most used lineups (the Mavs are absurd). I'll just show the Pelicans and the write up.
quote:
Rounding out the division, the chart for the Pelicans is an interesting mix of things that don’t seem to work well together. It begins with likely too much area covered by Jason Smith and Al-Farouq Aminu, and not enough from the Anthony Davis/Eric Gordon/Jrue Holiday trio. There are promising trends here. Though. Davis is obviously most effective in the hoop, and has some tiny Hunting Grounds developing along the baseline, foul line extended, and top of the key. Gordon consistently dominates both 3pt wings. Holiday displays the potential of a balanced attack, with strong activity in the paint and some activity near the foul line/elbow. However, his midrange game is crowded by Smith (and vice versa), and only has one distinctly unique Hunting Ground from deep to his name. In a strictly shot selection/Hunting Ground perspective, this lineup resembles a less disciplined Spurs group.
A few tweaks could go a long way for the Pelicans offense, including:
Keep Aminu (or rather, his replacement) in the the corners and out of the elbow
More Brow shots on the block and near the foul line
Share the elbows between Smith and Holiday; likely giving Holiday more room on the right side (the chart’s left side)
LINK
Wonder what the Holiday, Gordon, Evans, Anderson, Davis hunting ground looks like.
1
Posted on 7/29/14 at 10:14 am to TigerinATL
quote:
That really expands the dumb zone. It's basically saying a Tyreke or Aminu 3 point shot is a better shot than the average player shooting anywhere between 3 feet and the 3 point line. That's crazy, and surely something that is only true in theory and not practice.
I would say context and design matter and neither guy should be looking to jack up 3s under any circumstance.
For both of those guys the question is what are they shooting on 15-18 footers and how frequently are they taking those shots. If they are <40% on 5 FGA/36, perhaps turning one or two of those into open 3s might be better in the long run?
Posted on 7/29/14 at 10:24 am to corndeaux
quote:
Wonder what the Holiday, Gordon, Evans, Anderson, Davis hunting ground looks like.
Anderson and Gordon overlap a lot on the 3 pointers since they both shoot most of their 3s from the wing. But that's ok since there are 2 wings. I would imagine if you have a 3 guard lineup with Tyreke running the offense you'd put Ryno in the corner. Not as good as on the wings, but he'll still be respectable and that leaves Gordon and Holiday in position to reset the offense if needed.
Salmons should fit nicely into that corner 3 space previously occupied by Aminu. His fit seems to be really good and I think people are going to be surprised that Salmons isn't terrible.
Posted on 7/29/14 at 10:33 am to TigerinATL
quote:
Anderson and Gordon overlap a lot on the 3 pointers since they both shoot most of their 3s from the wing. But that's ok since there are 2 wings. I would imagine if you have a 3 guard lineup with Tyreke running the offense you'd put Ryno in the corne
Definitely. Houston's chart is crazy in just how much dead space/balance there is. I think I would put Holiday in the corner. Anderson one wing (get his bigger defender out in space, farther away from the rim), Gordon the other, Davis coming for a PnR and crash. Or Anderson setting the screen, w/ Davis lurking short corner/baseline. Can use Davis or Anderson as Dirk like figures in PnR opening up the paint for all of the athletic guards to attack w/ or w/o the ball. They have that gravitational pull that Lowe and other talk about.
quote:
Salmons should fit nicely into that corner 3 space previously occupied by Aminu. His fit seems to be really good and I think people are going to be surprised that Salmons isn't terrible.
Yep. Shoot, defend reasonably for 20 mpg isn't a huge assignment. He and Miller should be able to fill that space. It's crazy seeing how much Smiht action there was. He hit those shots at a good rate, but man, that's not what you want to see on offense.
Posted on 7/30/14 at 6:57 am to TigerinATL
quote:
That really expands the dumb zone.
Something I thought about some more- I don't know if that is true.
RA shots are gold. But mid range and non RA Paint shots both have their efficiency problems on a macro level. Certainly there are guys (Dirk mid range, Parker floaters in the paint) who flip that script, but on the whole those shots are the "hardest" or "least efficient" on a broad level. Non RA Paint shots have been typically excluded from the Dumb Zone from what I remember here, but they are hit at about the same rate as Mid Range despite being closer to the rim.
Teams w/ post players (Charlotte, Houston, Spurs, Memphis) and Miami were at the top of FG% in that zone. And Miami hit them 3% better than anyone else because LeBron and Wade. Spurs were 2 and hit them at 44%. They took 700 more 3PA and hit those at ~41%. Given eFG and expected value, that type of ratio (ignoring FG%) seems about right for an NBA team.
Meanwhile the Pelicans took roughly the same number of Non RA Paint shots and 3s and hit them at the same rate (that 3PT eFG% comes out slightly better than they shot at the rim as a team). Again, on a broad level, that doesn't make as much sense to me. I'm not sure you can contribute that season long distribution to the shots not being open. That seems more like a flaw in design, execution, or both.
This post was edited on 7/30/14 at 6:59 am
Posted on 7/30/14 at 7:12 am to corndeaux
quote:
Spurs were 2 and hit them at 44%. They took 700 more 3PA and hit those at ~41%. Given eFG and expected value, that type of ratio (ignoring FG%) seems about right for an NBA team.
How many fouls were drawn in the "non RA paint" versus behind the arc.
Mid-range, it's a moot point, but I wonder how relevant it is in the non RA paint zone.
Posted on 7/30/14 at 8:55 am to Galactic Inquisitor
quote:
How many fouls were drawn in the "non RA paint" versus behind the arc
Good question. Certainly for those guys in the post, you have to imagine there are more fouls. Then again, we are seeing more 3PA fouls now. Not the same frequency as in the paint, but it is a rising trend.
We can find out overall FT Rate for each team. That helps a little, but not enough (the Spurs had the lowest rate in the league). Would we look at TS% for Non RA Paint? Or some other measure? I don't even know if there is a way for us to find these things out.
Posted on 7/30/14 at 9:29 am to corndeaux
That's the thing, it would be hard to isolate data like TS% for a zone. You'd probably need to isolate by multiplying overall FT% times the number of free throw attempts created from that zone. That should limit the effect of anomalies in FT shooting.
I do think something closer to TS% would be more indicative than eFG% for this type of exercise.
I do think something closer to TS% would be more indicative than eFG% for this type of exercise.
Posted on 7/30/14 at 12:33 pm to Galactic Inquisitor
Another article from Nylon Calculus pointing out how much Asik should help the defense.
LINK /
quote:
Enter Asik. Even sulking through much of the season following the well-chronicled failure of the Asik-Dwight Howard twin towers experiment, Asik was one of the very best paint defenders in the league in 2013-14, “saving” the 8th most points per minute of the 80 big men playing 20+ MPG. Asik was only slightly more effective at forcing misses when he contested shots (47.7% shooting allowed as compared to the 48.9% allowed by Davis), but he was much more studious at being in position to challenge shots, with a contest%7 of 51.3%8 against Davis’ 29.9%9.
With the rim area better covered, Davis will now be free to use his mobility and length to get hands in passing lanes and block shots from impossible distances, while New Orleans’s guards might improve their own defense a bit knowing that if they do get beat, there will be an effective second line of defense. Of course, there will be a trade off. Asik is an very limited offensive player: a poor (though improved) free throw shooter, with zero range and poor hands. However, the Pelicans had no trouble scoring last season, they just couldn’t stop anyone. If points ever do become an issue, they can always revert back to the Holiday/Evans/Davis/Anderson “bomb squad” lineups which scored a silly 127 pts./100 possessions in limited time last season10. The ability to deploy a credible defensive lineup (as well as the health of key players after the blight of injuries last year) will be an important part of New Orleans attempt to reach the Western Conference playoffs.
LINK /
Posted on 7/31/14 at 7:26 am to TigerinATL
Good read. It will be interesting to see how they play things when Anderson/Davis is the pairing. You would think they would go more conservative w/ only Davis out there to keep him closer to the rim, but they didn't really want to do that last year. Will they want to put him on 2nd unit Cs?
If they continue to have Davis roam. a big wing who can cover ground and alter shots is almost a necessity in these smaller lineups.
If they continue to have Davis roam. a big wing who can cover ground and alter shots is almost a necessity in these smaller lineups.
Posted on 8/4/14 at 12:01 pm to corndeaux
More shot data from Nylon Calculus. This is an archive of Expected Points Per Shot and Opponents Expected Points Per Shot going all the way back to 2001 (there's even a Seattle SuperSonics label).
Here is an explanation from Ian Levy
Here and Here are Team XPPS and Opponent XPPS.
What's neat about this is you set the data to see how the team performed each year, so you can look at every year Monty/Demps have been in town. Or how the team fared when Paul was running the show with West and Peja.
Nothing that hasn't been discussed for the Demps/Williams teams using this metric. But still interesting to see it put out this way.
They get to the rim at a great rate yet are terrible at finishing there post Paul. They take more non RA paint and mid range shots compared to the league (mid range has dropped the past 4 years while non RA paint has been fairly consistent) and they take less corner 3s than just about anyone and are healthy above the break only when Anderson is playing.
The defense the past couple of years has been a grease fire (2 of the 4 worst defense in XPPS). Basically teams get the best shots (rim and corner 3) whenever they want them and make them well above league average. Oh and the Pelicans foul a lot.
Omer Asik just might be the most important player on this team.
Here is an explanation from Ian Levy
Here and Here are Team XPPS and Opponent XPPS.
What's neat about this is you set the data to see how the team performed each year, so you can look at every year Monty/Demps have been in town. Or how the team fared when Paul was running the show with West and Peja.
Nothing that hasn't been discussed for the Demps/Williams teams using this metric. But still interesting to see it put out this way.
They get to the rim at a great rate yet are terrible at finishing there post Paul. They take more non RA paint and mid range shots compared to the league (mid range has dropped the past 4 years while non RA paint has been fairly consistent) and they take less corner 3s than just about anyone and are healthy above the break only when Anderson is playing.
The defense the past couple of years has been a grease fire (2 of the 4 worst defense in XPPS). Basically teams get the best shots (rim and corner 3) whenever they want them and make them well above league average. Oh and the Pelicans foul a lot.
Omer Asik just might be the most important player on this team.
Posted on 8/4/14 at 12:45 pm to corndeaux
A Q and A with Demarcus Cousins about his team USA experience and how much wants to make the team.
Notable, he mentioned how we've put nice pieces around AD, and while he's older than AD, they're still trying to figure that out in Sacramento:
Also, i'm really rooting for him to make the team.
Notable, he mentioned how we've put nice pieces around AD, and while he's older than AD, they're still trying to figure that out in Sacramento:
quote:
I feel like this is a whole new beginning for me and the Kings. My pro career … it all started off so bad. It was this after this after this. Then we went into the lockout. It was rough; it was really rough. And I’m only 23 (he turns 24 on Aug. 13), but I feel like I am so far behind.
In what way? Again, 23?
Well, look at the younger guys. Anthony Davis. He is on a team with Jrue Holiday, Ryan Anderson; on paper it fits. We are still looking for players that fit.
Also, i'm really rooting for him to make the team.
Posted on 8/4/14 at 1:25 pm to eyeran
More love for Davis. This time from Parsons, Harden and Lillard:
quote:
“He’s gotten so much better,” said Dallas forward Chandler Parsons, himself a vastly improved player from his rookie year. “He’s one of my favorite players here. He’s so long defensively that he can get his hands on a lot of things. He blocks a lot of shots. Even when he’s not blocking shots, he’s altering them. He’s a great rebounder, he runs the floor, he’s athletic. There’s not much he can’t do on the basketball court. Like I said, he’s one of my favorite players here. I think he’s got a heck of a future ahead of him.” LINK
Posted on 8/4/14 at 2:48 pm to eyeran
That Cousins article is great. #Boogie4America
Posted on 8/7/14 at 10:37 am to corndeaux
Some good reads from GMIB today.
A look at how stretch bigs make their big partner better offensive players
LINK
Defense is worrisome overall, but Davis/Anderson is the only pair that was worse in Net Rating. Anderson was on some great defenses in Orlando, so it's not all on him.
A look at how stretch bigs make their big partner better offensive players
LINK
quote:
Thanks to nbawowy.com, we can look at a player’s efficiency and production when another player is either on or off the court. Here are the results for how some of the more well-known stretch fours affect the offense of their respective centers.
quote:
The centers listed above were not terrible on their own, but the data shows that they become elite from an efficiency perspective when paired with a stretch four. Just look at Anthony Davis with Ryan Anderson, since I discussed it above. Davis is a great player regardless of his teammates, but when you put Anderson with him, he suddenly becomes one of the most dynamic offensive players in the league.
quote:
The NBA is always trending. Advanced stats tell us that having two post players - unless they're elite and paired with elite guards (like Blake Griffin and Chris Paul) - isn't really the ideal way to build an efficient offense. We will continue to see big men learn to play like guards and guards play like big men.
That means players are becoming more identifiable by their skill set than their "position." And that's not a bad thing. When you know that Kevin Love is going to stretch a defense out to the perimeter with his shooting, that's a tangible offensive weapon you can build around. You can then fit all the pieces together. Find a guy who can run the pick and roll. Find a rim protector. Find another shooter.
Defense is worrisome overall, but Davis/Anderson is the only pair that was worse in Net Rating. Anderson was on some great defenses in Orlando, so it's not all on him.
Posted on 8/8/14 at 9:20 am to Galactic Inquisitor
Posted on 8/8/14 at 10:20 am to corndeaux
A quote from the article on James Harden's style of play:
Understatement of the century.
If Tyreke and Gordon received half of the calls that Harden does, the Pels would be in good shape
quote:
It might not be the most aesthetically appealing style of play
Understatement of the century.
If Tyreke and Gordon received half of the calls that Harden does, the Pels would be in good shape
Posted on 8/20/14 at 12:14 pm to Epic Cajun
I found this explanation of how Philly is planning to manipulate the salary floor pretty interesting.
LINK /
quote:
The one that creates the most conversation is the 76ers because they are roughly $16.777 million under the “floor.”
In previous Collective Bargaining Agreements, teams had to really spend that amount of money. However, under the current agreement, team salary is calculated on what’s on the roster at the end of the year, meaning the 76ers can and likely will run on the lean side for as long as they can.
It is simple economics. Why pay out more cash than necessary to field the team? The plan is to keep the flexibility open for teams over the luxury tax that may want to dump a salary at the deadline, when Philadelphia can extract assets for having the space.
What happens if the 76ers don’t meet the minimum at the trade deadline? They would be required to pay their existing roster the shortfall on a schedule agreed to by the Players’ Association.
So if the 76ers don’t meet the minimum, their existing guys get bonuses and the team gets to defer paying it until the end of the season.
What’s far more likely is that the long rumored Amar’e Stoudemire to Philadelphia deal gets done at the deadline. The Sixers take on Stoudemire’s $23 million salary cap number, which pushes them way over the minimum. They would only owe him roughly 30 percent of his remaining contract, so they’d end up paying him $7 million in cash and likely extract a draft pick or a rookie scale player for their troubles.
LINK /
Posted on 8/20/14 at 4:23 pm to TigerinATL
Must be really nice to be Sam Hinkie. Go to a job everyday with zero expectations of the team to actually performing well. He'll get that call from ownership soon though, asking when they might actually start scoring more points than other teams.
And they have the balls to try to hold the rest of the league hostage so they can continue to lose on purpose. As if they're the only ones who's strategy would be disrupted by draft changes. Every franchise has a gameplan built around the draft, free agency, trades, etc. So it would affect all 32 teams. Theoretically EVERY team COULD be pissed about the draft changes, because it changes every team's thinking. Just so happens Philly's strategy has been to lose on purpose so it affects them differently.
And they have the balls to try to hold the rest of the league hostage so they can continue to lose on purpose. As if they're the only ones who's strategy would be disrupted by draft changes. Every franchise has a gameplan built around the draft, free agency, trades, etc. So it would affect all 32 teams. Theoretically EVERY team COULD be pissed about the draft changes, because it changes every team's thinking. Just so happens Philly's strategy has been to lose on purpose so it affects them differently.
Posted on 8/20/14 at 4:29 pm to eyeran
The lottery doesn't need drastic change. Bad teams are always going to exist because sometimes you just have to hit the reset button. What you want to limit is what Golden State did a few years ago to keep their top 7 protected pick.
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