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Message
Why Eric Gordon should be tradable this summer
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:11 am
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:11 am
A player's worth, be it as a Free Agent or in a trade is based entirely on economics 101, Supply and Demand. Especially with a salary floor, most teams view cap space like a government budget, they just have to spend it.
Here is the supply of teams with at least $10 million in cap space next year. Assuming a $60 million cap I count 14:
Lakers
Bulls (can amnesty Boozer)
Celtics
Wizards
Mavs
Cavs
Hornets
Pistons
Magic
Jazz
Suns
Bucks
Sixers
Kings (if Gay opts out)
Here are the Free Agents that will command big money. I'm not counting guys like Melo or LeBron who, if they move, will most likely move in a S&T to a team without cap space. List of FAs
Greg Monroe
Eric Bledsoe
Luol Deng
Gordon Hayward
Pau Gasol
Lance Stephenson
Evan Turner
Rudy Gay
Kyle Lowry
Isaiah Thomas
Spencer Hawes
Marcin Gortat
Anderson Varejao
That's the list of guys that, if they all opt out, are probably looking at $10+ million or more
Stephenson stays with Indy (which along with no Melo probably takes Chicago off the board)
Bledsoe Stays with Phoenix but they'd still have enough leftover for a $10-$12 million signing
Hayward stays with the Jazz but they'd still have enough for a $10-$12 million signing after that
Gasol stays with Lakers for $15ish and Lakers still have $10-$12 million
Gay and Thomas stay with the Kings taking Sacramento off the board
Lowry stays with the Raptors
So that leaves the big cap space teams as
Celtics
Wizards
Mavs
Cavs
Hornets
Pistons
Magic
Bucks
Sixers
Suns
Jazz
Lakers
With the big money prospects being
Luol Deng
Greg Monroe
Evan Turner
Spencer Hawes
Marcin Gortat
Anderson Varejao
Deng to Mavs
Gortat stays with Wiz
Celtics
Cavs
Hornets
Pistons
Magic
Bucks
Sixers
Suns
Jazz
Lakers
And you see how this game of musical chairs starts playing out. At some point a team with cap space will start thinking, do I want 1-2 years of Gordon, or do I want to risk 4 years of similar money for Evan Turner?
On top of that we'll have our 2015 pick to trade. Now I'm sure some of you are already wincing at that prospect, but what if Gordon + 2015 unprotected pick got you a S&T for Monroe?
Here is the supply of teams with at least $10 million in cap space next year. Assuming a $60 million cap I count 14:
Lakers
Bulls (can amnesty Boozer)
Celtics
Wizards
Mavs
Cavs
Hornets
Pistons
Magic
Jazz
Suns
Bucks
Sixers
Kings (if Gay opts out)
Here are the Free Agents that will command big money. I'm not counting guys like Melo or LeBron who, if they move, will most likely move in a S&T to a team without cap space. List of FAs
Greg Monroe
Eric Bledsoe
Luol Deng
Gordon Hayward
Pau Gasol
Lance Stephenson
Evan Turner
Rudy Gay
Kyle Lowry
Isaiah Thomas
Spencer Hawes
Marcin Gortat
Anderson Varejao
That's the list of guys that, if they all opt out, are probably looking at $10+ million or more
Stephenson stays with Indy (which along with no Melo probably takes Chicago off the board)
Bledsoe Stays with Phoenix but they'd still have enough leftover for a $10-$12 million signing
Hayward stays with the Jazz but they'd still have enough for a $10-$12 million signing after that
Gasol stays with Lakers for $15ish and Lakers still have $10-$12 million
Gay and Thomas stay with the Kings taking Sacramento off the board
Lowry stays with the Raptors
So that leaves the big cap space teams as
Celtics
Wizards
Mavs
Cavs
Hornets
Pistons
Magic
Bucks
Sixers
Suns
Jazz
Lakers
With the big money prospects being
Luol Deng
Greg Monroe
Evan Turner
Spencer Hawes
Marcin Gortat
Anderson Varejao
Deng to Mavs
Gortat stays with Wiz
Celtics
Cavs
Hornets
Pistons
Magic
Bucks
Sixers
Suns
Jazz
Lakers
And you see how this game of musical chairs starts playing out. At some point a team with cap space will start thinking, do I want 1-2 years of Gordon, or do I want to risk 4 years of similar money for Evan Turner?
On top of that we'll have our 2015 pick to trade. Now I'm sure some of you are already wincing at that prospect, but what if Gordon + 2015 unprotected pick got you a S&T for Monroe?
12
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:15 am to TigerinATL
So what you're saying is, S&T Gordon for Lebron?
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:21 am to TigerinATL
quote:
Isaiah Thomas
Spencer Hawes
Marcin Gortat
Anderson Varejao
You think all these guys get 10mill+?? MAYBE Gortat and Hawes, but Isaiah Thomas and Varejao?
I really don't think Varejao gets that much, even though bigs get a premium. He's just hurt wayyyy too often.
Also:
Can we send out Tyreke as well?
quote:
Gordon + 2015 unprotected pick got you a S&T for Monroe?
Ouch.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:27 am to Fun Bunch
Actually some teams without cap space may be buyers for Gordon.
They will only be able to add talent with value above the MLE in cost through trades. Though Gordon is likely overpaid, he is clearly worth more than the MLE, provided he is as healthy as a typical NBA player this season.
I agree with everything you said, but I think the picture provides another actual suitor or two. Your conclusion holds: he should be movable.
They will only be able to add talent with value above the MLE in cost through trades. Though Gordon is likely overpaid, he is clearly worth more than the MLE, provided he is as healthy as a typical NBA player this season.
I agree with everything you said, but I think the picture provides another actual suitor or two. Your conclusion holds: he should be movable.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:27 am to Fun Bunch
Gordan Hayword to the pels please.Way better than Evan Turner
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:27 am to TigerinATL
I think you're forgetting that Gordon is terrible, on a max contract, with glass knees.
I appreciate your optimism though
I appreciate your optimism though
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:29 am to TigerinATL
quote:
On top of that we'll have our 2015 pick to trade. Now I'm sure some of you are already wincing at that prospect, but what if Gordon + 2015 unprotected pick got you a S&T for Monroe?
What's the new CBA say about this?
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:29 am to droman225
And I'm pretty sure we can't trade our 2015 pick
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:30 am to droman225
quote:
And I'm pretty sure we can't trade our 2015 pick
Likewise
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:34 am to Fun Bunch
quote:
You think all these guys get 10mill+?? MAYBE Gortat and Hawes, but Isaiah Thomas and Varejao?
I think Thomas gets more than MLE staying with the Kings. 20/6 with a 21 PER. Varejao I'm a little iffy on, but the basic point remains the same, the supply of cap space exceeds the supply of big money Free Agents.
quote:
Ouch.
It all depends on Monroe's fit. My biggest concern is his fit on defense. He's not exactly a top rim protector, but he meets the low foul rate, good rebound rate criteria I'm looking for in a defensive big. His offensive production is a bonus that justifies his high cost.
Would I rather dump Gordon, sign Deng and keep the 2015 pick? Yes. But if Monroe fits at a position of need, getting a B+ starter is more important than drafting a C rotation player.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:35 am to droman225
quote:
And I'm pretty sure we can't trade our 2015 pick
Not right now, but on July 1st once the clock on next season starts it's no longer a future pick.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:36 am to TigerinATL
But it's a consecutive pick
I thought the language is you can't trade consecutive picks
I thought the language is you can't trade consecutive picks
This post was edited on 2/25/14 at 9:37 am
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:37 am to MrWiseGuy
We can trade our 2015 pick after the 2014 draft ends.
The rule is you can't trade two consecutive future picks. However, once the 2014 pick is conveyed and Philly drafts their player, we no longer have any future 1sts "owed", which means the restrictions on trading our 2015 pick go away.
That doesn't mean trading our 2015 pick is a good idea unless we get an incredible deal, but it is something that is on the table once the 2014 draft ends.
The rule is you can't trade two consecutive future picks. However, once the 2014 pick is conveyed and Philly drafts their player, we no longer have any future 1sts "owed", which means the restrictions on trading our 2015 pick go away.
That doesn't mean trading our 2015 pick is a good idea unless we get an incredible deal, but it is something that is on the table once the 2014 draft ends.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:40 am to droman225
quote:
The Stepien rule applies only to future first round picks. For example, if this is the 2011-12 season, then a team can trade its 2012 first round pick without regard to whether they had traded their 2011 pick, since their 2011 pick is no longer a future pick. But they can't trade away both their 2012 and 2013 picks, since both are future picks. Teams sometimes work around this rule by trading first round picks in alternate years, or by giving one team the right to swap picks with the other.
LINK
Replace 11 with 14, 12 with 15, and 13 with 16 and you have our situation.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:40 am to droman225
quote:
I thought the language is you can't trade consecutive picks
See below
quote:
The rule is you can't trade two consecutive future picks. However, once the 2014 pick is conveyed and Philly drafts their player, we no longer have any future 1sts "owed", which means the restrictions on trading our 2015 pick go away.
Yup
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:41 am to TigerinATL
Ahhhh gotcha
Posted on 2/25/14 at 9:55 am to TigerinATL
I tend to agree. Interesting notes from Lowe today in a trade deadline recap.
Welp.
No thank you to an unprotected pick. Top 12, sure.
quote:
On the flip side, teams understand they need a top-20 player or two to win a title, and they are going to be careful about trading any asset for a player below that level. A phrase I’ve heard constantly over the last six months: “Player X is just a guy.” Seriously, “just a guy” is happening around the NBA in a way “fetch” never could. Front-office types apply it as a mild insult to a pretty good player making something like $6 million to $10 million per year.
The implication is that you can get 80 percent of that player’s production on something close to a minimum salary, making it silly to give up anything of real value — gobs of money, a single first-round pick — for such a player.
quote:
But the prices for the “pretty good” in free agency are coming down a bit, and more teams see trading for those kinds of players as a fool’s errand.
quote:
Pelicans, who won’t have real cap flexibility as things stand now until July 2016. They’re better off than Denver, since they’re far enough under the tax to use the midlevel exception without worry. They’ve also suffered so many injuries this season that it is hard to evaluate what they have. Anthony Davis will be a top-10 overall player, sooner rather than later. But the Pellies sniffed around a lot of stuff at the deadline, they have two pricey deals attached to players verging on “just a guy” status in Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans.
Welp.
quote:
2015 unprotected pick
No thank you to an unprotected pick. Top 12, sure.
Posted on 2/25/14 at 10:10 am to TigerinATL
Good analysis. I'm not sure anyone wants Gordon. And I don't know what we would have to take in return, but here's hoping.
Would love to land one of these guys. Young but experienced up and coming players at a position of need.
WANT WANT WANT WANT WANT
quote:
Greg Monroe
Spencer Hawes
Would love to land one of these guys. Young but experienced up and coming players at a position of need.
WANT WANT WANT WANT WANT
Posted on 2/25/14 at 10:21 am to TigerinATL
quote:
On top of that we'll have our 2015 pick to trade.
Isn't the rule that you can't trade your 1st round pick 2 years in a row? I'm sure there is a loophole though.
Eta, I need to learn to read.
This post was edited on 2/25/14 at 10:24 am
Posted on 2/25/14 at 10:23 am to OceanMan
quote:
Isn't the rule that you can't trade your 1st round pick 2 years in a row? I'm sure there is a loophole though.
Have you not read this thread?
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