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Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:37 pm
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:37 pm
Not excusing what happened and would have loved any chance.
But, what is the % chance that calling a time out with 20 or so seconds would have changed the outcome? We would have been without any more time outs and starting likely starting well on out side of the field.
Gotta think it would have been pretty extreme long shot.
But, what is the % chance that calling a time out with 20 or so seconds would have changed the outcome? We would have been without any more time outs and starting likely starting well on out side of the field.
Gotta think it would have been pretty extreme long shot.
26
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:39 pm to Methuselah
Sure it's an extreme long shot. But he basically guaranteed that we had a 0 percent chance of winning if they made the field goal. It really can't be defended.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:39 pm to Methuselah
I'm no statistician, by I'm pretty confident that the outcome wouldn't have changed.
There is always something that people have to point to and say "If this was different, we would have won the game!" I think that 20 seconds is the weakest attempt.
There is always something that people have to point to and say "If this was different, we would have won the game!" I think that 20 seconds is the weakest attempt.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:39 pm to Methuselah
3.7%
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:39 pm to Methuselah
Not a statistician, but we would've had a razor thin chance to win. That's the worst part of this, we were probably going to lose anyway. Miles just gave the masses more fuel, even if it was pointless. Dumb move, but we still lose in that situation.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:40 pm to Powerman
quote:
Sure it's an extreme long shot. But he basically guaranteed that we had a 0 percent chance of winning if they made the field goal. It really can't be defended.
This.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:40 pm to Methuselah
5% chance it would have changed the outcome
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:42 pm to Methuselah
quote:
Statisticians: What is the % that calling TO with 20 seconds would've affected
It was closer to thirty seconds than twenty. In any event, irrespective of the exact probabilities, failing to call the TO was indefensible stupidity.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:42 pm to Bear Is Dead
3 INT's
6 3rd and 8 or longer conversions on our D
That is why we lost.....not because we lost 20 seconds
6 3rd and 8 or longer conversions on our D
That is why we lost.....not because we lost 20 seconds
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:42 pm to Methuselah
The difference is exponential. 20 seconds is 3 pass attempts, a spike, and a field goal attempt. It would make for a long shot, but it would be a shot. It bumps LSU's chances up from .1% to probably around 20%.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:42 pm to Powerman
quote:dont bring this reasoning to miles fans. they are too stupid to understand the issue isn't rather or not we would have won its the fact that our coach killed the very small percent chance we had.
Sure it's an extreme long shot. But he basically guaranteed that we had a 0 percent chance of winning if they made the field goal. It really can't be defended.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:43 pm to Relham10
What had a much better chance of changing the outcome would have been to use up more clock on the scoring drive right before that. We hand off to Hill a couple of more times and there's not enough time left for OM to drive far enough for a field goal. I figure our chances in overtime would have been no worse than 50/50.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:44 pm to heartbreakTiger
quote:
the issue isn't rather or not we would have won its the fact that our coach killed the very small percent chance we had.
This is basically a correct statement.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:44 pm to The312
quote:
failing to call the TO was indefensible stupidity.
Yes, to clarify, I'm not defending the decision, because it sucked. I'm just not losing sleep over it because I think there was no way we were marching down the field given the first 59:30 of the game.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:45 pm to heartbreakTiger
Logic has nothing to do with your Miles hate
We lost because of to's and inept D on 3rd downs
But that doesn't help your shitty agenda
We lost because of to's and inept D on 3rd downs
But that doesn't help your shitty agenda
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:45 pm to MountainTiger
that is dumb though, when you are down a touchdown you dont play the game of oh let us take down the clock to a precise level. you have to make sure the game is tied. now if we get to the one or something maybe wait till the play clock is lower before snapping it but you can't say well we dont want to score quick here when you are down.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:46 pm to GRTiger
quote:
I think that 20 seconds is the weakest attempt.
More than likely the 25 seconds that were left on the clock after the third down play wouldn't have allowed LSU to go score any points, we will never know.
It was, however, incredibly stupid. How do you not call a timeout and at least give yourself a slim chance?
I'm a Miles supporter and I do not think we are on the decline like most of the board, but that was just dumb. There is no argument on the face of the planet that would make that decision make sense, ESPECIALLY since it was 4th down for Ole Miss and they had no other decision except to kick the field goal.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:46 pm to Methuselah
He should've called it sooner but whatever.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:46 pm to Methuselah
Miles inferred that our best chance, in his opinion, was to ice the kicker and block the kick.
How common is it to block field goals? IDK, but not great, and even more rare to block two in one game.
IMO, 20 seconds to get roughly 45 yards with no time outs > blocking an easy field goal. Of course, that assumes the team would be organized enough to run that kind of hurry up offense and rush the field goal unit in on time.
How common is it to block field goals? IDK, but not great, and even more rare to block two in one game.
IMO, 20 seconds to get roughly 45 yards with no time outs > blocking an easy field goal. Of course, that assumes the team would be organized enough to run that kind of hurry up offense and rush the field goal unit in on time.
Posted on 10/21/13 at 4:47 pm to kingbob
quote:
around 20%.
20 seconds with no timeouts and you think we win 1 out of 5? 
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