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What LSU Has To Do To Make The Tourney - as of Feb 15th
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:44 pm
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:44 pm
First, you can throw out all the typical "resume" talk that you hear on ESPN. LSU does not have the RPI nor quality wins; those things don't matter. What matters is that the selection committee is going to let 5 SEC teams into the Tourney.
1. USCe is a must win on the road. They are 8-6 at home and 1-7 in the SEC. This get's LSU's road to the Tourney going.
2. Win 3 of the next 4. With LSU's remaining schedule, this will be fun to watch. Assuming we get the W vs. USCe, the remaining schedule is:
Georgia 3 - 7
@Ole Miss 5 - 5
Tennessee 5 - 5
@Auburn 3 - 8
3. Kentucy or Florida must win the SEC Tourney. Based on this year, that is very likely. A suprise win by some other team in the SEC Tourney usually means someone gets left out. That would likely be LSU.
Conclusion: If Nos. 1 - 3 play out, and we really have a chance here, then LSU will get in.
SEC Standings as of Feb 15th:
Kentucky 11 - 0
Florida 8 - 3
Vanderbilt 6 - 4
Mississippi St. 6 - 5
Arkansas 5 - 5
Ole Miss 5 - 5
Tennessee 5 - 5
Alabama 5 - 6
LSU 5 - 6
Do you notice the log jam from position No. 3 to 9? It's nice and crowded. LSU needs to squeak into that top 5.
A 4-1 finish is possible. A 4-1 finish gets LSU in.
Frick a RPI
1. USCe is a must win on the road. They are 8-6 at home and 1-7 in the SEC. This get's LSU's road to the Tourney going.
2. Win 3 of the next 4. With LSU's remaining schedule, this will be fun to watch. Assuming we get the W vs. USCe, the remaining schedule is:
Georgia 3 - 7
@Ole Miss 5 - 5
Tennessee 5 - 5
@Auburn 3 - 8
3. Kentucy or Florida must win the SEC Tourney. Based on this year, that is very likely. A suprise win by some other team in the SEC Tourney usually means someone gets left out. That would likely be LSU.
Conclusion: If Nos. 1 - 3 play out, and we really have a chance here, then LSU will get in.
SEC Standings as of Feb 15th:
Kentucky 11 - 0
Florida 8 - 3
Vanderbilt 6 - 4
Mississippi St. 6 - 5
Arkansas 5 - 5
Ole Miss 5 - 5
Tennessee 5 - 5
Alabama 5 - 6
LSU 5 - 6
Do you notice the log jam from position No. 3 to 9? It's nice and crowded. LSU needs to squeak into that top 5.
A 4-1 finish is possible. A 4-1 finish gets LSU in.
Frick a RPI
This post was edited on 2/15/12 at 4:51 pm
8
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:46 pm to jrodLSUke
If we go 4-1 to finish out we may still need at least 2-3 wins in the SEC tourney to get in. An early exit from the SEC tourney pushes us out of the tourney even if we the regular season finish strong.
This post was edited on 2/15/12 at 1:47 pm
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:47 pm to jrodLSUke
I agree that 5 SEC teams can get in this year, but they don't necessarily have to pick the teams that finished 1-5.
Just for comparisons sake(because I don't feel like looking up everyone's schedule):
Kentucky 3
Florida 21
Vandy 28
Bama 39
Mississippi St 49
LSU 67
Arkansas 69
Ole Miss 77
Georgia 113
Tennessee 120
Auburn 131
USCe 185
Must win a game or two in the SECt in N.O.
Just for comparisons sake(because I don't feel like looking up everyone's schedule):
Kentucky 3
Florida 21
Vandy 28
Bama 39
Mississippi St 49
LSU 67
Arkansas 69
Ole Miss 77
Georgia 113
Tennessee 120
Auburn 131
USCe 185
Must win a game or two in the SECt in N.O.
This post was edited on 2/15/12 at 1:54 pm
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:48 pm to jrodLSUke
The more I see it, the worse I feel. I think only 4 teams get into the tourney from SEC. I think LSU could get into there, but its gonna take us being near flawless the rest of the way.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:55 pm to SouthOfSouth
Win baby win. That is what we have to do 
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:55 pm to saintsfan92612
quote:
I agree that 5 SEC teams can get in this year, but they don't necessarily have to pick the teams that finished 1-5.
Agreed. Which is why it is important for UK or UF to win the SEC Tourney. Which is very probable.
If LSU finishes strong in their last 10, UK and UF will do the rest for us. Which is keep another team from making a run in the SEC Tourney and taking that last (maybe) spot.
At any rate, the win against MSU just made LSU basketball fun again.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 1:59 pm to jrodLSUke
I feel like if we win out these last 5 games and get the third seed in the SEC tourny we are probably in. If we go 4 and 1 and win a tourny game we are on the bubble. 3 and 2 and we are out.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:01 pm to jrodLSUke
I still do not expect to make it to the dance but that is some very good info by the OP. Thanks.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:02 pm to Palm Beach Tiger
3-2 and we may struggle to make the NIT 
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:03 pm to Palm Beach Tiger
quote:
If we go 4 and 1 and win a tourny game we are on the bubble. 3 and 2 and we are out.
The thing about the bubble, is that LSU doesn't have one (so to speak). We are either going to finish in the top 5 of the SEC and get in; or we go 3 - 2 and get left out because of the "resume".
There is no bubble for LSU basketball.
Frick a RPI
Frick a Bubble
Frick Quality Wins
Just have to be one of the 5 SEC teams that get in. :logjam:
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:04 pm to saintsfan92612
quote:
3-2 and we may struggle to make the NIT
Nah, 3-2 will probably make the NIT, as long as one of those 2 Ls are @Ole Miss. Might be on the outside looking in if drop the USC and UGA games
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:07 pm to jrodLSUke
Sounds like we need to root hard against bama and miss st the rest of the way. They are ahead of us in standings and the rpi
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:11 pm to jrodLSUke
quote:
Just have to be one of the 5 SEC teams that get in
With the amount of decent mid majors this year I dont necessarily see 5 from the SE getting in. I think the selection committee will more likely still look at RPI, quality wins, bad losses, last 10, and where you finish in conference on 20% each basis.
If we can get our RPI down to the lower 50's or 40's I like our chances. We still need to finish in the top 4-5 in SEC. We need Marquette, Northwestern, and UVA to finish strong for sure.
I actually saw an article on ESPN saying if Northwestern can win 4 of their last 6 they are a shoe in... That would give us another win vs a tourney team. Marquette has looked solid. Rutgers blew the pooch in conference.
I'd love to see us play Vandy in the SEC tourney and beat them. I dont like our chances vs Kentucky or Florida, but I think we could beat Vandy and that would be a big win for us.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:12 pm to jrodLSUke
quote:
you can throw out all the typical "resume" talk that you hear on ESPN. LSU does not have the RPI nor quality wins; those things don't matter.
Yeah, they kinda do tend to matter. Bama went 12-4 in the SEC last year and didn't make the tournament.
If LSU wins out and finishes 10-6 in conf., they'll likely need to at least win 1 game in the SECT. IF that happens they will have a decent shot to make the NCAA's due to the fact that they were red-hot late in the season (See 2003 for reference)
If they finish 9-7, they will need to make some serious noise in the SECT (likely nothing short of the championship game). Plus it will depend on who that 7th conf loss was to, i.e. it better not be USC, UGA or Aub.
The middle of the SEC is starting to "cannibalize" itself. 5 teams from the SEC is not a given. Best thing for LSU right now (besides continuing to win) is to have the top 3 (UK, Fla. Vandy or Miss. St.) separate themselves from the pack, so that LSU would be in a "beauty contest" with the middle 3-4 teams.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:15 pm to SouthOfSouth
quote:
I actually saw an article on ESPN saying if Northwestern can win 4 of their last 6 they are a shoe in... That would give us another win vs a tourney team
The committee gives credit for "moral victories" now?
LSU lost to NW
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:16 pm to jrodLSUke
quote:
The thing about the bubble, is that LSU doesn't have one (so to speak). We are either going to finish in the top 5 of the SEC and get in; or we go 3 - 2 and get left out because of the "resume".
There is no bubble for LSU basketball.
Frick a RPI
Frick a Bubble
Frick Quality Wins
ask bama fans about RPI and being in top 5 of SEC, they were 12-4 in SEC last year and left out
RPI matters a lot to committee
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:17 pm to josh336
quote:
Sounds like we need to root hard against bama and miss st the rest of the way. They are ahead of us in standings and the rpi
Not necessarily, their RPI dropping might weaken the SEC and we may only see 3 SEC teams in.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:18 pm to Alt26
quote:
so that LSU would be in a "beauty contest" with the middle 3-4 teams.
Has nothing to do with it. It's not like the SEC is guaranteed a certain number of spots so LSU will need to be better than Alabama or Arkansas or Ole Miss or whoever. They compare teams on a national level, not within each conference. I'm sure you know that but if some other people are reading that, it's not like the SEC has 5 spots to fill and certain teams are battling for it. And by the way, with an RPI in the high 60s and no games left against teams with decent RPIs to boost it, LSU won't win many beauty contests.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:20 pm to Lloyd Christmas
quote:
RPI matters a lot to committee
Absolutely. If you look across the board last year (not just the Alabama thing) but at seedings and who else got in or got left out, RPI was the only thing they looked at.
Posted on 2/15/12 at 2:27 pm to Alt26
quote:
Bama went 12-4 in the SEC last year and didn't make the tournament.
The 2011 Bama team is the exception that proves the rule.
First, there were 5 SEC teams in last year. Bama simply was left out because the committee did not want 6 SEC teams in.
Secondly, everyone bashed the committee for leaving out Bama. They know they made a mistake and I think that is precisely what will protect the top 5 SEC this year.
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