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re: Predict the 12/31/2012 prices...(Winners on page 6)
Posted on 5/14/12 at 1:21 pm to LSURussian
Posted on 5/14/12 at 1:21 pm to LSURussian
The update really puts a lot of stuff in perspective. Equities rallied, steeper curve but lower on the 10-year. Oil lower, gold lower, silver higher, and lower Euro.
This further proves one thing that most people are aware of. Equities are priced on unicorns and rainbows.
This further proves one thing that most people are aware of. Equities are priced on unicorns and rainbows.
0
Posted on 12/18/12 at 10:13 am to LSURussian
Sorry to bump prematurely, but how is this going to be judged?
Posted on 12/18/12 at 10:15 am to C
I'd vote for average % error. Full disclosure: I have no skin in the game.
Posted on 12/18/12 at 10:27 am to bunky
Is each section weighted equally as well?
Posted on 12/18/12 at 10:57 am to C
quote:
Sorry to bump prematurely, but how is this going to be judged?
Take over. Use any metric you'd like to use.
ETA: It seems fair to me if we had a winner for each of the individual predictions using a percent deviation from actual 12/31/12 prices (levels) to the predicted figure.
I suppose an overall winner could be determined using the average percentage deviation from actual for all of the components. I'll set up a spreadsheet to do that. If anyone has a better idea, go for it.
This post was edited on 12/18/12 at 11:06 am
Posted on 12/18/12 at 11:16 am to LSURussian
quote:
If anyone has a better idea,
not me. Thanks.
Posted on 12/18/12 at 11:19 am to LSURussian
quote:
ETA: Note my post count. I saved it for the Money Talk Board.
I sure hope it wasn't 10,000!
Posted on 12/18/12 at 11:21 am to Meauxjeaux
It was 50,000.Posted on 12/18/12 at 11:24 am to LSURussian
Lol, haven't seen that benchmark very often. BTW, your dow is almost to the penny spot on.. 
Posted on 12/18/12 at 12:28 pm to Meauxjeaux
If these were the market indices year end closing levels as of this minute, I'd win the DJ30 at +0.65% deviation. Lynxcat would be 2nd at -0.85%.
On the 10yr bond rate, LSU0358 has nailed it so far. He predicted 1.80% and as of this minute it is.....drumroll, please......1.80%! ZERO deviation!
As of now, the largest deviation from actual (any category) is The Easter Bunny on the 10 yr rate. He predicted 3.75% for a deviation of 108.33%. Second highest deviation is goodgrin on the price of silver. He predicted $65.00 and the actual this minute is $31.86 for a deviation of -104.02%.
On the 10yr bond rate, LSU0358 has nailed it so far. He predicted 1.80% and as of this minute it is.....drumroll, please......1.80%! ZERO deviation!
As of now, the largest deviation from actual (any category) is The Easter Bunny on the 10 yr rate. He predicted 3.75% for a deviation of 108.33%. Second highest deviation is goodgrin on the price of silver. He predicted $65.00 and the actual this minute is $31.86 for a deviation of -104.02%.
Posted on 12/18/12 at 12:33 pm to LSURussian
I guess we aren't playing "price is right" rules. Can you put the spreadsheet in google to share?
Posted on 12/18/12 at 12:34 pm to LSURussian
Yeah, I didn't expect 10yr bond rates to change all that much with the Fed buying so much debt and keeping interest rates low.
PS, your Dow estimate is scarily accurate.
PS, your Dow estimate is scarily accurate.
Posted on 12/18/12 at 12:57 pm to C
quote:
Can you put the spreadsheet in google to share?
Sure. How do I do that?
quote:I think the absolute deviation from actual would be most accurate way.
I guess we aren't playing "price is right" rules.
I need to change my spreadsheet to put all percentages in a positive number regardless of if the prediction is over or under the actual and then take the average deviation for each person.
A +10% and a -10% deviation would average to a 0% total deviation but it should be a 10% average deviation, IMO.
Posted on 12/18/12 at 1:14 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Sure. How do I do that?
google documents, share. I can't access at work but I'll do it when i get home if no one jumps in before then.
Posted on 12/18/12 at 1:40 pm to LSURussian
quote:
On the 10yr bond rate, LSU0358 has nailed it so far. He predicted 1.80% and as of this minute it is.....drumroll, please......1.80%! ZERO deviation!
Thanks. My S&P and Dow is looking nice so far as well.
My commodity guesses, not so much. Though I think 2013 will be interesting. As a disclaimer, I bought some gold today.
Posted on 12/18/12 at 4:21 pm to C
It appears I have to have a Google account and sign in under it in order to place a spreadsheet on the share site. Is that correct?
If so, it's not going to happen. I don't put anything on Google except my searches.
For anyone who wants the spreadsheet, I can email it to you. Just give me your email address.
If so, it's not going to happen. I don't put anything on Google except my searches.
For anyone who wants the spreadsheet, I can email it to you. Just give me your email address.
Posted on 12/18/12 at 6:02 pm to LSURussian
Here are some highlights of the "Predict the Prices" as of the close of trading today, 12/18/12.
All percentages shown are the % deviations from the poster's prediction to the closing prices today.
DJ30: 13,350.69
Gold Medal: Lynxcat .74%
Silver Medal: LSURussian .75%
Bronze Medal: The Easter Bunny 1.12%
Boobie Prize: Tigress 16.11%
Oil: $87.97
Gold Medal: LSUtoOmaha .03%
Silver Medal: (TIE) LSURussian & Tigress 2.38%
Boobie Prize: udtiger 93.25%
10 year t-bond rate: 1.825%
Gold Medal: LSU0358 1.37%
Silver Medal: Projectpat 6.85%
Bronze Medal: (TIE) C, PlanoPrivateer, Tigress 9.59%
Boobie Prize: The Easter Bunny 105.48%
I'll give the final, complete results after 12.31.12.
All percentages shown are the % deviations from the poster's prediction to the closing prices today.
DJ30: 13,350.69
Gold Medal: Lynxcat .74%
Silver Medal: LSURussian .75%
Bronze Medal: The Easter Bunny 1.12%
Boobie Prize: Tigress 16.11%
Oil: $87.97
Gold Medal: LSUtoOmaha .03%
Silver Medal: (TIE) LSURussian & Tigress 2.38%
Boobie Prize: udtiger 93.25%
10 year t-bond rate: 1.825%
Gold Medal: LSU0358 1.37%
Silver Medal: Projectpat 6.85%
Bronze Medal: (TIE) C, PlanoPrivateer, Tigress 9.59%
Boobie Prize: The Easter Bunny 105.48%
I'll give the final, complete results after 12.31.12.
Posted on 12/18/12 at 6:37 pm to LSURussian
You don't have to have an account to use the document, just one to create I think. I'll create one in in a few minutes. Do you want me to send it to you or just post a link to it here? Just be aware if I put it on here, anyone can manipulate it. So I may lock it down after you post the data. Alternatively you can email it to me and I'll just add it. Let me know before I post my email.
Posted on 12/18/12 at 6:42 pm to C
I tried to put the spreadsheet I made onto the docs page but couldn't figure out how to do it without signing in.
Walk me through the process for a non-member to place a .xls file on it and I'll do it.
Walk me through the process for a non-member to place a .xls file on it and I'll do it.
This post was edited on 12/18/12 at 7:01 pm
Posted on 12/18/12 at 6:44 pm to foshizzle
quote:
ETA: I predict that on 12/31/2012 my post count will still not be that high.
I was 100% correct.
Or will be. Whatever.
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