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Started By
Message
re: QB Play: NOT the Major Problem w/the Offense (statistical support)
Posted on 4/21/10 at 10:46 am to meaux tigers
Posted on 4/21/10 at 10:46 am to meaux tigers
quote:
JJ's biggest problem in my eyes was putting a ball control offense in bad situations. Although he was only sacked a "few" more times than Flynn, JJ sacks were "drive killers".
What would be interesting to look at (and would take more time) is to look at real "drive killers."
I know, for instance, that against one team (Georgia, I believe), we ran it 3 consecutive times from inside the 5 and had to settle for a FG. That's pathetic. Yes, it does happen to everyone... but the troubling thing is it was a recurring theme with the offense.
quote:
I saw too many situations where manageable situations were turned into 2nd or 3rd and long. I'm not not refering to porous o-line sacks, I'm talking about "coverage" sacks. Porous o-line or not, a game manager can't take a coverage sack in a manageable situation.
This is true. Someone mentioned earlier, and I began to do it but decided it would take too much time, looking at 1st down stats and see what position we put our offense into.
I think I have a better idea of how to do that now.
What could be done is a little bit of research to see some percentages of how great your chances are increased of converting based on how much yardage is gained on first down.
1
Posted on 4/21/10 at 10:48 am to the LSUSaint
quote:
How many sacks did Flynn take like the one JJ took at Ole Miss that lost us the game?
NONE
And how many picks did JJ throw that cost us the game like Flynn did against Arkansas?
NONE.
Just sayin'... goes both ways.
Posted on 4/21/10 at 10:54 am to OBUDan
quote:
This is true. Someone mentioned earlier, and I began to do it but decided it would take too much time, looking at 1st down stats and see what position we put our offense into.
I think I have a better idea of how to do that now.
What could be done is a little bit of research to see some percentages of how great your chances are increased of converting based on how much yardage is gained on first down.
very telling stat. Spent some time at the 1aa level, and this is a huge point of emphasis on all staffs. How can we get to 2nd or 3rd and short and how can we keep them out of these situations.
Posted on 4/21/10 at 10:57 am to meaux tigers
quote:
Spent some time at the 1aa level, and this is a huge point of emphasis on all staffs. How can we get to 2nd or 3rd and short and how can we keep them out of these situations.
For sure.
I'll see if I can dig up some basic averages taken from samples across the board to use as my basis and then look at what JJ accomplished/didn't accomplish based off that.
Posted on 4/21/10 at 11:06 am to OBUDan
quote:
2007: 4/17, 23.50% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in passing attempts
2009: 5/14, 35.71% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in passing attempts
So Jefferson was actually better than Flynn in converting 3rd and short passing situations.
Now, the craziness:
2007: 35/41, 85% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in rushing attempts
2009: 23/35, 65.71% in conversions on 3rd and 4 or less in rushing attempts
How much of this disparity and the slightly better yards per attempt for Jefferson resulted from Jefferson's sacks being counted as rushing attempts instead of passing attempts?
Posted on 4/21/10 at 11:11 am to Nuts4LSU
quote:
How much of this disparity and the slightly better yards per attempt for Jefferson resulted from Jefferson's sacks being counted as rushing attempts instead of passing attempts?
I counted all sack as passing attempts.
Posted on 4/21/10 at 11:22 am to Common sence
quote:
It does not matter who the qb or the rb is if the oline can't block.
I said the same thing about those bitching about JJ, but I was flamed.
Did they watch the Saints the past two seasons and drew brees? He can't do shite when he has 3 seconds to get rid of the ball. If the oline improves, both RB and QB improves in my opinion. It is that critical.
Posted on 4/21/10 at 12:24 pm to OBUDan
quote:
The glaring difference between the 2007 offense and 2009 offense is the rushing attack, which is exactly what the analysis set out to prove.
You went into this analysis with an agenda. And you picked stats that supported what you already believed. You left out the sacks data which showed JJ got sacked at twice the rate of Flynn and was one of JJ's major problems.
Also we had so many fewer plays in 2009. If you were really trying to figure out what was wrong with the offense instead of "proving" what you already thought maybe you should check the data on percentage of drives that were less than 3-5 plays. And I agree with the guy who said this comparison was silly. They are interesting numbers but they dont scratch the surface of all the factors. What was the average gain on plays where the qb checked into a different play. How did the opposing d-coordinator play 3rd and shorts. They respected Flynn's ability to pass, did they respect JJ. You cannot know these things. And stats can be manipulated.
QB A faces 3rd and 9 three times. He throws passes of 10,11, and 12 yards and completes the 11 yarder.
QB B faces 3rd and 9 three times. He throws passes of 6,7, and eight yards and completes all three.
QB A 33% completion percentage, 11 yards, 3.8 yards per attempt
QB B 100% completion percentage, 21 yards, 7 yards per attempt.
QB B wins the statistics in the box score but sucks as a QB.
Posted on 4/21/10 at 12:33 pm to Mayhawman
quote:
I say the team avg 31ppg in spite of JL in '08.
Shows what a rushing attack will do for us. See OP's breakdown.
Subtract sack yardage and the statistics show that we averaged over 4 yards per carry in our rushing game.
quote:
QB B wins the statistics in the box score but sucks as a QB.
Except in the OPs case he listed 1st down conversion percentages on short passes, long passes, and rushing situations.
Also.. how can you claim that teams respected Flynn but also claim that it is impossible to know if teams respect Jefferson?
This post was edited on 4/21/10 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 4/21/10 at 1:00 pm to ryanlsu
quote:
You went into this analysis with an agenda.
No, I didn't. I went into the analysis trying to see if my preconceived notions about the troubles of the run game would be confirmed through their production on 3rd down. I wasn't sure how it would be proved one way or another.
If by an agenda you mean attempting to understand in some sense why we struggled, then sure, I had an agenda.
quote:
You left out the sacks data which showed JJ got sacked at twice the rate of Flynn and was one of JJ's major problems.
Twice the rate is a gross exaggeration. Flynn's rate per attempt: 1 sack/13.8 pass attempts. JJ: 1 sack/8.7 pass attempts.
I also factored sacks into the passing stats, so even with JJ's increased sacks he still performed better or marginally worse than Flynn...
quote:
Also we had so many fewer plays in 2009. If you were really trying to figure out what was wrong with the offense instead of "proving" what you already thought maybe you should check the data on percentage of drives that were less than 3-5 plays.
You, and many posters are completely missing the point of the thread. For some reason people think the concept was to prove JJ was a great QB. I said from the outset that he wasn't. The POINT was to prove that we had disastrous running game production. In fact, it was 20% less effective on 3rd down, which resulted in many of those 3-5 play drives you talked about, thus resulting in fewer plays.
quote:
They are interesting numbers but they dont scratch the surface of all the factors.
Of course it doesn't scratch the surface of all factors. I said as much...
quote:
What was the average gain on plays where the qb checked into a different play. How did the opposing d-coordinator play 3rd and shorts. They respected Flynn's ability to pass, did they respect JJ. You cannot know these things. And stats can be manipulated.
And you can't know them either... so it's impossible to quantify. Of course I can only work with the data at hand...
quote:
QB A faces 3rd and 9 three times. He throws passes of 10,11, and 12 yards and completes the 11 yarder.
QB B faces 3rd and 9 three times. He throws passes of 6,7, and eight yards and completes all three.
QB A 33% completion percentage, 11 yards, 3.8 yards per attempt
QB B 100% completion percentage, 21 yards, 7 yards per attempt.
QB B wins the statistics in the box score but sucks as a QB.
This is such a poor example I don't even know where to start.
For one, you show that you're missing the point of the thread.
Secondly, I gave an overview of both QBs performance in their statistical entirety, which still favored JJ. So it's not like I picked 3 remote stats JJ was better in while ignoring everything else...
This post was edited on 4/21/10 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 4/21/10 at 1:01 pm to bmy
Actually I dont know if they respected Flynn. Thanks for pointing that out. That was one of the main parts of my post. Too many variables that you cant know. But the OP was trying to prove his preconceived notion. Someone trying to show that JJ was a big part of the offensive woes would point to sacks, 3 and outs, needless timeouts, and not checking into the right plays.
And his third down stats showed Flynn was good for a couple extra third down conversions a game. Which can easily make the difference in a close game.
And the examples were just to show how stats can be manipulated. But I dont think you will get anyone who knows anything about football to disagree that the qb has a major effect on the running game. The saints were 6th in rushing offense last year. If Brees goes down in the first game and Brunell is qb does anyone think we will be 6th again.
And his third down stats showed Flynn was good for a couple extra third down conversions a game. Which can easily make the difference in a close game.
And the examples were just to show how stats can be manipulated. But I dont think you will get anyone who knows anything about football to disagree that the qb has a major effect on the running game. The saints were 6th in rushing offense last year. If Brees goes down in the first game and Brunell is qb does anyone think we will be 6th again.
Posted on 4/21/10 at 1:04 pm to ryanlsu
quote:
And his third down stats showed Flynn was good for a couple extra third down conversions a game. Which can easily make the difference in a close game.
The rush attack was good for a couple extra third downs. Flynn was actually worse than JJ in passing in 3rd and shorts.
quote:
But I dont think you will get anyone who knows anything about football to disagree that the qb has a major effect on the running game. The saints were 6th in rushing offense last year. If Brees goes down in the first game and Brunell is qb does anyone think we will be 6th again.
So you think the loss of a QB will make an entire run game half as productive and 20% less effective on third downs?
Posted on 4/21/10 at 1:23 pm to ryanlsu
quote:
The saints were 6th in rushing offense last year. If Brees goes down in the first game and Brunell is qb does anyone think we will be 6th again.
being that the major improvement that the saints made last year was the running game I think the running game would still have been a good one. I mean, where was the running game the year before? Maybe if Brees had gone down we would have run the ball more. Look at the jets.
I am not going to argue that this would definitely happen. But if you are gong to throw hypatheticals out there then you need to at least look at both sides.
Posted on 4/21/10 at 1:33 pm to OBUDan
quote:
No, I didn't. I went into the analysis trying to see if my preconceived notions about the troubles of the run game would be confirmed through their production on 3rd down. I wasn't sure how it would be proved one way or another.
quote:
The glaring difference between the 2007 offense and 2009 offense is the rushing attack, which is exactly what the analysis set out to prove.
That is what you said. You set out to prove what you already believed.
quote:
Twice the rate is a gross exaggeration. Flynn's rate per attempt: 1 sack/13.8 pass attempts. JJ: 1 sack/8.7 pass attempts.
I was going by sacks per offensive play. If there is an outside blitz coming and Flynn recognizes it and checks to a running play up the middle then he gets penalized for checking out of a bad play the way you are doing it.
quote:
For some reason people think the concept was to prove JJ was a great QB. I said from the outset that he wasn't. The POINT was to prove that we had disastrous running game production.
I get that point. Im saying after watching every game we played at least twice I think JJ was one of the main problems leading to the disastrous running game.
quote:
Of course it doesn't scratch the surface of all factors. I said as much...
You did say it but then you act like the data proves something. If the data you have admittedly doesnt even scratch the surface of the factors leading to our putrid offense then it doesnt prove anything.
quote:
Secondly, I gave an overview of both QBs performance in their statistical entirety, which still favored JJ.
And I cant think of a single lsu player, coach, or fan with a brain who would take JJ 2009 over Flynn 2007. Most people would realize there is something wrong with the data they chose to use in that case. When your conclusion is the opposite of what all knowledgable football people think then its either your conclusion is wrong or everybody else is.
Posted on 4/21/10 at 1:37 pm to ryanlsu
quote:
And I cant think of a single lsu player, coach, or fan with a brain who would take JJ 2009 over Flynn 2007.
I give up...
Posted on 4/21/10 at 1:43 pm to ryanlsu
quote:
That is what you said. You set out to prove what you already believed.
Ok, I worded that poorly. What I meant was, I went into the statistics expecting to show poor run game production. And they did. That's still not an "agenda." If it had shown that the 2009 run game was 2x as productive as the 2007 run game, I would have put that.
quote:
I was going by sacks per offensive play. If there is an outside blitz coming and Flynn recognizes it and checks to a running play up the middle then he gets penalized for checking out of a bad play the way you are doing it.
You can't use total plays because neither Flynn nor JJ played every offensive snap for their team.
quote:
You did say it but then you act like the data proves something. If the data you have admittedly doesnt even scratch the surface of the factors leading to our putrid offense then it doesnt prove anything.
That's not true. People use portions of data to suggest overall trends all the time. I'd venture to say there isn't a single piece of statistical analysis that can account for every factor.... it's impossible.
quote:
When your conclusion is the opposite of what all knowledgable football people think then its either your conclusion is wrong or everybody else is.
Data often proves that majority opinions are foolish and wrong. Just sayin...
Posted on 4/21/10 at 1:48 pm to ryanlsu
quote:
ryanlsu
In actuality, what you are arguing makes very little sense from a statistical standpoint.
You are claiming that Flynn checked the offense out of bad plays and into good plays, thus the disparity between the rush games. Besides the fact that it's such an enormous gap that that seems highly unlikely, then why didn't it positively affect the passing game as much as well?
I mean, theoretically, if Flynn does such a great job of checking into great plays while JJ does poor job of it, shouldn't Flynn's passing numbers be off the charts better than JJ's?
Posted on 4/21/10 at 2:01 pm to OBUDan
quote:
You can't use total plays because neither Flynn nor JJ played every offensive snap for their team
so both of our ways are flawed.
quote:
That's not true. People use portions of data to suggest overall trends all the time. I'd venture to say there isn't a single piece of statistical analysis that can account for every factor.... it's impossible.
I agree I just feel a lot of data is missing and cant even be quantified. There were some formations last year where me and every single person around me knew what play was coming. Is that bc we only could run 3 to 4 plays from that formation bc we condensed the playbook for JJ. The Arkansas game in 08 we had a tight end wide open down the middle of the field 3 times. The entire ark stadium held their breath in unison and then all sighed as jj completed a 5 yard screen. How do you put missed receivers into your analysis.
And I get what you are trying to say, but after watching the bowl game and spring game recently, I see nothing in your data that makes me optimistic about our qb play this year. And im not even a jj hater. I think he may give us the best chance to win. When he makes a great play I will cheer and when he makes a dumb play I will down my drink and try not to cuss if their are ladies around.
I like debating lsu football and Im not getting mad but it is kinda like a chicken and the egg question. Is it the passing games fault that the running game sucked bc we couldnt relieve any of the pressure. Or did the passing game suck bc the running game never got going.
And I could pick some data points like:
breast size, amount of money, where she wants to live, if she wants to have any more kids to make Kate gosselin look comparable to keira knightly but it doesnt make it so.
This post was edited on 4/21/10 at 2:15 pm
Posted on 4/21/10 at 2:25 pm to OBUDan
I deal with "data" all day long and I know that if given enough time and numbers I can "prove" nearly anything. Just sayin. I suggest that you decided before you started that a poor running game was the main reason for the inept offense. I believe that both the line and the quarterback play was poor, as was apparently the coaching, which was unable to correct or improve those weaknesses on the team. To smugly suggest that those who think otherwise are "foolish and wrong" suggests that you put too much faith in your numbers. I suppose that I must foolishly remain unconvinced by your argument.
Posted on 4/21/10 at 2:57 pm to ryanlsu
quote:
And I get what you are trying to say, but after watching the bowl game and spring game recently, I see nothing in your data that makes me optimistic about our qb play this year. And im not even a jj hater. I think he may give us the best chance to win. When he makes a great play I will cheer and when he makes a dumb play I will down my drink and try not to cuss if their are ladies around.
I like debating lsu football and Im not getting mad but it is kinda like a chicken and the egg question. Is it the passing games fault that the running game sucked bc we couldnt relieve any of the pressure. Or did the passing game suck bc the running game never got going.
And I could pick some data points like:
breast size, amount of money, where she wants to live, if she wants to have any more kids to make Kate gosselin look comparable to keira knightly but it doesnt make it so.
I'm glad you rebutted. I asked for opinions, so it's good to not just have everyone say, "Oh this is awesome."
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