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re: QB Play: NOT the Major Problem w/the Offense (statistical support)
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:31 pm to TheDoc
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:31 pm to TheDoc
Great read man. I've always felt that Jefferson was a good QB. He just needs a bigger grip on the offense. To look at our last game in the Cap One Bowl against Penn St he threw for 204 yards and a TD and our rushing game had only 84 yards. Thats pathetic.
With our running game back (I think) and a new O-line our offense can be good enough to win games, sustain drives, and give our defense a rest.
With our running game back (I think) and a new O-line our offense can be good enough to win games, sustain drives, and give our defense a rest.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:35 pm to Tigerloo
quote:
Now factor in how many more plays Flynn's offense ran and he still took fewer sacks.
You got my curiousity up, so I researched it.
Flynn '07 sacks - 2.7% of plays resulted in a sack
JJ '09 sacks - 5% of plays resulted in a sack
Thats a quite a difference. Plus the '07 offense ran 1054 plays against tougher defenses. '09 only ran 771. Thats also quite a difference
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:36 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Quarterbacks job is to move the offense consistently and get in the end zone. I say we have two who haven't done this. Stats don't mean shite. Throwing the ball 5 yards when you need ten is an easy completion any day of the week.
Lee averaged like 31 PPG didn't he? That's consistent.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:38 pm to TIGRLEE
quote:
FWIW, JL was under same if not more pressure than JJ in that scrimmage.
Why is this relevant? JL played like shite too. Jefferson has at least proved to be decent and at least a game manager.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:41 pm to bmy
quote:
Lee averaged like 31 PPG didn't he? That's consistent.
Lee moved the football but had his own set of problems which I mentioned, consistency.
Both QB's have shown the inability to read a defense and the mistakes each makes is just compensation for that lack of defensive recognition.
JJ's best game last year was against Washington and his confidence went downhill from there.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:50 pm to RobbBobb
quote:
Plus the '07 offense ran 1054 plays against tougher defenses. '
The defenses weren't tougher.
You can look at the stats I have on the first post.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:52 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
JJ's best game last year was against Washington
Naw.
Auburn: 21/31, 242 yards, 2 TD, 1 rushing TD
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:57 pm to OBUDan
quote:
Naw.
Auburn: 21/31, 242 yards, 2 TD, 1 rushing TD
UDub ....11-19, averaged over 9 YPP and 3 tds. Offensive gameplan sucked in the second half. Auburn pass defense was awful.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:57 pm to OBUDan
Lots of interesting stats (thanks for the effort).
But if the takeaway point is supposed to be that JJ is as good as Flynn then I would question the overall approach.
There were games in '07 (e.g., Bama) where we didn't run the ball that well and Matt did a great job chunking it. Flynn's understanding of the O and decision making was way ahead of JJ.
If it's just to point out that the OL was bigger problem than QB - ok. They really didn't complement one another but they're both big problems.
But if the takeaway point is supposed to be that JJ is as good as Flynn then I would question the overall approach.
There were games in '07 (e.g., Bama) where we didn't run the ball that well and Matt did a great job chunking it. Flynn's understanding of the O and decision making was way ahead of JJ.
If it's just to point out that the OL was bigger problem than QB - ok. They really didn't complement one another but they're both big problems.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 10:58 pm to bmy
quote:
Lee averaged like 31 PPG didn't he?
For the opponent?
Seriously, since when did any QB average 31ppg? Was it one on one?
This is the fallacy OP is trying to bring to light.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 11:02 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
UDub ....11-19, averaged over 9 YPP and 3 tds. Offensive gameplan sucked in the second half. Auburn pass defense was awful.
11/19 = 58%,
21/31 = 68%,
Auburn pass d = 57th in the nation
Washington pass d = 93rd in the nation
One of his long TDs against Washington was a short pass turned into a big play, so that explains the bigger YPA.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 11:03 pm to AlwysATgr
quote:
Flynn's understanding of the O and decision making was way ahead of JJ.
One point I didn't see mentioned was Flynn's maturity level in '07 vs JJ '09. I'm sure this won't take off the blinders of the naysayers though.
It's been said 1/2 a million times and hasn't sunk in yet.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 11:04 pm to AlwysATgr
quote:
But if the takeaway point is supposed to be that JJ is as good as Flynn then I would question the overall approach.
It's not. The point was that our running game sucked last year, basically. And there's not much difference from a production standpoint between Flynn and JJ.
quote:
There were games in '07 (e.g., Bama) where we didn't run the ball that well and Matt did a great job chunking it.
He threw 3 picks that game and was a big reason we needed a 4th quarter comeback to win it (though he did make plays down the stretch to give us the victory and atone for his mistakes).
This post was edited on 4/20/10 at 11:05 pm
Posted on 4/20/10 at 11:06 pm to OBUDan
quote:
The defenses weren't tougher.
You can look at the stats I have on the first post.
Stats in CFB are meaningless across years and even within a give year in many cases. First of all, no one team plays a statistically relevant percentage of the competition to put stats on an even playing field. While many teams play a similar schedule year after year, the turnover and growth rates for these young kids make comparison across years pretty irrelevant.
Stats give you one perspective only - they are not conclusive. Any team that finishes ranked in the top 25% in offensive stats is pretty good. Any team that finishes in the bottom 10% in offensive stats has almost no redeeming qualities. It is amazing to me that LSU won more games than it lost last year with that pathetic offense - a football miracle if I ever saw one, but because it occurred over the course of a whole season it will not get the recognition of a successful hail mary pass completion.
We can all argue until the cows come home whether it was the QB or the OL or the running backs or the WR's or the coaches or the weather or the hot dogs in the concession stand, but the fact is that none of those components was able to make the others any better, which is what a team game is all about.
When somebody steps up on the team or coaching staff and says the status quo is not good enough and there is a better way and is willing to outwork the competition to attain the top of the mountain, LSU will be there again.
Until then, I still would rather be in TS on Saturday night than anywhere else.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 11:09 pm to OBUDan
JJ was actually clutch in the Washington game. Auburn was a blowout. AU didn't even attempt a pass defense.
3 td's in the clutch > 2 in a blowout. Third down conversion rate was also 50% in the Washington game.
JJ or Lee ain't Flynn. Neither QB has the leadership skills or the ability to read a defense like Flynn did in '07.
JJ's lack of INT's are most likely from the fact he doesn't normally throw the freaking football within 5 yards of a defender, which also limits the offense.
LSU offense sucked last year. Hope its better this year but there is no sense in dressing up a crappy performance last season.
3 td's in the clutch > 2 in a blowout. Third down conversion rate was also 50% in the Washington game.
JJ or Lee ain't Flynn. Neither QB has the leadership skills or the ability to read a defense like Flynn did in '07.
JJ's lack of INT's are most likely from the fact he doesn't normally throw the freaking football within 5 yards of a defender, which also limits the offense.
LSU offense sucked last year. Hope its better this year but there is no sense in dressing up a crappy performance last season.
This post was edited on 4/20/10 at 11:13 pm
Posted on 4/20/10 at 11:10 pm to Mayhawman
quote:
One point I didn't see mentioned was Flynn's maturity level in '07 vs JJ '09. I'm sure this won't take off the blinders of the naysayers though.
It's been said 1/2 a million times and hasn't sunk in yet.
I think everyone here knows Flynn was a 5th yr Sr in '07 while JJ was a true Soph in '09 so I (and most others) wouldn't expect JJ to be as mature as was Flynn in all respects.
But when Flynn started against UM in the '05 bowl (RS soph), he had a pittance of the PT that JJ did when he started vs. PSU (his 15th game as a starter). Now tell me who showed the better decision making, etc?
I'm not against JJ at all but if the point of the thread was to suggest (via stats) that JJ in '09 was comparable to Flynn in '07 then the very method is flawed.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 11:14 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
JJ's best game last year was against Washington and his confidence went downhill from there.
Tell that to Auburn. 31-10
21 of 31 for 250 yds and 2 TDs. 30 yds rushing and a TD.
A 68% completion rate and 12 yds per completion.
All against an SEC team that went to a ball game.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 11:15 pm to OBUDan
Ik he was a fith yr senior but I would take Flynn over JJ anyday to quarterback my team. It was a good breakdown but you failed to present how Flynns style of play complimented with Crowtons offense. For instance Flynn could throw the deep ball, forcing the dbs and lbs to think pass first, this opened up our running game with hester and scott. Also you failed to realize how Flynn spread the the ball to many different reciever(Richard Dickson, who I dont think caught 5 passes last yr, along with backs out the backfield) where as JJ just looked at 2 guys basically. But all this being said I still think that JJ can be just as good, he just needs to spend more time in the film room learning the qb position, and he just needs to make plays when we need him to like Flynn did numerous amounts of time in 07.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 11:16 pm to OBUDan
WOW..........what a great post.
just the facts.
thanks,
lots of positive vibes for this year.
just the facts.
thanks,
lots of positive vibes for this year.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 11:25 pm to AlwysATgr
Yeah, I really have a hard time acknowledging the significance of this thread.
Matt#### makes a pretty good argument for why Flynn shouldn't be discussed in addressing our offensive woes last season.
It's really just semantics when trying to blame the offensive line/ running game more than the poor QB play. Half dozen of one, six of the other.
The spring game only solidified the lack of improvement during the course of the season for me. You're in shotgun most of the time with four and five wide routinely, and you can't run a two minute drill?
Jefferson will never get the opposition's respect as a runner, or as a deep passing threat. There is no timing between Jefferson and his receivers, and it shows. Coaching may be the biggest reason for this. I don't really know.
I do know Jefferson requires a shite load of separation between his receiver and the defender to consider throwing a ball further than five yards past the LOS. For Jefferson to have any YPA, the receivers are going to have to make people miss.
I try to remember some past plays where we were successful in stretching the field and forcing defenses to respect our downfield passing game, but I just can't jar the memory enough. First play of the second half against Miss. St. maybe.
Hell, we couldn't throw a Hail Mary right against Ole Miss. Watching Jefferson try to complete go routes is the only thing more painful than watching him trying to run the option. Think about how many times wide open LSU receivers (I recall Lafell on the same route at least four times) had to wait on the ball and/or catch it below their knees, usually on first down.
Any chance of developing better timing with our receiving corps probably goes out the window when you look at the experience we have returning. A better offensive line and rushing game should take more of the spotlight off of Jefferson having to make big plays, but I don't like our chances if and when the better teams force us in these situations.
Matt#### makes a pretty good argument for why Flynn shouldn't be discussed in addressing our offensive woes last season.
It's really just semantics when trying to blame the offensive line/ running game more than the poor QB play. Half dozen of one, six of the other.
The spring game only solidified the lack of improvement during the course of the season for me. You're in shotgun most of the time with four and five wide routinely, and you can't run a two minute drill?
Jefferson will never get the opposition's respect as a runner, or as a deep passing threat. There is no timing between Jefferson and his receivers, and it shows. Coaching may be the biggest reason for this. I don't really know.
I do know Jefferson requires a shite load of separation between his receiver and the defender to consider throwing a ball further than five yards past the LOS. For Jefferson to have any YPA, the receivers are going to have to make people miss.
I try to remember some past plays where we were successful in stretching the field and forcing defenses to respect our downfield passing game, but I just can't jar the memory enough. First play of the second half against Miss. St. maybe.
Hell, we couldn't throw a Hail Mary right against Ole Miss. Watching Jefferson try to complete go routes is the only thing more painful than watching him trying to run the option. Think about how many times wide open LSU receivers (I recall Lafell on the same route at least four times) had to wait on the ball and/or catch it below their knees, usually on first down.
Any chance of developing better timing with our receiving corps probably goes out the window when you look at the experience we have returning. A better offensive line and rushing game should take more of the spotlight off of Jefferson having to make big plays, but I don't like our chances if and when the better teams force us in these situations.
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