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strength of schedule complaints
Posted on 5/26/09 at 7:52 am
Posted on 5/26/09 at 7:52 am
many people on the rant whine about lsu's "weak" ooc sos. i've glanced through some sos statistics and it looks to me like the teams with a stronger sos component end up either ranked lower than lsu at the end of the season or are relatively irrelevant in relation to the elite. there may be some exceptions to this but, on the whole it doesn't propel a team to the ncg. play usc at the beginning of the season and you might suffer a loss somewhere down the line in the sec schedule that you would have otherwise won had you not scheduled that "fun" opponent early on.
let's face it; make the schedule harder and lsu doesn't even have a chance to challenge for the national championship. right now, lsu is like several other schools that have a chance at the beginning of the season to contend for the national championship - they've struck a balance between difficulty and number of wins necessary to stay in contention. to ask lsu to schedule another great team is to ask lsu to do something other "elite" teams are rarely, if ever, willing to do.
and lay off verge, he's probably only doing what he's asked to do. it's likely that he can't schedule anyone without the approval of several people above him.
let's face it; make the schedule harder and lsu doesn't even have a chance to challenge for the national championship. right now, lsu is like several other schools that have a chance at the beginning of the season to contend for the national championship - they've struck a balance between difficulty and number of wins necessary to stay in contention. to ask lsu to schedule another great team is to ask lsu to do something other "elite" teams are rarely, if ever, willing to do.
and lay off verge, he's probably only doing what he's asked to do. it's likely that he can't schedule anyone without the approval of several people above him.
7
Posted on 5/26/09 at 8:47 am to bfniii
Thanks for the report Verge .... 
Posted on 5/26/09 at 8:55 am to Rade
quote:i wish i was in his shoes. i bet he makes ALOT more money than i do. then again, i would have to face the wrath of the rant!
Thanks for the report Verge
Posted on 5/26/09 at 8:56 am to bfniii
the strength of schedule argument is really bogus in today's college football. The argument really is the degree of difficulty in going undefeated. If team A plays opponents ranked 8th and 99th, while team B plays opponents ranked 30th and 40th, from a pure average standpoint, B has the tougher "schedule". However, A has a higher probability of being 1-1 after the two games.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 8:58 am to ForeLSU
"If team A plays opponents ranked 8th and 99th, while team B plays opponents ranked 30th and 40th, from a pure average standpoint, B has the tougher "schedule". However, A has a higher probability of being 1-1 after the two games."
Proof please.....
Proof please.....
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:10 am to Rade
i'm not a college football scheduler but, i would imagine scheduling is seen as mitigating the risk of not going undefeated. i'm sure they have risk assesments that show percentages of win/loss record vs what they know of the ooc teams on the schedule prior to the season. given that their hands are tied with the sec schedule, i'm sure they try to assess what it would take to keep them in the top 3rd of sos in the country, which they've done very successfully this decade. the rest is up to the football gods.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:14 am to bfniii
quote:
i'm not a college football scheduler but, i would imagine scheduling is seen as mitigating the risk of not going undefeated.
I'm not a schedulaer either, but I bet that the only concern of the athletic depatment is to put butts in the seats at Tiger Stadium and charging premium fees while bringing in the likes of ULL, McNeese, Tulane, La Tech, Middle Tenn, and Appy State just doesn't seem like the thing to do.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:18 am to TigersRuleTheEarth
quote:
I'm not a schedulaer either, but I bet that the only concern of the athletic depatment is to put butts in the seats at Tiger Stadium and charging premium fees while bringing in the likes of ULL, McNeese, Tulane, La Tech, Middle Tenn, and Appy State just doesn't seem like the thing to do.
While it may not be fair, or what most fans wanna see, you have to admit it still gives LSU a great chance at a title and they still sell out those season tickets, so it works.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:23 am to TigersRuleTheEarth
quote:The fact is, we need a couple of cupcakes each year on our schedule. And in state cupcakes sell more tickets than out of state ones.
but I bet that the only concern of the athletic depatment is to put butts in the seats at Tiger Stadium and charging premium fees while bringing in the likes of ULL, McNeese, Tulane, La Tech, Middle Tenn, and Appy State just doesn't seem like the thing to do.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:34 am to Rade
quote:
Proof please.....
I can't readily find a database to fully document stats...but let's take an average team that has a decent chance at being ranked 8th over the past 30 years (Alabama), and one that has a decent chance at being ranked 30th (Ole Miss).
The top 5 teams in the SEC (outside of bama) that have won championships over this time period have the following records....
vs. Bama 57-55-2
vs. Ole Miss 76-34-1
Therefore, I conclude that losing to the 8th ranked team has a higher probability than losing to the 30th ranked team.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 9:50 am to TigersRuleTheEarth
quote:i doubt very seriously this is their only concern. giving the team the best chance for meaningful postseason play greatly increases revenue and merchandising, both of which are huge to the ath dept just as home games are.
I'm not a schedulaer either, but I bet that the only concern of the athletic depatment is to put butts in the seats at Tiger Stadium and charging premium fees while bringing in the likes of ULL, McNeese, Tulane, La Tech, Middle Tenn, and Appy State just doesn't seem like the thing to do.
also, only a handful of school sell more season tickets than lsu. therefore, scheduling "lightweights" doesn't have any effect on those presold tickets.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 4:13 pm to bfniii
quote:
and lay off verge, he's probably only doing what he's asked to do. it's likely that he can't schedule anyone without the approval of several people above him.
Then let the "several people above him" do the football scheduling and re-assign Verge to another job in the AD......
Posted on 5/26/09 at 4:22 pm to bfniii
quote:
and lay off verge, he's probably only doing what he's asked to do. it's likely that he can't schedule anyone without the approval of several people above him.
Then Verge and the several people above him should all be taken to task. ULL comes to Tiger Stadium on 9/19. Anyone excited? Have this game marked on your calendar? Expect Gameday to be here? Now imagine if Ohio State or Texas or hell, even Boise State were coming to Baton Rouge on that date. We'd have a game the entire nation would be watching. Instead we have the chili peppers. Yea
Posted on 5/26/09 at 4:54 pm to bfniii
quote:
make the schedule harder and lsu doesn't even have a chance to challenge for the national championship
Like in 2007 when playing Virginia Tech early in the season knocked us out of the chance to win the NC, right?
quote:
to ask lsu to schedule another great team is to ask lsu to do something other "elite" teams are rarely, if ever, willing to do
In 2008, every SEC team played a non-conference opponent from another BCS conference...except LSU. In 2008, every team that finished in the top ten of either the AP or Coaches poll played a non-conference opponent from a BCS conference. Other elite teams are doing it. We should be, too.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 5:20 pm to wilfont
quote:you must have missed my earlier post where i addressed these issues
Then Verge and the several people above him should all be taken to task. ULL comes to Tiger Stadium on 9/19. Anyone excited? Have this game marked on your calendar? Expect Gameday to be here? Now imagine if Ohio State or Texas or hell, even Boise State were coming to Baton Rouge on that date. We'd have a game the entire nation would be watching. Instead we have the chili peppers. Yea
Posted on 5/26/09 at 5:31 pm to wilfont
quote:
Then Verge and the several people above him should all be taken to task. ULL comes to Tiger Stadium on 9/19. Anyone excited? Have this game marked on your calendar? Expect Gameday to be here? Now imagine if Ohio State or Texas or hell, even Boise State were coming to Baton Rouge on that date. We'd have a game the entire nation would be watching. Instead we have the chili peppers. Yea
It just depends if you're a fan of watching great football games or great football seasons. I personally prefer the latter.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 5:36 pm to Nuts4LSU
quote:that's not what people are asking for. they want ALL of the cupcakes off the schedule. it's not reasonable.
Like in 2007 when playing Virginia Tech early in the season knocked us out of the chance to win the NC, right?
furthermore, you know that it's a huge, huge risk playing a team of that caliber. it happened to work out but it could have easily backfired. there goes your championship. most years, the elite teams aren't going to repeatedly take those risks like lsu fans want and the ones that do don't usually end up with a shot at the ncg
quote:but does that happen every year? no.
In 2008, every SEC team played a non-conference opponent from another BCS conference...except LSU
quote:and aside from florida, only bama was from the sec. teams from other conferences HAVE to have that game. sec teams don't.
In 2008, every team that finished in the top ten of either the AP or Coaches poll played a non-conference opponent from a BCS conference.
quote:because they have to in order to have any shot at an elite sos.
Other elite teams are doing it.
quote:not necessarily, as i have shown
We should be, too.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 5:44 pm to bfniii
quote:
bfniii
People that are in favor of 4 cupcakes on the schedule because they want a national championship, piss me off.
Posted on 5/26/09 at 6:12 pm to Rade
quote:
"If team A plays opponents ranked 8th and 99th, while team B plays opponents ranked 30th and 40th, from a pure average standpoint, B has the tougher "schedule". However, A has a higher probability of being 1-1 after the two games."
Proof please.....
# of teams favored in both games against teams ranked 8th and 99th= 7.
91 teams expected to go 1-1.
19 teams expected to go 0-2.
# of teams favored in both games against teams ranked 30th and 40th= 29.
9 teams expected to go 1-1.
79 expected to go 0-2.
Not that difficult to understand.
This post was edited on 5/26/09 at 6:13 pm
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