Dont worry about this damn invest 96L soon to be Cristobal or Dolly?

I hope this is not another Labor day hurricane




Forecast for 96L
The wave should pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday night or Friday morning, then track west to west-northwest through the Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. The 12Z Tuesday run of the GFS and European models showed 96L tracking through the Central Caribbean early next week, and arriving in the Western Caribbean on Tuesday. The UKMET model showed a more northerly component of motion, with a path over Hispaniola. Two of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET and GFS models, predicted that 96L would develop into a tropical storm after passing through the Lesser Antilles. When both of these models show development, the odds increase that development will occur. The UKMET model showed 96L developing on Saturday, and the GFS showed it developing on Friday. Given the presence of so much dry air near the disturbance, the risk of development is low through Wednesday, but development odds will increase on Thursday as ocean temperatures warm and the atmosphere becomes moister. The 2 pm EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. In their 2 pm EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 40%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance on Thursday afternoon, if necessary. If 96L does develop, it would likely be similar to Tropical Storm Bertha of early August while it is in the Caribbean--a weak and disorganized system that struggles against dry air.

A second disturbance near 13°N, 39°W, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, also has a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms with some modest rotation. In their 2 pm EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 20%, respectively. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict that this disturbance will develop over the next five days as it heads west-northwest at about 10 mph.