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Started By
Message
re: Tropical Storm Colin - Earliest 3rd Storm on Record
Posted on 6/3/16 at 8:14 am to Paul Allen
Posted on 6/3/16 at 8:14 am to Paul Allen
quote:
Not looking good for Tampa
2
Posted on 6/3/16 at 3:21 pm to rds dc
First round of models runs out at 18z:
Posted on 6/3/16 at 4:02 pm to Paul Allen
Invest 93-L, ladies and gentlemen
Posted on 6/4/16 at 9:39 am to Jim Rockford
NHC is giving this a high chance of becoming Colin, would be 3rd earliest system on record. This appears to be a pretty classic MJO driving early season development. As the MJO moves through the region upper level divergence is enhanced (blue areas below).
This also flips the easterly low level winds and allows westerly anomalies to increase. This helps to deevelop a broad area low level cyclonic vorticity across the area.
Typically this type of setup produces a high shear environment across the Gulf of Mexico, we end up with lopsided storms, and Colin will probably look at lot like past systems.
This also flips the easterly low level winds and allows westerly anomalies to increase. This helps to deevelop a broad area low level cyclonic vorticity across the area.
Typically this type of setup produces a high shear environment across the Gulf of Mexico, we end up with lopsided storms, and Colin will probably look at lot like past systems.
Posted on 6/4/16 at 9:42 am to rds dc
De-Mobing non essentials as we speak, baws
Posted on 6/4/16 at 2:08 pm to DaTroof
quote:
There goes snapper season
Don't worry the Feds said the limit was reached before the season even started.
Posted on 6/4/16 at 2:22 pm to rds dc
What about dry air?
Posted on 6/4/16 at 2:48 pm to TDsngumbo
Has Martin got the stick out yet ?
Posted on 6/4/16 at 2:50 pm to rds dc
quote:
The curve off the West Coast is the raging +PDO and the curve in the Atlantic shows the potentially developing -AMO. Another early test for the models is on the table.
Speak English Doc, we ain't rocket scientists.
Posted on 6/4/16 at 3:09 pm to Jake88
What are the latest maps saying?
Posted on 6/5/16 at 8:58 am to Jake88
quote:
quote:
The curve off the West Coast is the raging +PDO and the curve in the Atlantic shows the potentially developing -AMO. Another early test for the models is on the table.
Speak English Doc, we ain't rocket scientists.
Like ENSO (La Nina & El Nino (which are spanish for The Nina and The Nino) the PDO and AMO are indices used to describe the spacial SSTs distributions across the Atlantic (AMO) and Pacific (PDO). Simple put, negative phase is cold and positive phase is warm.
The PDO has been in record warm territory lately but was just in an extended negative phase. We have been in an extended -PDO/+AMO combo and that was a major player in driving the widespread Western drought from Texas to California. As anyone that lives in Texas knows, the drought switch got flipped to "Flood" as the PDO flipped to positive.
The +AMO phase is often times associated with active Atlantic hurricane seasons but there are signs that the AMO is in the process of flipping negative (there is a good bit of debate on this topic). It appears that we have been moving out of an active Atlantic hurricane period and towards an inactive period and the AMO flipping could be a driver for that.
A +PDO/-AMO setup could be very good for American (MAGA?). Research suggest that this combo could produce less drought and less hurricanes.
Posted on 6/5/16 at 9:02 am to Paul Allen
quote:
What are the latest maps saying?
They show low level wind direction and anomalies. The area around Central America is what is of interest for this system. It has been shown that easterlies (blue) in that area are unfavorable for development and westerlies (red) are favorable.
Posted on 6/5/16 at 9:24 am to rds dc
The models have slowly been shifting 93L NW as they struggle with how to handle the decaying ULL that has been drifting around Texas the last few days. The 00z Euro gets it pretty near the Panhandle before shunting it off to the NE. This is probably about as far NW as this system can get given the current setup. A system moving from SW to NE off the Louisiana coast could actually ensure that we have some decent baseball weather after today 
The 06z HWRF moves it into the Big Bend of Florida as a TS and then strengthens it to the 2nd hurricane of the season out over the Atlantic.
The 06z HWRF moves it into the Big Bend of Florida as a TS and then strengthens it to the 2nd hurricane of the season out over the Atlantic.
This post was edited on 6/5/16 at 9:25 am
Posted on 6/5/16 at 9:28 am to rds dc
Upgrade to TD3 coming shortly.
Posted on 6/5/16 at 9:31 am to rds dc
So what do the major Deepwater O&G producers do in this situation? Evac non-essential personnel? Even when it looks to be steering East of the facility...
This post was edited on 6/5/16 at 9:34 am
Posted on 6/5/16 at 9:34 am to rds dc
I didn't think they'd upgrade it until it crossed over the yucatan... but looking at the last few hours on satellite they really have to at this point. convection is clearly starting to rotate.
Posted on 6/5/16 at 9:56 am to MikeTh3Tiger
quote:
So what do the major Deepwater O&G producers do in this situation
Is anybody left out there? I thought everyone had been layed off?
This post was edited on 6/5/16 at 9:57 am
Posted on 6/5/16 at 10:01 am to baytiger
quote:
I didn't think they'd upgrade it until it crossed over the yucatan... but looking at the last few hours on satellite they really have to at this point. convection is clearly starting to rotate.
Yea, probably didn't want to do the straight to TS with recon this afternoon. Also, this allows TS warnings to be issued now but next season they can issue before formation.
Posted on 6/5/16 at 10:23 am to MikeTh3Tiger
quote:
So what do the major Deepwater O&G producers do in this situation? Evac non-essential personnel? Even when it looks to be steering East of the facility...
Started unloading some of our non essentials yesterday. We are already completely tied down and have everything ready to go.
We've been watching it for about 5 days now
Posted on 6/5/16 at 10:23 am to rds dc
quote:ah yeah good call. I didn't even think about that.
Also, this allows TS warnings to be issued now but next season they can issue before formation.
just looking at the presentation, the hurricane hunters will probably find 34kts and upgrade it again
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