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Tropical Storm Colin - Earliest 3rd Storm on Record
Posted on 5/29/16 at 11:08 pm
Posted on 5/29/16 at 11:08 pm
ETA: Images above
The models are hinting at possible development in the Gulf next week. The upcoming pattern and climo both agree with the Gulf being a place to watch in early June. The GFS and Euro have both been upgraded since last hurricane season and actually did pretty well at sniffing out Bonnie. They also for the most part kept it pretty weak.
The 18z GEFS is highlighting the NW Caribbean/EPAC and to a lesser extent the southern Gulf. The southern Gulf solutions are probably just NW Caribbean systems that develop earlier on and move into the Gulf. The models showed this type of setup a number of times last year and the EPAC mostly won out.
It is a long ways off and nothing may come of this but there are other areas to look for clues. The 200mb CHI anomaly can highlight areas for potential development, it shows areas of large scale sinking and rising air.
It basically highlights the same area, maybe sightly favoring the NW Caribbean and southern Gulf. SSTs seem to maybe slightly favor the EPAC, so it might be a wash.
A couple of other interesting features, the black box highlights the emerging La Nina. The curve off the West Coast is the raging +PDO and the curve in the Atlantic shows the potentially developing -AMO. Another early test for the models is on the table.
This post was edited on 6/5/16 at 5:03 pm
14
Posted on 5/29/16 at 11:09 pm to rds dc
How will the contraflow impact my Memorial Day?
Posted on 5/29/16 at 11:10 pm to The Boat
Dat dry air baw
Posted on 5/29/16 at 11:11 pm to The Boat
Is there any chance this could affect the LSU home opener in September?
Posted on 5/29/16 at 11:11 pm to rds dc
gulf board
Posted on 5/29/16 at 11:12 pm to The Boat
quote:
How will the contraflow impact my Memorial Day?
I hope you already smoked all your meat for tomorrow.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 11:13 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Is there any chance this could affect the LSU home opener in September?
Les Miles has lost control of Hurricane Season. Only Trindon Holiday at DE might save us.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 11:15 pm to rds dc
This is why we need a weather board.
Posted on 5/29/16 at 11:28 pm to rds dc
I'm glad I waited til this upcoming weekend to take a Caribbean cruise. 
Posted on 5/30/16 at 12:37 am to rds dc
I'm no expert, but the people in the Houston area need to get ready for a rough Hurricane season. It won't be pretty
Posted on 6/1/16 at 2:23 pm to rds dc
June 1st is the first day of Hurricane Season and the NHC is going 20% for a potential system in the Gulf. If it got named, it would be the earliest ever for a 3rd system.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 90 miles southeast of
Wilmington, North Carolina.
1. A broad low pressure area may form over the southern Gulf of Mexico
by early next week. Additional development of the low should be
slow to occur as the low moves slowly north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.
The list of names for 2016 is as follows:
Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Alex AL-leks Lisa LEE-suh
Bonnie BAH-nee Matthew MATH-yoo
Colin KAH-lihn Nicole nih-KOHL
Danielle dan-YELL Otto AHT-toh
Earl URR-ull Paula PAHL-luh
Fiona fee-OH-nuh Richard RIH-churd
Gaston ga-STAWN Shary SHAHR-ee
Hermine her-MEEN Tobias toh-BEE-uss
Ian EE-an Virginie vir-JIN-ee
Julia JOO-lee-uh Walter WALL-tur
Karl KAR-ull
Two tropical cyclones have already formed this year, Hurricane Alex
in January and Tropical Storm Bonnie in May. The next named storm
that forms this season will be named Colin.
This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.
A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.
The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. It is also used to
issue hourly position updates when coastal watches and warnings are
in effect and the cyclone center can be easily tracked with
land based radar. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at
any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under
AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.
All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at LINK . You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at LINK .
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed is available at
LINK .
Forecaster Beven
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 90 miles southeast of
Wilmington, North Carolina.
1. A broad low pressure area may form over the southern Gulf of Mexico
by early next week. Additional development of the low should be
slow to occur as the low moves slowly north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3,
respectively.
The list of names for 2016 is as follows:
Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Alex AL-leks Lisa LEE-suh
Bonnie BAH-nee Matthew MATH-yoo
Colin KAH-lihn Nicole nih-KOHL
Danielle dan-YELL Otto AHT-toh
Earl URR-ull Paula PAHL-luh
Fiona fee-OH-nuh Richard RIH-churd
Gaston ga-STAWN Shary SHAHR-ee
Hermine her-MEEN Tobias toh-BEE-uss
Ian EE-an Virginie vir-JIN-ee
Julia JOO-lee-uh Walter WALL-tur
Karl KAR-ull
Two tropical cyclones have already formed this year, Hurricane Alex
in January and Tropical Storm Bonnie in May. The next named storm
that forms this season will be named Colin.
This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After
the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are
1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.
A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.
A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.
The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. It is also used to
issue hourly position updates when coastal watches and warnings are
in effect and the cyclone center can be easily tracked with
land based radar. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at
any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under
AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.
All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are
available on the web at LINK . You can also
interact with NHC on Facebook at LINK .
Notifications are available via Twitter when select National
Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our
Atlantic Twitter feed is available at
LINK .
Forecaster Beven
Posted on 6/1/16 at 2:55 pm to The Boat
quote:
Possible Gulf Action
I-10 through BR gonna be fricked.
Posted on 6/1/16 at 3:28 pm to rds dc
Which 2016 hurricanes are going to be the worst?
My money is on Hermine or Ian just going by ominous names associated with hurricanes, based on no scientific evidence.
Fiona could be bad too.
My money is on Hermine or Ian just going by ominous names associated with hurricanes, based on no scientific evidence.
Fiona could be bad too.
Posted on 6/1/16 at 3:33 pm to rds dc
The hurricane predictors predicts an active season right? Whatever they say, I expect the opposite.
Posted on 6/1/16 at 3:36 pm to rds dc
This post was edited on 6/1/16 at 3:38 pm
Posted on 6/2/16 at 9:30 am to OweO
quote:Agreed, but we're definitely due up...at least in the Houston/Bay City/Galveston areas...haven't had a decent hurricane since Ike in 2008
The hurricane predictors predicts an active season right? Whatever they say, I expect the opposite.
Posted on 6/2/16 at 1:17 pm to rds dc
NHC bumped this up to 40%. This is a pretty classical early season setup with a MJO like signal helping to spin up a broad area of low pressure as moisture surges in from the Caribbean. Systems that form this way are typically slow to organize and can be sloppy overall.
quote:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2016
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on the
re-generated Tropical Depression Bonnie, located about 25 miles
east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
1. A broad low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late in the
weekend. Additional development of the low could occur as it
subsequently moves north-northeastward across the central or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
Forecaster Beven
Posted on 6/2/16 at 3:52 pm to rds dc
Very early model run...
Posted on 6/2/16 at 4:18 pm to jlu03
Not looking good for Tampa
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