- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Tesla Semi could be ‘the biggest catalyst in trucking in decades’
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:18 am to Korkstand
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:18 am to Korkstand
quote:
Electric motors are MUCH better suited to this than ICE ones. Also, for every incline there is a decline, and regenerative braking can put a little juice back in the batteries.
Also, the tops of trailers would make excellent place for solar panels to get some juice.
2
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:18 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
I just don't see them saving much when you factor in things like;
1. Electricity bills
2. Battery replacement and disposal
3. Lower productivity levels due to electric trucks being unable to haul as much freight as current trucks.
1. Electricity bills will be a fraction of diesel bills
2. Most of the material in batteries is recyclable. I'm not sure the economics are there yet, but it will be eventually, and probably soon. We need batteries for a lot more than just transportation
3. I need to answer this one in parts
3a. You have no clue how much freight they will haul. It is very possible they will haul more. Musk thinks they will.
3b. It's impossible for a human to come anywhere near the productivity levels of robots. That's why we build them. That's why they replace humans in monotonous jobs like driving trucks. They don't eat, sleep, shite, etc.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:22 am to mikelbr
quote:Yep. Trailers also have lots of space to house extra batteries for longer hauls.
Also, the tops of trailers would make excellent place for solar panels to get some juice.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:23 am to Korkstand
quote:Do their supercharge stations do that now? If so, for how much?
Tesla already demonstrated this tech a few years ago. LINK
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:26 am to Korkstand
quote:
3b. It's impossible for a human to come anywhere near the productivity levels of robots. That's why we build them. That's why they replace humans in monotonous jobs like driving trucks. They don't eat, sleep, shite, etc.
Yep. People were skeptical at a plant I worked at when these were brought it. Took a LOT of effort and $$ but... when they got fully functional and online, the reality sunk in. I remember the manager saying "and these things don't stop to check their Iphone every 3 minutes."
24/7 and almost creepy watching these things in action, especially how they'll return to charging bay and swap batteries then get back to work.
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 9:28 am
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:31 am to Korkstand
quote:
Electricity bills will be a fraction of diesel bills
Please explain.
quote:
2. Most of the material in batteries is recyclable. I'm not sure the economics are there yet, but it will be eventually, and probably soon. We need batteries for a lot more than just transportation
Again, back up your claim.
quote:
3a. You have no clue how much freight they will haul. It is very possible they will haul more. Musk thinks they will.
You're totally missing the point. It's not just a matter of how much weight an electric truck can pull, it's a matter of how much weight the truck itself has. Roads have weight limits, the heavier a truck weighs means the less freight it can haul due to weight restrictions on the roads. Overweight trucks tear up roads. Batteries are heavy so logic says an electric truck will have to weigh more than a diesel powered truck. This means an electric truck will not be able to haul as much freight as a diesel powered truck.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:32 am to shel311
quote:No, they don't, and afaik the battery swap stuff is on the back burner at Tesla for now.
Do their supercharge stations do that now? If so, for how much?
I don't have a clue how much the stations cost to build, but I can't imagine it's exorbitant. It's just the economics have to be right to start seeing some get put into operation, and IMO if you can turn hours of recharge downtime into productive time every single day for every single truck you operate, that sounds like the economics could work out to me.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:34 am to Korkstand
quote:
Yep. Trailers also have lots of space to house extra batteries for longer hauls
A trucking company doesn't get paid to haul its own batteries around. That "extra space" you're talking about for batteries means less freight a truck can haul. Even a small reduction in freight space can mean the difference in making or not making a profit on a run.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:35 am to tiger114
quote:Add Foxconn.
Add Amazon.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:52 am to mikelbr
quote:
Also, the tops of trailers would make excellent place for solar panels to get some juice.
Again, you're adding more weight. Just as batteries are heavy, covering the whole top of a trailer with solar panels would likewise add weight as well. Every pound of weight to the truck itself you add is one less pound of freight that truck can legally haul.
Plus there's the matter of only some loads are in nice enclosed trailers. You can really put solar panels on top of flat beds, lowboys, or bucket haulers.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:54 am to Darth_Vader
quote:Not much to explain. Operating an electric vehicle costs less than operating a gas/diesel one.quote:Please explain.
Electricity bills will be a fraction of diesel bills
quote:Funny I have to back up my claims, but you don't have to back up your speculation. Anyway, lithium itself is 100% recyclable, but it's currently a few times more expensive to recycle than to mine more. But, as we use more and more, the recycling cost will decline at scale. That's just the way things work... do I need to explain this?quote:Again, back up your claim.
2. Most of the material in batteries is recyclable. I'm not sure the economics are there yet, but it will be eventually, and probably soon. We need batteries for a lot more than just transportation
Regardless of whether they're recycled, the initial cost of batteries continues to drop, which again is the nature of doing things at scale. Cars, trucks, phones, computers.. we use batteries everywhere. The cost of energy storage has been dropping forever, and will continue to drop for the foreseeable future.
quote:I know.
You're totally missing the point. It's not just a matter of how much weight an electric truck can pull, it's a matter of how much weight the truck itself has. Roads have weight limits, the heavier a truck weighs means the less freight it can haul due to weight restrictions on the roads.
quote:That's some strange logic. We aren't just adding heavy batteries to current trucks, it's totally different drivetrain components. The electric motors weigh less than diesel engines, transmissions are smaller, etc. These things offset the weigh of the batteries to a large extent, and this plays out in the fact that Tesla's road cars weigh about the same as other vehicles, and they have more storage space to boot.
Batteries are heavy so logic says an electric truck will have to weigh more than a diesel powered truck.
quote:I think you will be surprised.
This means an electric truck will not be able to haul as much freight as a diesel powered truck.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:55 am to Darth_Vader
quote:Well, when your "fuel" costs are smaller and you're not paying a human driver, that opens a lot of profitable possibilities.
A trucking company doesn't get paid to haul its own batteries around. That "extra space" you're talking about for batteries means less freight a truck can haul. Even a small reduction in freight space can mean the difference in making or not making a profit on a run.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:58 am to Korkstand
Ok, I'm not going to argue with you. What do I know, I've just been directly involved in the trucking and construction industry for over 20 years.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:01 am to Darth_Vader
quote:Not sure why you're getting defensive. He made a solid point, you keep asking him to explain and give details, but you really haven' done the same, like he has.
Ok, I'm not going to argue with you. What do I know, I've just been directly involved in the trucking and construction industry for over 20 years.
I'd also contend that if you've been in that industry that long, while I'm sure you have healthy skepticism, I'd imagine you should also recognize that this is not a matter of if it'll happen, but when.
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 10:02 am
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:08 am to mikelbr
quote:Yeah, you get basically non-stop productivity out of a robot, so let's call it 8,000 hours per year. Even if it's replacing a few minimum-wage workers, you're saving $65k/year in labor costs, absolute minimum. You don't have to worry about safety and the associated costs. Error rates are lower, along with those associated cost savings.
Yep. People were skeptical at a plant I worked at when these were brought it. Took a LOT of effort and $$ but... when they got fully functional and online, the reality sunk in. I remember the manager saying "and these things don't stop to check their Iphone every 3 minutes."
24/7 and almost creepy watching these things in action, especially how they'll return to charging bay and swap batteries then get back to work.
As the tech continues to advance and continues to get cheaper, more and more manual labor jobs will be replaced. It's inevitable, people, and trucking is a prime target for the next big robot takeover. It's juicy as frick.
So all you posters going "but this" and "but that"... you're not the first person to think of whatever little problem you think you see, and none of these problems are anywhere near show-stoppers.
It's going to happen, and the only real hurdles are political and legal. The economics and technology are there.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:09 am to mikelbr
quote:
I don't see trucks driving around the country without a human in them for a while. However, what would refineries making diesel switch to if this is the norm by 2030?
My best guess is they would start buying more light end crude such as the stuff coming out of west texas in the fracking fields and produce more gasoline and chemical plant feed stock
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:11 am to Darth_Vader
quote:That was blatantly obvious to me based on your posts in this thread.
What do I know, I've just been directly involved in the trucking and construction industry for over 20 years.
You seem to think that your knowledge and involvement with the industry gives you some special insight, but I think it's actually blinding you to reality. Nobody really wants to believe that their job is in jeopardy until it's actually gone.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:11 am to shel311
quote:
Not sure why you're getting defensive. He made a solid point, you keep asking him to explain and give details, but you really haven' done the same, like he has.
I have explained and given details. My main point is the extra weight of an electric truck versus a standard. Look at it this way, a Chevy Malibu weight 3,100 lbs. It's about the same size as a Tesla Model S. But the Tesla weighs over 4,600 lbs. That difference is huge, especially when you start talking about big trucks versus cars. The bottom line is an electric truck will weigh more than a standard truck. Period, they just will. And even if they can pull twice the weight of a standard truck it won't matter because they will still be restricted by the roads themselves and the legal limit states will allow to travel on those roads. Again, the heavier the truck, the less weight it can legally haul. And the less freight it can haul, the less economically feesable the truck.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:24 am to Korkstand
quote:
You seem to think that your knowledge and involvement with the industry gives you some special insight, but I think it's actually blinding you to reality. Nobody really wants to believe that their job is in jeopardy until it's actually gone.
This. Darth is the buggy whip manufacturer laughing at the Model A in 1903 saying that people will never stop buying his buggy whips. Unfortunately for him, the pace of technological development these days is much faster than in 1903.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:28 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
My main point is the extra weight of an electric truck versus a standard. Look at it this way, a Chevy Malibu weight 3,100 lbs. It's about the same size as a Tesla Model S. But the Tesla weighs over 4,600 lbs. That difference is huge, especially when you start talking about big trucks versus cars. The bottom line is an electric truck will weigh more than a standard truck. Period, they just will.
LINK
quote:
The key, Potter said, is that much of the trucking industry overestimates weight needs. That leaves room on trucks for the weight of the large battery packs that provide power for electric vehicles.
About “85 percent of the Class 8 trucks on the road in the U.S. operate below the 80,000-pound legal limit, and are therefore relatively insensitive to weight,” Potter said. “Range is a potentially more challenging problem.”
quote:
“We think many trucks could make the transition to an electric drivetrain without adding more than 4,000 pounds in gross weight,” Potter said.
quote:
And he called the estimate conservative because it assumes manufacturers and carriers are not making any efforts to shave weight from their vehicles. Potter believes the trucking industry can “easily” find weight savings of 2,000 pounds in a semi-tractor and trailer package.
“We have concluded that making the transition to EVs will NOT be too heavy for most fleets to stomach,” Potter wrote in his report.
In fact, most fleets don't care how much their trucks weigh, Potter said.
“There is a misperception that fleets obsess over vehicle weight,” he said. “Some fleets will rightly disagree with this statement, but in fact, only a small portion (2 percent to 7 percent) of trucks frequently operate near the 80,000-pound maximum allowable combined weight limit,”
Most of those are bulk haulers that have revenue tied to the mass of the commodity they are delivering.
“But such fleets are rare,” Potter said. “Most fleets run out of space in their trailers long before they approach the 80,000-pound pound threshold.”
He estimates that 80 percent of Class 8 trucks haul less than 70,000 pounds. That leaves lots of room to absorb the weight of electric vehicle components.
“If these fleets cared so deeply about minimizing vehicle weight and maximizing payload, then they would be mimicking bulk haulers by investing in lightweight trucks,” Potter said. “But they aren't.”
Page 4 of 7
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News