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Started By
Message
re: Tesla Semi could be ‘the biggest catalyst in trucking in decades’
Posted on 9/8/17 at 6:55 am to DavidTheGnome
Posted on 9/8/17 at 6:55 am to DavidTheGnome
It Tesla says 2020, it won't be on sale until 2022....and even then in limited numbers.
0
Posted on 9/8/17 at 6:55 am to Rossberg02
quote:For now and for certain products.
Still needs a driver to offload or load depending on cargo.
Others not.
A load of milled lumber or sheet rock?
The technology is present today to load & off-load without humans.
Most of what actually goes to WalMart's stores?
Doable on both ends.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 6:56 am to DavidTheGnome
Will they drive in the left lane?
Posted on 9/8/17 at 6:57 am to GetBackToWork
quote:
It would seem like the better market for tesla would be the local route, not OTR, where trucks return to depot every day
I agree. I would start with class 8 day cabs.
I suppose they think they can keep a charge for at least as long as the DOT hourly regs for drivers, and then get fully recharged in less than 10 hours.
And autonomous driving will probably make it possible to extend what a driver can do safely in one shift. Eventually they may be able to replace drivers.
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 6:59 am
Posted on 9/8/17 at 7:10 am to Martini
quote:
And while I'm not against them I have concerns with an empty cabin dragging a fully loaded 53' van coming towards me. They will have to prove it to me
Tesla's autonomous system uses a series of sensors to detect the lane markings. A lot of times when the markings are worn (which is a huge % of our roads), the vehicle sort "hunts" for the center of the lane. The slight swerving motion like that isn't a problem in their cars...but in something with a trailer it could potentially create a sway problem and even an accident.
I think they need to add the lidar mapping functionality featured in Cadillac's autonomous cars. It would keep the trucks at dead center regardless of pavement markings.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 7:13 am to NewIberiaHaircut
Yes Cummins also announced electric semi
Posted on 9/8/17 at 7:14 am to Cosmo
quote:
A truck stop with 50 truck supercharging stations would allegedly eat as much electricity as a city of a few thousand people
I was just thinking about that. Imagine how many power plants would have to be constructed just to support these new truck stops. And I don't think wind or solar would be a viable option for supplying the required capacity.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 7:19 am to soccerfüt
quote:
For now and for certain products.
Others not.
A load of milled lumber or sheet rock?
The technology is present today to load & off-load without humans.
Most of what actually goes to WalMart's stores?
Doable on both ends.
Not all trucks operate between nice, neat terminals and operate on nice, smooth interstates (not that most interstates even qualify as smooth). One prime example is lowboy trucks. They have to unload their loads in places like lumber yards, rail yards, job sites, quarries, or mines.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 7:23 am to DavidTheGnome
They might want to focus on getting cars right first.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 8:02 am to DavidTheGnome
This effort by Musk and Tesla is most equivalent to GM's pushing street trolley cars out of business by conspiring with oil and tire companies so that buses -and eventually cars would be preferred and purchased.
The very big difference is that today, there doesn't appear to be a critical mass of natural allies for such a conspiracy to succeed at the pace suggested by many breathless media reports.
The push for electric and/or driver-less cars is being made primarily through a marketing campaign -that includes a heavy DC lobby component. Its design is to drive approval for investments to develop efficient battery technologies and recharging networks that currently, in effect, do not exist.
This campaign centers around global warming issues, safety, and inevitability.
The global warming argument is semi-laughable because the electricity to run vehicles still has to be produced and transported which, at least currently, will effectively increase the outputs of the current CO2/SO2 emitting network of energy plants, thus merely transferring this so-called green house gas production. And though the total effect is debated, there is no denying that the production of vehicle batteries themselves leaves a significant CO2 footprint -not too mention fire and flourine hazards of such energy sources.
The safety argument for autonomous vehicles is premature at best and dishonest at worst: what about obstacles such as CPU/software failure or corruption -it's not like that never happens. Or what about transitional incrementalism - the idea that the entire system of land-based transportation will not all transition to an autonomous state at the flip of a switch, thus exponentially increasing variables related to safety. And don't even begin to think about basic infrastructure barriers - does anyone really think there is a magical software solution to account for that pothole in the road that wasn't there yesterday? Oh, and did I mention the fire and flourine hazards of such batteries?
Inevitability does exist but it's time line is far from certain. My best guess would be in 30 years time, things like electric driver-less cars will be more common than not. But again, that's based purely on a guess.
The automobile was invented around 1885 and horses and carriages were still in substantial, yet small, proportional effect as a viable economic option in this country -thanks in part to the Great Depression- as late as the 1930s. I don't think that a transition to electric will take quite that long but the battery and recharging technology/infrastructure is still a long way off...
And as far as driver-less vehicles go, let's tap the brakes before the human animal, with it's own innate drive to be autonomous, fully checks in...
The very big difference is that today, there doesn't appear to be a critical mass of natural allies for such a conspiracy to succeed at the pace suggested by many breathless media reports.
The push for electric and/or driver-less cars is being made primarily through a marketing campaign -that includes a heavy DC lobby component. Its design is to drive approval for investments to develop efficient battery technologies and recharging networks that currently, in effect, do not exist.
This campaign centers around global warming issues, safety, and inevitability.
The global warming argument is semi-laughable because the electricity to run vehicles still has to be produced and transported which, at least currently, will effectively increase the outputs of the current CO2/SO2 emitting network of energy plants, thus merely transferring this so-called green house gas production. And though the total effect is debated, there is no denying that the production of vehicle batteries themselves leaves a significant CO2 footprint -not too mention fire and flourine hazards of such energy sources.
The safety argument for autonomous vehicles is premature at best and dishonest at worst: what about obstacles such as CPU/software failure or corruption -it's not like that never happens. Or what about transitional incrementalism - the idea that the entire system of land-based transportation will not all transition to an autonomous state at the flip of a switch, thus exponentially increasing variables related to safety. And don't even begin to think about basic infrastructure barriers - does anyone really think there is a magical software solution to account for that pothole in the road that wasn't there yesterday? Oh, and did I mention the fire and flourine hazards of such batteries?
Inevitability does exist but it's time line is far from certain. My best guess would be in 30 years time, things like electric driver-less cars will be more common than not. But again, that's based purely on a guess.
The automobile was invented around 1885 and horses and carriages were still in substantial, yet small, proportional effect as a viable economic option in this country -thanks in part to the Great Depression- as late as the 1930s. I don't think that a transition to electric will take quite that long but the battery and recharging technology/infrastructure is still a long way off...
And as far as driver-less vehicles go, let's tap the brakes before the human animal, with it's own innate drive to be autonomous, fully checks in...
Posted on 9/8/17 at 8:06 am to DavidTheGnome
Freight train.
Diesel electric. But both, not one or the other.
Diesel electric. But both, not one or the other.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 8:06 am to DavidTheGnome
So a model S has 7000 baby batteries to move its 5k lb body. At 80k pounds, an 18 wheeler would need around 110k of these batteries!
The advancements in electric technology have been just as much in weight savings as they are in batteries. All of that is thrown out the window when you are actually trying to move weight.
The advancements in electric technology have been just as much in weight savings as they are in batteries. All of that is thrown out the window when you are actually trying to move weight.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 8:26 am to slackster
quote:While it's true on them missing targets...a lot, I think most miss the mark on why that tends to happen.
t's a Tesla, right?
Let's shoot for 2030 then.
I'm pretty confident in saying Musk creates these deadlines knowing it's not likely he'll come anywhere near meeting them, but he also knows he'll get max effort out of his team to get the product completed earlier than had he just set a comfortable deadline that the team knew they could meet a bit easier.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 8:31 am to Cosmo
quote:
Thats the problem. These are gonna have to be charged about every 300 miles or so.
I would think that is very optimistic to assume a 300 mil range on a semi pulling a load unless it has 250k worth of batteries tucked in there. I don't know how heavy the batteries are but weight becomes an issue also, I think they rough estimate the drivetrain on a semi to weigh around 5k or so. If they batteries start getting into that number or higher with the electric motors (which isn't far fetched), it could be a downside to owning one.
quote:
A truck stop with 50 truck supercharging stations would allegedly eat as much electricity as a city of a few thousand people
Yep and think about how long they will have to stay there charging to get back on the road. According to Tesla's site, it takes almost 6 hours to charge for a 300 mile range using a 90 amp/240V charger. that will chew through some power.
All in all, this is a step in the right direction but still doesn't address the stress that the large trucks (that we have to have, just a fact) have on the roads themselves.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 8:32 am to Cosmo
quote:
A truck stop with 50 truck supercharging stations would allegedly eat as much electricity as a city of a few thousand people
This is a major hurdle for the technology. What they should be doing is collaborating on making their batteries easily replaceable to instead of recharging stations they (both semis and consumer vehicles) could just have the batteries swapped out for fully-charged ones. Ideally it should take no longer than filling up a tank of gas on your average consumer vehicle.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 8:34 am to member12
quote:There's probably no way to say this without sounding like an a-hole...but I'm sure Tesla has some functionality geared towards avoiding that issue.
Tesla's autonomous system uses a series of sensors to detect the lane markings. A lot of times when the markings are worn (which is a huge % of our roads), the vehicle sort "hunts" for the center of the lane. The slight swerving motion like that isn't a problem in their cars...but in something with a trailer it could potentially create a sway problem and even an accident.
I think they need to add the lidar mapping functionality featured in Cadillac's autonomous cars. It would keep the trucks at dead center regardless of pavement markings.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 8:34 am to Kingpenm3
quote:
At 80k pounds, an 18 wheeler would need around 110k of these batteries!
Now imagine the power an electric truck would need to pull even it's own weight (not to mention an actual load) up some of the inclines out west.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 8:34 am to kywildcatfanone
quote:
They might want to focus on getting cars right first.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 8:35 am to Knight of Old
quote:
Knight of Old
Very well said as usual. Youre becoming my favorite poster with f33maniator.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 8:37 am to Koach K
quote:
Don't you know when you get gubment subsidy you can ignore physics and economic reality.
This statement is just dumb. Economically, the biggest amount of money to be made in that industry is in increasing the efficiency of big trucks. They drive the most miles and use the most fuel. Increasing the efficiency by the equivalent of a few miles per gallon is huge. And getting that kind of efficiency increase does not require anyone to ignore physics. Plus, known shipping routes are much easier to address and do away with problems like "range anxiety" that face passenger auto makers.
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