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re: Mardi Gras Weather Thread
Posted on 3/1/19 at 4:43 pm to MrJudgeSmails
Posted on 3/1/19 at 4:43 pm to MrJudgeSmails
10 am isn't a bad call as things stand. The afternoon is the bigger concern now. Push all three early parades up and Bacchus back isn't a bad strategy.
1
Posted on 3/1/19 at 8:35 pm to Duke
Any expert updates on tomorrow, Duke?
Posted on 3/2/19 at 8:48 am to Kevin TheRant
The weather.com hourly forecast for tomorrow is causing me to be very concerned. Scattered Thunderstorms from 6 until noon, then thunderstorms until 7 pm.
I can deal with occasional rain. Thunderstorms is another issue.
We need the O-T Weather Pros to assemble. Duke, RDS, etc
I can deal with occasional rain. Thunderstorms is another issue.
We need the O-T Weather Pros to assemble. Duke, RDS, etc
Posted on 3/2/19 at 9:08 am to LSUFanHouston
Yeah the way the forecast is looking now, it ain't looking good boys!
Posted on 3/2/19 at 9:26 am to gjackx
Looks like Napolean Ave will be minus 1 on some great Jambalaya if this forecast holds up.
Edit: Wasn't it 2-3yrs ago they kept predicting rain all day but wound up being a great dry overcast day? Doesn't appear that will happen this time.
Edit: Wasn't it 2-3yrs ago they kept predicting rain all day but wound up being a great dry overcast day? Doesn't appear that will happen this time.
This post was edited on 3/2/19 at 9:30 am
Posted on 3/2/19 at 9:36 am to Zephyrius
Get your arse out there baw.
Posted on 3/2/19 at 9:38 am to gjackx
Yeah just got loaded up, wlll be bringing more liquor to numb the rain 
Posted on 3/2/19 at 9:41 am to oVo
I loaded yesterday and out plenty of vodka on to help. LOL
Nothing like sweating your arse off in the den.
Nothing like sweating your arse off in the den.
Posted on 3/2/19 at 9:44 am to gjackx
From the NWS -
So noon to 6 pm is the blast zone.
You could probably slide Bacchus back to like a 7 pm or so start time and not mess with their party too much. But, Even if you roll Okeanos at 9 am, and slide everything else up 2 hours, I don't know if you can get Thoth off the route before 3 pm.
And if it was just rain, whatever. But having tens of thousands of people on Naopleon / St Charles in thunderstorms with no quick place to take cover is going to be a bad issue. Especially with people doing shite like bringing metal ladders.
quote:
Clouds will be on the increase tonight as moisture levels rise. This will keep temps from fall much more than mid 60s. In addition, scattered showers will begin increasing later in the overnight period with the approach of the next system. A broad trough digging across the mid section of the country will drive a strong cold front through late Sunday afternoon. Confidence continues to be high due to few changes in model solutions from run to run. A wide swath of rain co-located with the boundary means coverage will be nearly 100% in the northern half of the CWA. Model soundings still looking fairly conducive for severe weather. CAPE values of around 1500 j/kg and LI`s -4 to -6 due to strong cooling in the mid/upper levels. Winds are uniform in the column, suggesting a damaging wind potential. Hail will be possible as well, with tornadoes the lowest threat. The SPC risk outlook is virtually the same as the previous with the slight northeast of a BTR to MSY line and marginal elsewhere. Timing should be 18z-00z, from north to south. Showers should be quickly tapering off Sunday night as cooler and drier air rushes in.
So noon to 6 pm is the blast zone.
You could probably slide Bacchus back to like a 7 pm or so start time and not mess with their party too much. But, Even if you roll Okeanos at 9 am, and slide everything else up 2 hours, I don't know if you can get Thoth off the route before 3 pm.
And if it was just rain, whatever. But having tens of thousands of people on Naopleon / St Charles in thunderstorms with no quick place to take cover is going to be a bad issue. Especially with people doing shite like bringing metal ladders.
This post was edited on 3/2/19 at 9:45 am
Posted on 3/2/19 at 9:48 am to LSUFanHouston
That update gives me the sads
Posted on 3/2/19 at 9:52 am to LSUFanHouston
Sleeping off the first night of Mardi Gras. I'll take a look at the models post Tucks.
The forecast still looks better for NOLA and south vs the rest of SELa. We are starting to get into short range model range, which should give us an idea of mode of storm system. Hopefully, the majority is focused to the squall and we can time that out.
The forecast still looks better for NOLA and south vs the rest of SELa. We are starting to get into short range model range, which should give us an idea of mode of storm system. Hopefully, the majority is focused to the squall and we can time that out.
Posted on 3/2/19 at 10:25 am to Duke
Posted on 3/2/19 at 1:01 pm to oVo
A quick look at the NAM while waiting on a food truck looks as good as you could hope for tomorrow. Squall coming for the start of Bacchus but nothing showing up before then.
Note the short range has been poo and we need a fuller suite of runs to go off. Not a bad look for now
Note the short range has been poo and we need a fuller suite of runs to go off. Not a bad look for now
Posted on 3/2/19 at 1:20 pm to Duke
Posted on 3/2/19 at 2:30 pm to oVo
Thoth rolling an hour earlier
Posted on 3/2/19 at 2:32 pm to oVo
Chances they move Bacchus to Monday? 
Posted on 3/2/19 at 4:00 pm to oVo
quote:
Thoth rolling an hour earlier
This official?
When I saw my float lieutenant out at Iris earlier, said everything was still set for normal time.
Posted on 3/2/19 at 4:02 pm to John Casey
Yes official
Posted on 3/2/19 at 4:53 pm to oVo
Sunday.
Moving all the early parades makes sense. Bacchus should move back an hour based on the short range stuff. It'll give us a window between parades for the storms to blow through. I'm surprised by the sharpness of the line showing up on the high res models, it's only really showing an hour to two of rain. Somewhere between 3-7 pm as it stands.
Eyes on the radar and we'll see how it looks in the morning model wise. My optimism increases today though.
Moving all the early parades makes sense. Bacchus should move back an hour based on the short range stuff. It'll give us a window between parades for the storms to blow through. I'm surprised by the sharpness of the line showing up on the high res models, it's only really showing an hour to two of rain. Somewhere between 3-7 pm as it stands.
Eyes on the radar and we'll see how it looks in the morning model wise. My optimism increases today though.
Posted on 3/2/19 at 6:16 pm to Duke
Bacchus riding at normal time. Just got an email on it.
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