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Started By
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Hurricane Season - July - TS Emily
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:18 pm
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:18 pm
This post was edited on 7/31/17 at 7:06 am
23
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:24 pm to rds dc
Are you taking over for Peej?
This post was edited on 7/1/17 at 8:24 pm
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:25 pm to rds dc
Ran my big generator and tailgating generator today. Ran sea foam through both with non ethanol gas. I've got two ac units on my amazon list incase something starts forming out there.
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:28 pm to rds dc
Guess I won't be going to Punta Cana now! 
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:31 pm to Geauxnoose
quote:
Are you taking over for Peej?
Those are some large shoes to fill.
Who am I kidding.
My dog could do a better job than Peej.
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:33 pm to Geauxnoose
quote:
Are you taking over for Peej?
I don't make predictions.
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:34 pm to rds dc
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:35 pm to rds dc
The 40% by the NHC actually seems a bit on the high side given the current setup and really only the GFS develops this a system from the highlighted area:
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:36 pm to rds dc
I think this will be an active hurricane season. This is not based on science, just my crappy opinion.
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:42 pm to Kcrad
quote:
I think this will be an active hurricane season. This is not based on science, just my crappy opinion.
As long as they all stay out in the Atlantic
I was originally thinking ACE would be around 65 but the chances of El Nino have really declined over the last couple of months.
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:44 pm to chalupa
quote:BEST way to NOT need it is to be prepared.
Ran my big generator and tailgating generator today. Ran sea foam through both with non ethanol gas. I've got two ac units on my amazon list incase something starts forming out there.
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:50 pm to rds dc
Big dick coming
Posted on 7/1/17 at 8:57 pm to rds dc
Hell it was less than 20% chance of development earlier today
Posted on 7/2/17 at 8:17 pm to rds dc
NHC continues to be aggressive with this disturbance:
quote:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad area of low pressure has remained nearly stationary about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for some development of this system later this week while the disturbance moves westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Stewart
Posted on 7/2/17 at 8:23 pm to rds dc
This is going to be the big one.
Posted on 7/2/17 at 8:28 pm to rds dc
Posted on 7/2/17 at 8:28 pm to LakeViewLSU
The NHC is far better than any model. 60% is just barely over 50/50 shot of developing so they aren't saying it is a sure thing, not even close. They could also be seeing a small window of development where it may achieve tropical storm status and then quickly dissipate. It would be quite rare for a storm to develop so far to the east and be a long tracker at this point in early July.
This post was edited on 7/2/17 at 8:29 pm
Posted on 7/2/17 at 8:29 pm to rds dc
You know it's going to be an active season when you get development way out there in early July. This is what we saw in 2005 when Dennis and Emily became powerful storms in July.
Posted on 7/2/17 at 8:31 pm to DustyDinkleman
Nothing funny about Hurricane season.
Posted on 7/2/17 at 8:35 pm to LakeViewLSU
quote:
This is going to be the big one
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