re: Hurricane Season - August - Potential Tropical Cyclone #9

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So, dude, tell me...am I gonna get some rain here in Central TX in a couple weeks?

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Things look bad down that way over the next month or so unless Texas lands a tropical storm.

I'm in the same boat. Supposed to be in OB that week.

91L still spinning out there and fighting dry air but convection has started to slightly increase. Of the disturbances out there this is still the main on to watch regarding potential to get in the Gulf.

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Whats the possibility of predicting whether or not there will be anything in the gulf the week of Sept 4-8.

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Basically zero. Subseasonal hurricane forecasting doesn't really show any skill. There is some skill in predicting periods of above/below normal ACE but that isn't really helpful when looking at individual areas.

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Won't have any predictions worth a damn if they're predicting way out in September

5-7 days out is about the ceiling for best accuracy and even then things change drastically

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NHC has determined that 5 days is the max based on current modeling. They have suspended the internal 6 & 7 day forecast due to lack of accuracy.

What's this pattern we are in that's causing LA to get so much rain? We are at our historical avg just halfway through August

12z tracks for 91L



12z tracks for 92L (the longer this stays weak the father west it could get, something to watch if it ever develops)

Yes, from run time, so starting at 12z and going out.

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Looks like we will be ok with 91L, but the model run I just saw on the weather channel on 92L could be concerning.

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They both have some potential roadblocks ahead, so hopefully neither one does anything. The upper level setup is pretty complex and the models will struggle with it over the next few days. So it may be a bit before they get a better handle on what might happen.

These bad boys lining up like airplanes