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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - August - Potential Tropical Cyclone #9
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:25 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:25 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
He's not really wrong
1
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:28 pm to upgrayedd
I will certainly be evacuating with any likely hurricane landfall given recent events - which I haven't done in my five years of time in this city.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:30 pm to Sneaky__Sally
Yeah, anyone that doesn't isn't very bright. Maybe Mitch can pull a Nagin and drown a bunch of buses instead of using them to evacuate citizens.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:41 pm to BigB0882
Invest90L : Movg W at 15kt.
12z : 12.4 N 33.8 W wnds: 25kt.
18Z: ship ~ 180 Miles west of I90L showing pressure at 1010.8mb (29.85 in hg). Pressure falling.
Invest 90L likely pressure at 18 z ~ 1008 mb.
12z : 12.4 N 33.8 W wnds: 25kt.
18Z: ship ~ 180 Miles west of I90L showing pressure at 1010.8mb (29.85 in hg). Pressure falling.
Invest 90L likely pressure at 18 z ~ 1008 mb.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:44 pm to Zach Lee To Amp Hill
I accidentally RA'd. Admins disregard.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 1:45 pm to MottLaneKid
Latest Euro looks like it will bury 91L on the Yucatan/Honduras coast. Also keeps it much weaker this run.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 4:52 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Latest Euro looks like it will bury 91L on the Yucatan/Honduras coast. Also keeps it much weaker this run.
Not surprising, this has been a repeating pattern with the models the past couple of seasons - show quick development in the MDR, back off development, then pick development back up as system moves farther west. Same thing just happened with Gert. However, with Gert it was obvious before the wave moved off Africa that MDR development was unlikely, it just took the models a bit to catch on.
The transition of Gert to the high latitudes is going to cause some issues for the models. That process could keep 91L weaker longer than anticipated but will have to wait for that to play out.
Posted on 8/14/17 at 5:00 pm to rds dc
How far in advance can you get info on a storm out there brewing?
Heading to Florida in a monthish, and dont want to get burned, like the last time.(hurricane that hit mexico). We had a house on beach and it rained all day, every day but 1.
Waiting to see if anything is close, or moving in, and will rent a house then, or head to San Diego possibly.
Heading to Florida in a monthish, and dont want to get burned, like the last time.(hurricane that hit mexico). We had a house on beach and it rained all day, every day but 1.
Waiting to see if anything is close, or moving in, and will rent a house then, or head to San Diego possibly.
Posted on 8/15/17 at 6:36 am to rds dc
Someone talk to me about invest 91L
Posted on 8/15/17 at 8:10 am to rds dc
Models and NHC backing off of 91L now, we keep seeing this happen in the MDR. Models continue to flop around but the NHC is now monitoring 3 areas:
Posted on 8/15/17 at 8:16 am to rds dc
91L is taking "that track".
The one we in LA and TX know too well.
The one we in LA and TX know too well.
Posted on 8/15/17 at 8:41 am to SeeeeK
quote:
How far in advance can you get info on a storm out there brewing?
You can't trust anything beyond 3-5 days and this year the models have been horrible at predicting genesis. So good luck even predicting if something will form in the 3-5 day period much less a month. I will be in Florida in 3 weeks so I hope nothing hits around that time. Even a weak storm ruins everything because it is just wet and miserable.
I am keeping a close eye on 91-L even if the models are backing off. They switched so fast and there is tons of time to switch back to development.
Posted on 8/15/17 at 9:08 am to rds dc
What do you mean by "backing off"?
Posted on 8/15/17 at 9:24 am to OldSouth
Probability of formation in the next 5 days is down to 40% for 91L compared to 60% yesterday. Conditions look less favorable for cyclone formation as the system approaches the Caribbean.
Posted on 8/15/17 at 9:29 am to ForeverLSU02
Last Labor Day we had a storm skirt the northern gulf
Posted on 8/15/17 at 9:36 am to Chad504boy
Gustav was also a Labor Day hurricane.
The system that flooded us last year was so extremely close to being a storm or hurricane. It was just slightly onshore the entire time as it moved over from Florida. Had it been a little further south then we would have had a bigger problem but who knows, maybe the rain wouldn't have been so bad.
The system that flooded us last year was so extremely close to being a storm or hurricane. It was just slightly onshore the entire time as it moved over from Florida. Had it been a little further south then we would have had a bigger problem but who knows, maybe the rain wouldn't have been so bad.
Posted on 8/15/17 at 9:55 am to Sneaky__Sally
quote:
which I haven't done in my five years of time in this city.
To be honest, there hasn't been a reason to evacuate in the past 5 yes. Issac included....until the recent events.
This post was edited on 8/15/17 at 9:56 am
Posted on 8/15/17 at 8:59 pm to rds dc
91L looks like it's hauling arse to the west. 
Don't really like the one that's currently curving upward towards Florida. Looking like it's time for the season to get super active already 4 systems in the Atlantic and we're not even in September yet. I think this season has been fairly active so far.
Don't really like the one that's currently curving upward towards Florida. Looking like it's time for the season to get super active already 4 systems in the Atlantic and we're not even in September yet. I think this season has been fairly active so far.
Posted on 8/15/17 at 9:55 pm to deuce985
91L is currently struggling with dry air but the models have slowly started to trend back towards development. The 00z Euro EPS basically dropped the system and then the 12z trended back towards development.
This post was edited on 8/16/17 at 8:25 am
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