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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:12 pm to
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
11332 posts
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:12 pm to
Just starting to have a little roll to it...

Posted by PhillyTiger90
Member since Dec 2015
10688 posts
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:15 pm to
Scary I was actually looking up dog friendly hotels earlier this week in the Alexandria/Natchitoches area just in case we get a scare this season.

Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115900 posts
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:16 pm to
I was hoping to see none of these threads.
Posted by CajunSoldier225
Member since Aug 2011
8990 posts
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:17 pm to
Posted by Tester1216
South Louisiana
Member since Jul 2018
22149 posts
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:18 pm to
quote:

Scary I was actually looking up dog friendly hotels earlier this week in the Alexandria/Natchitoches


You jinxed us all!!
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90629 posts
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:23 pm to
Looks like water temp conditions are about to get extremely favorable at the end of that gif in the southern Atlantic/Caribbean/gulf
Posted by Cajun367
S. Louisiana
Member since Oct 2017
1928 posts
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:28 pm to
Thats a very neat graphic. Where can you find it?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19810 posts
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:29 pm to
It's always interesting when something like this is rolling along but has basically no model support. So what are the models seeing? What are they missing? CIMSS analysis is showing some healthy low level vort (spin) with the 00z analysis, so that might shift the 00z global models some.

One thing we can look at now, is the old fashioned SHIPS model, it wasn't run at 18z but the 00z just published.



So a couple of things jump out, it shows steady strengthening, it shows shear being a "positive" (it is seeing a low shear environment) and dry air being a negative.

The global models are also seeing low shear and dry air. Without doing a deep dive, the global models are probably keeping this from developing because of dry air. Just a real quick and not very extensive look at things
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
11332 posts
Posted on 8/15/18 at 9:38 pm to
It's from the Univ of Wisconsin Space Science and Engineering Center

LINK
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
141180 posts
Posted on 8/15/18 at 10:03 pm to
quote:

Scary I was actually looking up dog friendly hotels earlier this week in the Alexandria/Natchitoches area just in case we get a scare this season.



come on up to my (current) hood
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62795 posts
Posted on 8/16/18 at 6:54 am to
TRopical Depression 3 formed 26 years ago today.

It became Hurricane Andrew.

Posted by Zephyrius
Wharton, La.
Member since Dec 2004
7939 posts
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:24 am to
Posted by Swagga
504
Member since Dec 2009
16147 posts
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:29 am to
JUST IN TIME FOR MY TRIP TO PUNTA CANA!!!
Posted by redneck
Los Suenos, Costa Rica
Member since Dec 2003
53612 posts
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:32 am to
what's the pacific looking like? We will be in Cabo marlin fishing September 1-8
Posted by Mud_Till_May
Member since Aug 2014
9685 posts
Posted on 8/16/18 at 7:57 am to
I WANT A HURRICANE SO BAD. last years was incredible. Ive never been through a storm like that.
Posted by Riolobo
On the lake
Member since Mar 2017
4275 posts
Posted on 8/16/18 at 8:03 am to
Will there be waves in Orange Beach for Labor Day and will this delay the opening of Bucees?
Posted by BoogaBear
Member since Jul 2013
5572 posts
Posted on 8/16/18 at 8:33 am to
Week long vacation at Cape San Blas starting on the 25th.

Please do nothing or keep going west.
Posted by DoUrden
UnderDark
Member since Oct 2011
25965 posts
Posted on 8/16/18 at 8:44 am to
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 8/16/18 at 8:48 am to
quote:

I just bought a pallet of bottled water and twelve cases of beanie weenies.

I've got two cases of MREs and a Lifestraw.

I'm good.
Posted by GeauxLSUGRL
Member since Nov 2014
699 posts
Posted on 8/16/18 at 9:18 am to
Bucees? One is opening??
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