re: Home prices are now contracting at levels only seen 2 times

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She just got her Tax bill and her house is valued at $450,000...

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The correlation between assessed tax value and market price is tenuous at best.

An item for sale is only worth what someone is willing to pay for said item.
Lots of people out there make not so smart choices.

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Prices in Houston are still going higher. It’s crazy what my neighbors continue to get for their homes

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Same here. On the one hand it’s nice to know you’ve got something of value. But the other, when does the bubble pop? Or a national trend like the OP hit here? Also, if they kept going up that tax nut gets bigger and bigger.

Our house has easily doubled in value. In the present market.

Would be nice to sell and store shite then live in apartment for 2 years to wait it out. Sweep in when it collapsed. If it doesn’t collapse though I’m living in an apartment until I move into a senior living apartment. Lol

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Home prices are now contracting at levels only seen 2 times. Both ended in deep recessions

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Does this mean I'll be able to build a shop at normal prices?

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I think 5% will be the floor which is a great rate but still cools things off from the highs we have seen.

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There’s a lot of people sitting on sidelines right now specifically Millennials and Gen Z who are either living in mommy and daddy’s basement or renting. Rates going from 7.x% to 5% even if it takes 18 months is just going to cause another buying frenzy which will elevate demand and prices for current homeowners who might consider selling but most have 3% or so rates so they won’t and it is going to keep supply low which is going to keep prices high. There’s no winning solution here for renters right now sans massive job losses. That’s it. Supply is so low these people are screwed whether rate is 7.x% or 5%.

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DFW isn't seeing it.

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Not true. My "value" has dropped 20% in the last year.

Example: neighbor's home two doors down: 2.5 years ago, no pool, 3 car garage, 4 br, 3 ba, 3450 sf sold for $825k.

A year ago, the house next to me, also same size home, no pool, but on a larger cornet lot, sold for $725k.

The value of my home, 325 more sf, with a pool, culdesac lot, custom workshop, was valued at $915k 2.5 years ago. Now it's down to $725.

That's a drop of 20% in value.

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Yes I understand all markets are local but national trends still mean something

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They do, but demand areas remain strong.

Even n certain decent parts of Louisiana, 500K houses have multiple offers at ask or above, before the open house concludes.

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2008 had a spike but it was more gradual and over a few years. 2004-2007 there was a spike.

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I’d be curious to see the same data with a bit more smoothing applied.

The graph doesn’t say, but it looks like it’s something like quarterly YoY changes. So we’re talking about.. ~7 quarters of very high price growth followed by 1 quarter of very high price decline? At first glance that strikes me more as volatility than a true correction, but I realize there are other metrics pointing in the same direction.

I don’t think predicting recession at this point is exactly going out on a limb, in any case. It seems likely that the bubble has to burst at some point.

Selfishly, as someone looking to buy in Raleigh, NC I could use some of this.

Prices haven’t budged

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rates up to 12% - 16% like during the Carter administration.

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You misspelled “Reagan.”